From Buy/Hold to VII – A Rich Life http://arichlife.passionsaving.com The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does Thu, 17 Aug 2017 11:19:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.5 2004-2008 rob@passionsaving.com (A Rich Life) rob@passionsaving.com (A Rich Life) 1440 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/wp-content/plugins/podpress/images/powered_by_podpress.jpg A Rich Life http://arichlife.passionsaving.com 144 144 The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does A Rich Life A Rich Life rob@passionsaving.com no no “I Believe That There Will Come a Day When You Will See the Story of the 15-Year Cover-Up of the Errors in the Buy-and-Hold Retirement Studies on All the Major Political and Social Media Sites. But I Wouldn’t Dare to Say How Soon That Will Happen. Given the History, My Guess Today Is That We Are Not Going to See That Happen Until We See Another Price Crash That Shakes People Up.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/07/04/i-believe-that-there-will-come-a-day-when-you-will-see-the-story-of-the-15-year-cover-up-of-the-errors-in-the-buy-and-hold-retirement-studies-on-all-the-major-political-and-social-media-sites-but-i/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/07/04/i-believe-that-there-will-come-a-day-when-you-will-see-the-story-of-the-15-year-cover-up-of-the-errors-in-the-buy-and-hold-retirement-studies-on-all-the-major-political-and-social-media-sites-but-i/#comments Tue, 04 Jul 2017 11:06:57 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13366 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

You did not go to FinCon, presumably because you devoted all your time and energies in this new direction. When can we expect to see Rob Bennett 2.0 on all the major political and social media sites?

I believe that there will come a day when you will see the story of the 15-year cover-up of the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies on all the major political and social media sites. But I wouldn’t dare to say how soon that will happen. Given the history, my guess today is that we are not going to see that happen until we see another price crash that shakes people up. I of course entertain hopes that it will happen sooner because it would be better for me and for the entire country and even for you Goons for us to see it happen sooner. But I don’t put the odds of our seeing that little dream of mine come true at better than 50/50. I put the odds at a good bit less than 50/50.

I didn’t elect not to attend FinCon2016 because I didn’t have sufficient time and energies to do that as well as to get involved with political sites. I elected not to attend because I think we need to see groundwork done before people at FinCon will be open to the message. The purpose of contacting political sites is to lay that groundwork. So the two things are indeed connected. But it is more that I have come to a conclusion that one needs to be done before the other than that there is not enough time and energy available for both.

I sent one article to a non-investing site about one month ago. That article was not accepted. I would describe that submission as a test case. My goal once I get started on the new path will be to submit one article to a non-investing site each week until one gets accepted and attracts some attention. When the publicity ball gets rolling a bit (probably after the next crash, but perhaps sooner), I will pick up the pace to where I am submitting several articles each week. But until I see some forward movement, my expectation is that I will push myself to submit only one per week.

I am trying to get a few things out of the way before I submit the second one. The main thing is that I want to develop a list of sites that I will be submitting to. I have notes re this that I have been keeping for a few years. Every now and again, I see an article on the internet that makes me think “this would be a good site to submit something to.” I have not followed through in the past. Now I am going to start doing that. I would like to have a list of a good number of sites first. I expect to get to work on putting together the list next week. For this week, I have a few administrative things that I want to catch up on. But my guess is that I will put together the list next week and then send out the second item the following week.

I hope that helps a tiny bit, my good friend.

Rob

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“I Think We Have a Tiger By the Tale Here. I Think There Was Good Reason Why Shiller Was Awarded a Nobel Prize. I Know That There Are Tens of Thousands of Smart and Good People Who Have Important Things to Say re These Matters Who Have Thus Far Held Back From Saying Them for Fear of Offending the Buy-and-Holders and I Want to Hear What They Have to Say.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/06/26/i-think-we-have-a-tiger-by-the-tale-here-i-think-there-was-good-reason-why-shiller-was-awarded-a-nobel-prize-i-know-that-there-are-tens-of-thousands-of-smart-and-good-people-who-have-important-thi/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/06/26/i-think-we-have-a-tiger-by-the-tale-here-i-think-there-was-good-reason-why-shiller-was-awarded-a-nobel-prize-i-know-that-there-are-tens-of-thousands-of-smart-and-good-people-who-have-important-thi/#comments Mon, 26 Jun 2017 11:18:08 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13351 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:

Rob,

It is really sad to see you spending so much time making up stories and living in a fantasy, all to avoid working a job. You would think that reality would finally hit home after your financial plan turned out to be a disaster. After 15 years of unemployment, don’t you think it is time to get a job?

