Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
“Everything that you are describing is the sort of thing that you would expect to see when the P/E10 level is where it is today in the event that Shiller is right and stock investing really is a highly emotional endeavor.”
Everything I described shows that you made wrong decisions that resulted in failure. You continue to blame everything and everyone else for your problems. As the saying goes : ” When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging”.
If Shiller had published his Nobel-prize-winning research in 1921 rather than in 1981, we could have avoided all the human misery that we saw play out during the first Great Depression, Sammy.
I think we are a blessed people that we now have access to that research as well as to be living in a time of a communications revolution that permits us to spread the word far and wide in a very short amount of time (once we give ourselves permission to talk about these critically important issues!) It may be that we will not be able to avoid falling into the second Great Depression for all of the emotional reasons that see on display in the tone employed in many of the comments to this discussion thread. But what happens after that? After prices fall, we will all be working together to bring the economic crisis to an end. What happens then?
At that time, we are going to have to as a society come to terms with what we have done to ourselves by putting off this critically important national debate for 36 years. I won’t consider it a failure that the materials that I have gathered at my web site will be a huge aid in helping us all come to terms with what has happened. I think this is hugely important work. So I am going to continue putting forward my best efforts to get this critically important national debate launched at every web site on the internet.
None of this is personal from my end of the table in any way, shape or form. I consider you and all of your Goon pals as friends. I was once a Buy-and-Holder myself. But I strongly believe that as a nation we need to be talking these matters over and I see it as my job to make that happen. The more emotional you get in your opposition to the debate, the more convinced I become that a national debate is very, very, very much needed. Discussions of stock investing just shouldn’t be this emotional, not in a day in which a mountain of peer-reviewed research is available for us all to review.
My sincere take.
- “In the Event That Price Discipline Matters As Much in the Stock Market As It Does in Every Other Market That Has Ever Been Created, We Should Expect the Widespread Promotion of the Idea That Exercising Price Discipline Is Not Required When Buying Stocks to Bring About the Collapse of the Stock Market, Resulting In Collective Losses Large Enough to Bring on the Second Great Depression.”
- “The Losses That We Need to Cover as a Result of the Continued Promotion of Buy-and-Hold ‘Strategies’ are $24 Trillion, $6 Trillion More Than the Entire Federal Debt of $18 Trillion, Constituting All the Annual Budget Deficits Going Back to the Days of George Washington Added Together. Buy-and-Hold Is Truly Bad Stuff.”
- “The Bigger the Advance, the Harder It Is to Incorporate the New Way of Thinking Into the Mindsets of Millions of People. Valuation-Informed Indexing Is a HUGE Advance; It Is By Far the Biggest Advance in Our Understanding of How Stock Investing Works Ever Achieved in Our History. So, When You Take a Step Back and Try to Look at This Stuff Objectively, You Begin to See That Perhaps It Is Not So Terribly Shocking That It Has Taken 35 Years for Us to Turn the Huge Intellectual Advance That We Achieved in 1981 into a Flesh-and-Blood Reality that Helps Millions of People Live Far Richer Lives Than They Ever Before Imagined Possible.”
- “Recessions and Depressions Are Caused by the Widespread Promotion of Buy-and-Hold Strategies. Once We Let People Know What the Peer-Reviewed Research Says, We Have Solved the Problem of the Boom/Bust Cycle.”
- “As Of Today, I Honestly Do Not Feel That I Have Ever Been Unfairly Harsh in My Dealings With You Goons. But I Also Think That It Is Possible That There Are Things That I Just Cannot See Because of My Human Limitations. I May Look Through Some Earlier Discussions and See If I Can Identify Places Where I Have Been Unfair or Unkind. If I Can, I Hope That I Will Have the Courage to Own Up to Them Publicly.”
- “Until 1981, We Humans Did Not Have All the Pieces in Place to Know How Stock Investing Worked. In 1981, the Last Piece of the Intellectual Puzzle Snapped Into Place. Now We Had Available to Us Everything We Needed to for the First Time in History Offer Effective Investing Advice, Investing Advice That Would Help Us Avoid Bull Markets and the Bear Markets That Follow From Them and the Economic Crises That Follow From Bear Markets.”