Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Remember when Wade said this: “ What is Step 2? There isn’t one. You will still be in the same position as you’ve been in for the last 10 years.”
He was wrong. You are not in the same position as 10 years ago. You are in a much worse position. Your savings are now depleted, your wife divorced you and you lost your house. It is often said that drug addicts and alcoholics finally seek help when they hit rock bottom. You have hit rock bottom, yet your are so far gone that you can’t even deal with the reality of the situation. You have experienced a major failure and your future is bleak, unless there is some kind of miracle.
Woe is me, Anonymous.
The miracle is the learning process that is taking place in the background as we speak. It’s been going on for 42 years now. No, it has not yet come to full fruition. I obviously wish that it had. But for every negative thing that you can point to in “defense” of the suppression of discussion of the last 42 years of peer-reviewed research, I can point to 20 positive things that show why it is so important that we keep in mind why we permit honest posting re the research in every other field.
We are not a bad people. We just are not. We are not a perfect people. But we are a fundamentally good people. So we all need to count our blessings (while not losing sight of the weaknesses that have been brought to our attention and that need to be addressed) and soldier on to the best of our ability. That’s where I am coming from re this thing in any event.
Step Two is opening every site on the internet to honest posting re the past 42 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. We are close. I believe that it will happens in the days (it may take years of days, of course) following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis. Given that today’s CAPE value is 31, there is good reason to believe that we are close. We are obviously not living in the promised land today. But we are close. So I solder on. I hope that that works for you.
Saying that there is no Step Two is an expression of cynicism. If it really were so that there is no possibility that we could ever again as a nation of people advance in our understanding of how stock investing works, we should just shut down all the peer-reviewed journals. We haven’t done that. Why? Because we believe in some level of consciousness that further learning experiences are possible, that that excitement that Wade felt when he declared that “Yes, Virginia, Valuation Informed Indexing works!” is real and important. I want millions of people to be able to experience that flood of good feeling that I saw Wade experience when we were working on our research together.
I believe that Wade will flip back in the days following the onset of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis and that we will have more fun times together. If I were king of the world, he never would have felt even a tiny flicker of concern that anything bad would happen to him if he did honest research in this field. We need more people doing honest research, not fewer. The last thing we need is more people seeking to avoid having your abusiveness directed at us by doing what it takes to appease you Goons. So I make an effort not to go there.
I believe in being polite. So I do that. But I continue to say that I believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. When everyone who works in this field feels 100 percent comfortable saying that at every site on the internet, we all will be in a far better place than we are in today. Getting safe withdrawal rates right matters. The people who use retirement studies for help in planning their retirements matter.
That’s where I am coming from re this one, in any event. My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Rob
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