Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Every buy and holder? Can you give us @ link to just one failed portfolio? At the same time, can you show even one successful person that has implemented VII?
Take a look at all of the stock portfolios that existed in 1929. They all fell by a huge amount. The collective losses were large enough to bring on a Great Depression, That should never happen.
Once we have a widespread understanding of the importance of market timing, it will never happen again. All investors went to act in their self-interest. Show them how much the value proposition of stocks drops when prices reach insanely dangerous levels and they will lower their stock allocation at such times. Which will bring prices back to reasonable levels.
There can never be an out-of-control bull market in a world in which honest posting re Shiller’s Nobel-price-winning research is permitted. Which means that there can never be a bear market. Which means that there would in all likelihood never be an economic crisis. I can live with that.
ALL Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold portfolios are failures. Because failing to engage in market timing dramatically reduces long-term returns while dramatically increasing risk. Successful strategies do just the opposite. We should be permitting honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research at every site.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
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