I’ve posted Entry #345 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Our Minds See Patterns Where They Don’t Exist and Fail to See Them Where They Do.
Juicy Excerpt: Our minds really do look for patterns to make order out of chaos. I think that the Buy-and-Holders are on to something important with that observation. But I believe that we also fail to see patterns that really do exist. I look at the pattern of valuation levels rising and falling in long-term hills and valleys for 145 years running and I see a pattern that I find compelling. It does not seem possible to me that that pattern could sustain itself for that long a time if prices followed the random walk perceived by the Buy-and-Holders.
The random walk is a pattern!
Is it one of those imaginary patterns that the Buy-and-Holders so often warn us about? I believe it is.