I think it is important that every single person who talks about stock investing in any capacity feel 100 percent free to state his or her sincere views exactly as he or she feels them, Sammy. I think that when we get to the point where everyone is doing that, we are going to see a huge advance in our collective understanding of how stock investing works in a very short amount of time. We have 36 years of peer-reviewed research to talk about that we have been holding back from exploring in an in-depth way out of deference to the hurt feelings of our Buy-and-Hold friends. When we get over that, we are going to make amazing strides.

And please don’t think that our Buy-and-Hold friends will not be every bit as excited about the advances as will be those of us who have come to feel grave doubts re the Buy-and-Hold project. Our Buy-and-Hold friends started out trying to do good and they in fact have done a great deal of good. When they are exposed on a regular basis to clear and firm and bold descriptions of the other side of the story, a lot of them are going to flip. Once they flip, they are going to be grateful for the learning experience that informed them. I flipped, so I know how it feels. I wouldn’t go back today to a belief in Buy-and-Hold for all the money in the world (unless it was the result of being PERSUADED that there is merit to Buy-and-Hold, not just the result of never having heard about a superior strategy).

I see this as a win/win/win/win/win. I am not even able to imagine any possible downside. You don’t see it that way today. I get it. 100 percent. But I am also 100 percent confident that you will get it when you make it to the other side. And that will happen only as the result of a learning experience that you very much want to avoid today. I think of myself as your friend, Sammy. You don’t think of me as a friend. But it is my sincere belief that we are friends and that we should be doing what we can to help each other out and that I should be acting on that core reality to the best of my ability.

Anyway, we will see how it all plays out following the crash. If I am proven wrong, then I am proven wrong. I think we have a tiger by the tale here. I think there was good reason why Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize. I know that there are tens of thousands of smart and good people who have important things to say re these matters who have thus far held back from saying them for fear of offending the Buy-and-Holders and I want to hear what they have to say. I believe strongly that on some level of consciousness you do too, you are just too afraid to open that door at this moment in time.

I wish you the best. Despite your nastiness, you have helped me to learn on many occasions. I am grateful. Anyone who helps me to learn is my friend for life. My entire life story tells me that I am right to feel that way. So I am going to go with that.

Rob

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“It’s Not Just Me, Sammy. Thousands of Our Fellow Community Members Have Asked That You Goons Dial It Back and Permit Honest Posting. I Have Had Numerous University Professors Contact Me and Tell Me That They Are Now Including Stuff That They Learned From Me in Their Courses. I Have Had Investment Advisors Call Me and Talk to Me for Hours About How They Can Help Their Clients With Valuation-Informed Indexing Insights. I Have Had Site Owners Who Banned Me From Their Sites Tell Me That They Personally Believe That I Have the Best Investing Site on the Internet.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/06/07/its-not-just-me-sammy-thousands-of-our-fellow-community-members-have-asked-that-you-goons-dial-it-back-and-permit-honest-posting-i-have-had-numerous-university-professors-contact-me-and-tell-me/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/06/07/its-not-just-me-sammy-thousands-of-our-fellow-community-members-have-asked-that-you-goons-dial-it-back-and-permit-honest-posting-i-have-had-numerous-university-professors-contact-me-and-tell-me/#comments Wed, 07 Jun 2017 11:28:25 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13290 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:

You say the same thing about everyone else. What is more likely? Is everyone lying or is Rob Bennett delusional? I have think we all know the answer to that question.

It’s not just me, Sammy. Thousands of our fellow community members have asked that you Goons dial it back and permit honest posting. I have had numerous university professors contact me and tell me that they are now including stuff that they learned from me in their courses. I have had investment advisors call me and talk to me for hours about how they can help their clients with Valuation-Informed Indexing insights. I have had site owners who banned me from their sites tell me that they personally believe that I have the best investing site on the internet and that my work has great value. I had a academic researcher who learned about me by reading my stuff on the internet contact me and tell me that he would like to do research with me; our work was published in a peer-reviewed journal.

These sorts of things don’t happen when there is nothing there. There is something very important going on here.

We have a turf fight on our hands. All of the evidence points toward Valuation-Informed Indexing. But the Buy-and-Holders are already making a living pushing Buy-and-Hold and cannot bear the thought of acknowledging that they have been getting it wrong all these years. So we are facing a stiff head wind at this moment in time.

