I’ve posted Entry #340 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called It Was the Widespread Belief in Buy-and-Hold Strategies That Caused the Runaway Bull Market.
Juicy Excerpt: The core point that is being made here — that stock valuations have remained high for a very long time — is 100 percent correct. I prefer to start counting in 1996 since prices were only high but not yet insanely high until then. But even using the later starting date leads to a finding that prices have remained dangerously high for two decades. If the danger warned of by Valuation-Informed Indexers has not wiped out investors in that amount of time, is it not fair to conclude that the dangers being warned of are not real? I have been crying “wolf!” since 1996. There comes a time when people stop listening to the boy who cries “wolf!” for a long time. Twenty years of false wolf warnings are enough to conclude that no wolf is coming.
Unless there is some explanation for why the wolf has taken longer to arrive this time than he has on any earlier occasion.