I’ve posted Entry #353 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called Shiller Has Lost Confidence in His Earlier Understanding of How P/E10 Can Be Used to Time the Market.
Juicy Excerpt: What made me uneasy with Shiller’s comments was that he didn’t make any more effort than the Buy-and-Holders did to note that there was more than one way that things could go. It was certainly true that prices could continue to fall and my personal assessment was that that was the most likely scenario. But chiller’s work and the work of all of the researchers who have followed in his footsteps shows not only that long-term timing always works but also that short-term timing never does. Neither Shiller nor I nor my Buy-and-Hold friends nor anyone else could say for sure which way prices were headed. To offer truly useful advice, we needed to make that clear. I didn’t think that Shiller had done that and I said so in the podcast that I recorded at the time.