The stuff head wind stops following the next price crash. We will then have millions of middle-class investors whose lives will have been destroyed. They are going to be looking for answers. We have them. Those of us who follow the peer-reviewed research in this field have known what really works for 36 years now.

It is all going to come out. Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize. Lots of good and smart people understand that he did something very important. Those people are going to work up the courage to speak out following the next price crash. Why wouldn’t they? Nobody is going to want to hear the phrase “Buy-and-Hold” following the next price crash. It will be considered an obscene phrase at that time.

The good news here is 50 times more good than the bad news here is bad. The last 36 years of peer-reviewed research is the most important 36 years of peer-reviewed research in the history of investing analysis. We are very close. We are on the one-yard line. All we need today is a little push to give us courage to get through the abusive stuff and the sense of urgency brought on by the next price crash will provide us with the little push we need.

You and I will be working together then, Sammy. And Bogle and Shiller will be working together too. We all will be working together. That’s how it should have been all along. We all need to know how to invest effectively. Soon that’s how it will be going down in the real world and not just in my dreams.

Patience, grasshopper! You need to have a little faith in people, my good friend.

Rob

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“The First Step Is the Hardest Step. The First Step Is Acknowledging That Discussions Are Needed. Implicit in the First Step Is an Acknowledgment of at Least the POSSIBILITY That a Mistake Was Made. Once That Step Is Taken, the Learning Process Begins and All the Other Steps Come Easier.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/05/30/the-first-step-is-the-hardest-step-the-first-step-is-acknowledging-that-discussions-are-needed-implicit-in-the-first-step-is-an-acknowledgment-of-at-least-the-possibility-that-a-mistake-was-made/ Tue, 30 May 2017 11:10:43 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13275 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“There’s only one thing that I believe that you don’t, Sammy — I believe that valuations affect long-term returns.”

Based on the comments over at Valuewalk, I would say it is more than one thing you don’t agree on.

The only point of substance re which we disagree relates to valuations — I believe that valuations affect long-term returns (as shown by Shiller’s research) and you believe that the market is efficient (as some believe was shown by Fama’s research). There is nothing else.

I suppose you are referring to differences we have re the use of death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs — the financial fraud stuff. All of that stuff is process-oriented. You wouldn’t believe in any of that stuff either if you did not feel that your back is against the wall. You rationalize financial fraud tactics because you believe that the market is efficient and this belief is so core to your existence that you cannot bear to give it up. So, when I challenge this belief, you resort to stuff that in other circumstances you would condemn. All of our process-oriented differences relate back to the one substance-oriented difference that is the driver of the entire debate.

The only way out is to resolve our differences on the substantive issue. To do that, we need to talk things over. That’s how people learn. Learning cannot take place without exchanges of information. So it is only by having open discussions that we can resolve the substantive matter.

It can’t be just me representing the Valuation-Informed Indexing “side” of the debate. You need to hear lots of different perspectives on lots of different questions. That’s an essential part of the learning process too. We are going to need to have honest and open discussions at every site on the internet. We are going to have to stop discouraging open debate on these matters and start encouraging it. We all need to hear people from all sides expressing their sincere views on every possible question.

That’s the only way out. I believe that these discussions will lead to a very good place. The first step is the hardest step. The first step is acknowledging that discussions are needed. Implicit in the first step is an acknowledgment of at least the POSSIBILITY that a mistake was made. Once that step is taken, the learning process begins and all the other steps come easier.

That’s it. I believe that a mistake was made in good faith and that it was very hard for the people who made the mistake to acknowledge it because the stakes here are so high. And so people engaged in a cover-up and even included themselves in the group that must be blocked from learning the realities. Now we have a big mess on our hands. And a huge opportunity to advance human understanding of a critically important matter as well.

Every day of delay hurts us all. We all want the same things. We all should be working together.

It is not possible that Fama and Shiller are both right. The came to opposite conclusions about how stock investing works. Both were awarded Nobel prizes. But one of the two got things terribly, terribly wrong. We need as a society to figure out which one of the two it was who got things right and which one of the two it was who got things wrong. We all need to pull together and get down to the job of resolving the differences between these two Nobel prize winners. We need to begin doing that by the close of business today.

This is my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.

I naturally wish you tall he best that this life has to offer a person, old friend.

