Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
So, it has made you act like a 12 year old and, therefore, unemployable?
Shiller showed in 1981 that valuations affect long-term returns. If that’s so, then stock investing risk is not stable but variable. Investors who want to keep their risk profiles constant MUST be open to changing their stock allocations in response to big valuation shifts.
Bogle did not make one change to the Buy-and-Hold strategy as a result of this “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) finding, a finding for which Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize. People who cannot admit mistakes should not be giving investing advice. This stuff matters. Get it wrong and you will end up hurting lots of people in big ways.
The longer you try to cover up a mistake, the more difficult it becomes for you to engage in constructive interactions with those seeking to hold you accountable, Hence your behavior on this thread. You are 36 years behind the times. It does not make me your enemy that I reminded you of what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research says. It makes me your friend.