A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don\’t Work — Here’s What Does

Podcast #27 — The Efficient Market Theory Is a Big Bunch of Hooey

Published in November 7th, 2008

Posted by Rob in Experts, Investing Strategy, Passive Investing, Podcasts

I’ve added Podcast #27 to the “RobCasts” section of the site. This one is called The Efficient Market Theory is a Big Bunch of Hooey.
Investing “experts” have known that the Efficient Market Theory is full of holes for a long time. It’s time that they begin sharing what the academic literature has been saying for [...]

Podcast #13 — Recessions Don’t Cause Market Turmoil, Market Turmoil Causes Recessions

Published in September 22nd, 2008

Posted by Rob in Bear Markets, Investing Strategy, Podcasts, Rational Investing

2 Comments

I’ve added Podcast #13 to the “RobCasts” section of the site. This one is entitled Recessions Don’t Cause Market Turmoil, Market Turmoil Causes Recessions.
Rational Investors don’t go with a high stock allocation when the long-term value proposition for stocks is low. They just don’t.

Buzz Updates

Published in August 25th, 2008

Posted by Rob in Buzz Updates, Community, Investing Strategy

No Comments

1) I post a Letter to the Editor at the www.Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com site entitled Article on Capitalization-Weighted Stock/Bond Allocations. I say: “Cash is not the same thing as stocks or bonds. Cash has economic value. It should be included in the mix.”
2) I post a Letter to the Editor at the www.Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com site entitled P/E10 Predictions [...]

Should You Resist Hunches Or Yield to Them?

Published in August 5th, 2008

Posted by Rob in Investing Strategy, Investor Psychology, Rational Investing

No Comments

Neither.
You should explore them. You should try to figure out where they are coming from, what they mean.
Hunches are not the product of logic. In that sense they are irrational.
But some hunches represent a sort of super-logic. There are circumstances in which a hunch can permit you to jump over the limits of pseudo-logic to [...]

Getting Excited About Low Returns

Published in July 22nd, 2008

Posted by Rob in Investing Strategy, TIPS/IBonds/CDs

No Comments

Community members have told me that they find it “depressing” to invest in TIPS, IBonds or CDs at a time when the returns paid on them are as low as those that apply today. I don’t think you should find today’s low returns depressing. I think you should find them exciting. The low returns that [...]

My First Podcast — Buy-and-Hold Cannot Work

Published in July 18th, 2008

Posted by Rob in Investing Strategy, Podcasts

2 Comments

I’ve created a new section of the site entitled “RobCasts” to house Personal Finance Podcasts that I will be recording in the days and weeks and months and years to come. I’ve also posted the first podcast, which is entitled Buy-and-Hold Cannot Work — Here’s Why.
Today’s Passion: The Buzz section contains an audio recording of [...]

The Historical Data Flips!

Published in July 16th, 2008

Posted by Rob in Investing Strategy, P/E10, Passive Investing, SWRs

2 Comments

Drip Guy made a good point in a post he put to the Goon Central board a few weeks ago. Ataloss argued that the reason why I say that the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate (SWR) studies are analytically invalid is that I don’t approve of relying on historical stock-return data to determine the SWR. Drip Guy [...]

“For People Who Like to Take a 30,000-Foot View
of Investing, This Is a Very Handy Little Tool”

Published in July 11th, 2008

Posted by Rob in Community, Investing Strategy, Return Predictor

4 Comments

Felix Salmon posted a nicely balanced write-up of The Stock-Return Predictor at his Market Movers blog earlier this week. His blog entry is entitled: “A Look at Long-Term Stock Valuations.”
Juicy Excerpt: Think of Rob as a buy-and-hold kinda guy with very infrequent reallocations, just like most sensible financial advisers. But Rob’s reallocations are really infrequent: [...]

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