Rob

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“We Need to Want to Move in a Positive Direction to Make Forward Progress. We of Course All Want the Same Thing Deep Inside. But at This Moment in Time a Lot of Us Are Compromised Because We Have Big Investments in Buy-and-Hold. Perhaps We Have Made a Career Promoting It. Or Perhaps We Have Our Names on Articles Advocating It. Or Perhaps We Have Followed It Ourselves and Experience Emotional Pain to Even Consider the Possibility That We Got Investing Wrong a Number of Years Back. All of Those Obstacles to Progress Vanish Into the Mist When the Pain of Staying on the Mistaken Course Becomes Too Great for Us to Ignore.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/05/29/we-need-to-want-to-move-in-a-positive-direction-to-make-forward-progress-we-of-course-all-want-the-same-thing-deep-inside-but-at-this-moment-in-time-a-lot-of-us-are-compromised-because-we-have-big/ Mon, 29 May 2017 11:22:52 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13272 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:

Of course, if you have a new source of information and can provide links (other than your comments), we would be happy to hear it. Everyone is still waiting for your link to the so called “death threats”, so that might be a good start.

I said what I have to say up above, Sammy.

“Everyone” will decide based on that. And of course some of “everyone” will make one call today, when the flaws in the Buy-and-Hold strategy haven’t done all that much obvious harm, and a different call in the days following the next price crash, when the harm done will be too obvious for even a single one of us to rationalize away.

We will talk about the death threats and lots of other stuff then. But we won’t be engaging in silly discussions about links when we can figure out the basics of what is going on just by looking at the discussion thread that appears before our eyes at the very moment. When we do it that way, things will move forward at a much quicker pace and in a much more positive and constructive and life-affimring direction.

We need to want to move in a positive direction to make forward progress. We of course all want the same thing deep inside. But at this moment in time a lot of us are compromised because we have big investments in Buy-and-Hold. Perhaps we have made a career promoting it. Or perhaps we have our names on articles advocating it. Or perhaps we have followed it ourselves and experience emotional pain to even consider the possibility that we got investing wrong a number of years back when we first became Buy-and-Holders. Or perhaps we encouraged our friends to become Buy-and-Holders and feel shame about that.

All of those obstacles to progress vanish into the mist when the pain of staying on the mistaken course becomes too great for us to ignore. Then we will all be united and we will move forward very quickly and we won’t need to be fretting about silly links.

These are my sincere thoughts re these terribly important matters, in any event.

I wish you the best of luck in all of your future life endeavors, my good friend.

Rob

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“My Personal Guess As to How the Criminal Side of This Will Be Addressed Is That Following the Next Price Crash a Group of Responsible People in the Field Will Be Arguing for an Amnesty That Would Need to Go Through Congress. The Amnesty Will Let a Lot of People Off the Criminal Hook While Containing Funding to Aid the Transition to Valuation-Informed Indexing.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/05/23/my-personal-guess-as-to-how-the-criminal-side-of-this-will-be-addressed-is-that-following-the-next-price-crash-a-group-of-responsible-people-in-the-field-will-be-arguing-for-an-amnesty-that-would-ne/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/05/23/my-personal-guess-as-to-how-the-criminal-side-of-this-will-be-addressed-is-that-following-the-next-price-crash-a-group-of-responsible-people-in-the-field-will-be-arguing-for-an-amnesty-that-would-ne/#comments Tue, 23 May 2017 11:11:41 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13264 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Don’t you need the criminal charges in order to get on the front page of the New York Times? This seems to be the only way to get that $500 million, so if you don’t bring charges, I don’t see how you get your $500 million.

I’m going to tell the story, Anonymous.

Part of the story is financial fraud. So I am going to say that. That’s certainly not the entire story. I certainly am going to tell the other parts as well, some of which reflect very well on all of my Buy-and-Hold friends and even on my Goon friends in some cases. I’ll tell it all. I won’t leave out the financial fraud aspects of the story but I don’t intend to focus on them. My aim is to tell the story in a balanced way, not leaving important parts out because I am afraid to address them but also not dwelling on those aspects of the story because of some personal grudge or anything like that.

Will criminal charges be brought as the story gets out? I believe so. But I won’t be bringing them. And I won’t be leading an effort to see that they are brought. To the extent that I play any role re the bringing of the criminal charges, I expect that my role is going to be to argue for a deemphasis on that part of the story. I see it as my job to bring us all together. So I would prefer to focus on more positive aspects of the story and to try to explain the pressures that my Buy-and-Hold friends and my Goon friends have felt as a partial explanation for their bad behavior. I cannot control how others react to those efforts. So I am not making any promises as to how things will turn out. But I can say that my personal intent is to praise the Buy-and-Holders and to try to make the people who will be angry at them following the next price crash understand the difficult circumstances that influenced many of their decisions.

