Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“Shiller ended up being a little off.”
Ok, so, like you, Shiller was wrong. I think I’m seeing a pattern here.
“The entire historical record says that we should expect another crash within the next three years.”
That’s exactly what you said 3 years ago. And since those last 3 years are now *part of the historical record*, you statement must be false.
“And we today are experiencing a level of overvaluation rarely seen in U.S. history”
You’re confusing high valuations (a fact, historically speaking) with overvaluations (a judgement that the market is wrong, in effect that you’re smarter than Wall Street).
You can do the same with bonds. A reasonable person observes: “bond valuations are historically high right now”. A guy who thinks he knows more about the future than he really does says: “Bond prices are overvalued! Bonds are due to crash at any moment! History must repeat!”
I certainly have made a judgment that the market is wrong, Anonymous.
I think it would be fair to say that you have made a judgment that the market is right.
You post in accord with your beliefs all the time, right?
Well, I intend to continue insisting on recognition of my right to do the same. Financial fraud is a felony and I don’t feel even a tiny bit comfortable going there.
I hope that works for you.