My personal guess as to how the criminal side of this will be addressed is that following the next price crash a group of responsible people in the field will be arguing for an amnesty that would need to go through Congress. The amnesty will let a lot of people off the criminal hook while containing funding to aid the transition to Valuation-Informed Indexing. Please understand that that is pure speculation. I have no inside knowledge re this aspect of things. I am just putting forward a guess by someone who has been involved in this since the first day as to how it might make sense for us to proceed as a society in a way that gets the important work done that we need to get done in a manner that all parties can accept.

The $500 million is for a settlement of civil claims. It is a separate matter from the criminal charges. I believe that we will likely need a legislatively adopted amnesty to address the criminal side of this because that is so sensitive a matter. I don’t see the $500 million settlement payment as being such a big problem. That’s just money. The Wall Street Con Men have tons of money. They will of course want me working with them for p.r. purposes as well as for lots of other reasons Paying $500 million to make that happen quickly is nothing for them. I don’t see any problems in that area once the story gets out.

I hope that helps a bit.

Rob

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“I Like Our System of Justice and I Am Going to Continue to Count on It to Take Us All to a Better Place re These Matters. I Think it Would be Fair to Say That When We All Get to the Other Side Together There Won’t Be One Person Saying That It Was Not Worth What It Took to Accomplish the Journey.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/04/17/i-like-our-system-of-justice-and-i-am-going-to-continue-to-count-on-it-to-take-us-all-to-a-better-place-re-these-matters-i-think-it-would-be-fair-to-say-that-when-we-all-get-to-the-other-side-toge/ Mon, 17 Apr 2017 11:40:33 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13206 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:

Most people’s “personal financial circumstances” are private. But yours are extremely relevant, as you are advocating an investment strategy. To establish even a sliver of credibility, you have to explain how that strategy has benefited you. You seem to think typing words is all you need.

As to the recurring question, which you obviously want to go away, just tell the truth: “I don’t want a job. Jobs suck. 15 years with no income, and I’m still eating, so obviously I don’t need a job. And I don’t care what you or anyone else thinks about that. Next question.”

I have corrected you Goons thousands of times re the things that you misstate about my personal financial circumstances. After you continued to repeat the same lies thousands of times, I gave up asking for corrections and just started ignoring the false statements.

There’s no reasonable person who would have handled it any other way. We will be going to court following the next price crash. There will be reasonable people sitting in the jury box and they will hear both sides in one place and render reasonable judgments. You will be given all the protections that apply for people who have civil cases for defamation brought against them. Does that work for you, Dan?

I don’t see how I can do any better for you. That is how our system of justice works. If you don’t like how our system of justice works, it is my strongly held belief that you are going to have to find some other country in which to live.

I like our system of justice and I am going to continue to count on it to take us all to a better place re these matters. It has taken us some time to get there but I think that it would be fair to say that we are working through the process, slowly but surely. It is unfortunate that it has taken us nearly 15 years (!) to get there but the full reality is that the good stuff here is 50 times more good than the bad stuff here is bad. So I think it would be fair to say that when we all get to the other side together there won’t be one person saying that it was not worth what it took to accomplish the journey. I have a funny feeling that even you Goons will come around in the end re that one.

But we’ll see, you know? Hang in there, man. We’ve got a tiger by the tale re this one. I am 100 percent sure re that much. Holy moly!

Rob

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“Katherine Graham Saw That the Public Needed the Truth Even If It Didn’t Bring in Money in the Short Term and She Could Tell By the Way That Nixon Was Reacting to Questions That Challenged His Version of Events That There Was a Cover-Up Going On. So She Backed Up Those Two Reporters And in the Long Run She Built a Media Empire By Doing It.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/04/07/katherine-graham-saw-that-the-public-needed-the-truth-even-if-it-didnt-bring-in-money-in-the-short-term-and-she-could-tell-by-the-way-that-nixon-was-reacting-to-questions-that-challenged-his-versi/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/04/07/katherine-graham-saw-that-the-public-needed-the-truth-even-if-it-didnt-bring-in-money-in-the-short-term-and-she-could-tell-by-the-way-that-nixon-was-reacting-to-questions-that-challenged-his-versi/#comments Fri, 07 Apr 2017 10:49:12 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13194 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:

So, you agree with me that it has been a disaster.

Beyond that, the rest of your post is a fantasy.

Again, why have you refused to get a job that provides you an income?

I agree that in personal financial terms it has been a disaster. That just tells us how important an advance this is. If this were some small thing, there would be no opposition and the money would have been rolling in all along. The Buy-and-Holders fight this HARD. That shows us how worried they are that Valuation-Informed Indexing will catch on if people are permitted to hear about it in non-abusive back-and-forth discussions. We have a tiger by the tale here, Sammy.

The Washington Post was a small newspaper in the days before Watergate. I think that today it would be fair to describe it as the second or third most influential newspaper in the United States (behind the New York Times and possible the Wall Street Journal). Breaking the Watergate story obviously made a huge difference in that paper’s fortunes. But how much money do you think their pursuit of the Watergate story brought in to the paper in the early months of the reporters’ investigations?

In the early days, not one other newspaper was willing to commit the resources to investigate that earth-shaking story. The New York Times had one reporter on it, the Post had two, and that was it. Everyone else said it was a waste of time, that it would never amount to anything, that if anything it might bring the papers that followed it down because it made everything they said look suspect and there might be lawsuits brought against them.

Why did Katherine Graham stick at it? She understood what the journalism profession is all about. It’s not about retyping press releases. It is about telling readers things they need to know. Telling them what they already know does not advance the ball. Telling them what they want to know when it isn’t true sets them back. The public wanted to hear that Nixon was telling the truth. And every paper other than the Washington Post saw that the money was in going along with that story. But Graham saw hat the public needed the truth even if it didn’t bing in money in the short term and she could tell by the way that Nixon was reacting to questions that challenged his version of events that there was a cover-up going on. So she backed up those two reporters and in the long run she built a media empire by doing it.

I haven’t made a penny. That much is so. But the reason why I have not made a penny is not that there is nothing here. I know that because thousands have told me how much they want to be able to hear the truth about stock investing and because I know that those thousands that I have met on a few internet discussion boards represent millions out in the real world. Going 15 years without making a penny and then making $500 million in a settlement is not such a bad deal financially, Sammy. I can live with it, you know? I never in a million years would have chosen this path. But I am willing to play the cards that I was dealt re a matter of such great importance.

There’s plenty of money in this. We are going to need to rewrite all the economics textbooks once this gets written up on the front page of the New York Times. That’s going to bring about a huge economic advance. There are going to be thousands of people making fortunes from this once we get the ball rolling forward in a big way. All we need to do that is to get about 10 people to stand up to you Goons. Then it just happens. The internet already exists for us to use to make this go viral times 5,000.

It’s a process, Sammy. We both know how this is going to end up. If you didn’t know deep in your heart how things are going to play out following the next crash, you wouldn’t behave the way you do. You are in desperate circumstances. I can afford to be patient and just let things turn by themselves. I can afford to reach out the hand of kindness to you and offer to help you out in any way possible. Sadly, you do not feel that you can afford to accept the offer given what had already gone down over the first 15 years.

So be it, you know? If I don’t pick up that $500 million sitting there on the sidewalk in front of me, someone else will. It makes no sense to me to walk away without first picking it up. The Buy-and-Holders would say that there isn’t $500 million sitting on the sidewalk because it is isn’t rational that there would be, that if there really were $500 million sitting on the sidewalk someone would have picked it up by now. I agree that that would be the rational thing to do and it is indeed perplexing to me why there are not lots of others trying to pick up that money ahead of me. But I know from lots of experience in life that the humans just ain’t rational creatures and any belief system rooted in an insistence that they are is just going to let me down. It’s crazy that that money is still sitting there 15 years later but that’s just the reality crazy or not.

You are not rational, Sammy. You prove it with every post you advance. I’m not either. It works both ways. But at least I am acknowledging my irrationality and trying to do something about it by engaging in friendly back-and-forth discussions with those who disagree with me re how stock investing works. You do not possess the ability to do that. That tells me (rightly or wrongly) that I am one step ahead of you, that I am at least capable of acknowledging my irrationality and thereby of taking steps to cope with it and protect myself financially. I believe that millions need to do that and I know from the thousands who have already told me so that there are millions who want to get about the process of learning how to do that. I expect that those millions are going to make me a very, very wealthy man not too many days in the future now.

But we are just going to have to wait and see how it plays out in the real world. I could be wrong. It has been known to happen. If I were wrong again re this matter, I would probably be deep in self-denial and would be the last person on Planet Earth to see it. It is possible that that is what is happening. I don’t think so. I very much do not think so. But we are just going to have to wait and see how it all plays out following the next price crash (presuming that there really is another one coming).

I know with 100 percent certainty that I don’t want to be one of those who didn’t have the courage to speak up BEFORE the crash hurt. If another one is coming (and I sincerely believe that that is the case), then I at least want to be able to say that I did everything I could at a time when those efforts could do some real good.

I hope that helps a bit.

Rob

 

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“Even If My Site Did Not Exist, This Would Get Out. Shiller’s Book Is Still Out There. The Research That I Co-Authored With Wade Pfau Is Still Out There. Shiller’s Nobel Prize Is Still Out There. The Massive Act of Financial Fraud Is Eventually Going To Be Written Up On the Front Page of the New York Times Regardless of Anything I Do.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/02/03/even-if-my-site-did-not-exist-this-would-get-out-shillers-book-is-still-out-there-the-research-that-i-co-authored-with-wade-pfau-is-still-out-there-shillers-nobel-prize-is-stil/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/02/03/even-if-my-site-did-not-exist-this-would-get-out-shillers-book-is-still-out-there-the-research-that-i-co-authored-with-wade-pfau-is-still-out-there-shillers-nobel-prize-is-stil/#comments Fri, 03 Feb 2017 11:17:31 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13087 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

You could help out Bogle and the goons by not filings charges and by not trying to after them for settlement payments. Then all would be well. What do you think about that? Consider it a Christmas gift.

I am going to post honestly about what the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research says. If I do anything else, I am committing financial fraud myself. So long as I do that, the word is going to get out about the 35-year cover-up. Probably not today or tomorrow. But following the next price crash. I am not the United States. When you commit a crime, you are committing the crime against the people of the United States. I don’t personally have much to do with it.

The criminal acts are detailed at my site, that’s pretty much the extent of my involvement re the criminal side of this. But even if my site did not exist, this would get out. Shiller’s book is still out there. The research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau is still out there. Shiller’s Nobel prize is still out there. The massive act of financial fraud is eventually going to be written up on the front page of the New York Times regardless of anything I do.

The full reality is that it is probably a plus that I have detailed the criminal acts at this site. I make an effort to put the criminal acts in the best possible light. I say that Bogle’s mistake was the product of cognitive dissonance. How many people do you think there will be saying that following the next price crash? I have said it on numerous occasions. And you can point to time-stamped posts in which I said it and you can say “this is a fellow who had no reason to be biased in favor of the Wall Street Con Men or the members of their various Goon Squads who was saying this.” So my posts have a high degree of credibility. And I think you can point to some of the things that you Goons said to show that there really was cognitive dissonance at play.

The cognitive dissonance play is the best play you have. And the materials at this site help you make that play. The materials at this site do not really hurt you. They reveal the truth. The truth has certain aspects that put you in a bad light. But the truth also has certain aspects that put you in a good light or at least in a not-so-bad light. You can use the materials at this site to develop a defense that I think might cause a good number of reasonable people to react in a moderate way. And I am 100 percent happy to encourage people to look at things in that sort of way, in a way that works to your favor.

Look at Wade Pfau. He is a very smart guy. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics. He was skeptical about a lot of things that I said in the early days. Even today I believe that he is skeptical about some things I say. You can point to someone like him and argue that, if that guy didn’t get it, how could we be expected to get it? You can point to John Walter Russell. John asked that we use phony numbers on the Risk Evaluator because he found the real numbers too shocking. John was as honest as the day is long. But he felt enough social pressure that he asked that we use phony numbers.

You can even look at my history. I was a proud Buy-and-Holder at one time. I once speculated that the SWR at the top of the bubble was probably somewhere around 3 percent. This stuff is not easy. It is easy in a way. It is intellectually easy. But it is very, very, very hard emotionally. That is your defense. You tell people that “we really did believe in it and we did not want to see people hurt and so we did some things that might seem wrong looking back but that seemed to make sense to a lot of us at the time we did them.” I am not saying that that gets you off 100 percent. But I believe that it is best you can do at this point in the proceedings. It is not a crazy position. And it is something that I can back you up on. If someone in my position feels okay backing you up, lots of people will feel okay backing you up.

We are looking at something very big here. It’s hardly possible for the human mind to let in how big this is. Again, look at Wade Pfau. He was AMAZED when this stuff started to click for him. This is like harnessing the power of the silicon chip. The goal is not to put people in prison. That’s petty. The goal is to get the word out, to improve everyone’s life in a very big way. Our problem is to figure out how we do that without having people go to prison for a long time. The answer is to focus on the good being done and thereby try to get the focus away from the 14-year delay, which is a big deal but perhaps is not as big a deal as it at first seems when you put things in perspective and consider how huge an advance it is we are looking at here.

Unlike the criminal actions, the civil suits are my thing. It is my aim to approach those in a generous spirit. I obviously expect to be paid for my work and this is very, very important work that caused me a lot of trouble for a long time. I am going to be paid very well. I don’t know how much Steve Jobs or Bill Gates ended up with but I am sure that we are talking about a numbers in the hundreds of millions. This is a lot bigger. So the $500 million figure that I have advanced is not at all out of line.

And I have offered to direct 10 percent of that to helping get the word out (by promoting my site and by funding blogs that would explore different aspects of the VII question). I can understand people not wanting to go to prison. I cannot understand the Wall Street Con Men being too worried about a payment of $500 million. These people have lots of money. Paying the $500 million will revitalize the entire industry. It helps everyone. And it puts them in a good light. I don’t see much of an issue there.

We cannot go back in time. If I could push a button and take us back in time, I would push the button. We have to deal with the world as it exists and make choices that work the best for every single person involved. That’s my aim. The good here is 50 times more good than the bad here is bad. So if we all approach this in the right spirit I am 100 percent confident that we will all end up in a very good place.

The entire thing is a Christmas gift. We need to start looking at it that way. Learning new things is wonderful. This is an advance. There is nothing even a tiny bit bad about it. We all just need to let that in.

Rob

 

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“You Tell Me Something That I Can Do That Would Help Bogle Out and That Would Help You Goons Out and I Will Be On It in Two Seconds. Bogle and You Goons Have Made Such a Mess of Things That There Are No 100 Percent Good Solutions Available to Us.” http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/02/02/you-tell-me-something-that-i-can-do-that-would-help-bogle-out-and-that-would-help-you-goons-out-and-i-will-be-on-it-in-two-seconds-bogle-and-you-goons-have-made-such-a-mess-of-things-that-there-are/ http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2017/02/02/you-tell-me-something-that-i-can-do-that-would-help-bogle-out-and-that-would-help-you-goons-out-and-i-will-be-on-it-in-two-seconds-bogle-and-you-goons-have-made-such-a-mess-of-things-that-there-are/#comments Thu, 02 Feb 2017 11:56:05 +0000 http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/?p=13085 Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Maybe you send send him a letter letting him know he has a chance to reduce his prison sentence and a lower settlement amount if he responds by close of business.

That’s the approach that I’ve tried with you Goons, Anonymous. It hasn’t done the trick. Surprise! Surprise!

People don’t like to go to prison AT ALL, you know?

I get it. I wouldn’t want to go to prison. If I were going to go to prison when people learned the realities of stock investing, I might want to block people from learning the realities of stock investing too. I hope that I wouldn’t do something like that. But I think it would be fair to say that I would be temped. Nobody likes to go to prison.

What do you propose that I do about it? I didn’t create this situation. It developed over time and it was well in place long before I showed up on the scene. I have on many occasions offered to do anything in my power to help out the Wall Street Con Men and you Goons so long as it does not require me to travel to the wrong side of the Felony Line myself. I am obviously not willing to do that. You can certainly understand why I would not want to go to prison myself, right?

You tell me something that I can do that would help Bogle out and that would help you Goons out and I will be on it in two seconds, Anonymous. I ask for nothing in return. It’s the right thing to do and it’s what I want to do. So all you have to do is to tell me what you want and it’s as good as done. The problem is that there is nothing that you can suggest. Bogle and you Goons have made such a mess of things that there are no 100 percent good solutions available to us at this point in the proceedings.

All that I can do is all that I can do. While there is no perfect path available to us, there are better paths and worse paths. You identify the path that Bogle and you consider the best path possible given where things stand today, and I am on it. That’s the best offer that I can make. It is not possible for the rational human mind to imagine how someone in my position could offer you a better deal than that. The most appealing deal that can be imagined by the human mind is the one that I offer you.

And I of course wish both Bogle and you Goons all the best that this life has to offer a person as well.

Rob

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