Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“Mike Piper promotes Buy-and-Hold. It follows that Mike Piper is a liar.”
Wow! Glad to see you are still able to rock the Major League Mania, there, Hocus!
Okay, Mr. X.
Robert Shiller is the one who published peer-reviewed research in 1981 showing that valuations affect long-term returns. If Shiller’s research is legitimate (he was awarded a Nobel prize), then the market is not efficient and Buy-and-Hold (which is rooted in a belief in an efficient market) is indeed a lie.
Shiller doesn’t say it that way. Lots of people who believe that Shiller’s research is important don’t say it that way. I wish that they would. The clearer statement is always the better statement, in my view. If there is some reason to believe that Buy-and-Hold is not a lie, I want to have someone bring that evidence to my attention and it is far more likely that that will happen if I advance the clear statement. If Buy-and-Hold really is a lie, I want to get the word out to everyone who invests so that we can work together to build a model for understanding how stock investing works that is real and that helps people. I don’t see how anyone benefits from all of the beating around the bush that we see in this field.
I love the Buy-and-Holders. They made many amazing contributions to our understanding of how stock investing works. There would be no Valuation-Informed Indexing but for those many amazing contributions. But, if Shiller’s research is legitimate, Buy-and-Hold is indeed a lie. And we need to hear everyone who understands this saying it in clear and firm and unapologetic and uncompromising terms.
That’s my sincere take re this terribly important matter, in any event.
Please feel free to spread the word everywhere on the internet that Rob Bennett believes that Buy-and-Hold is a lie. To be fair, you should say that I believe that prior to 1981 it was a mistake. But 36 years after the mistake was uncovered by the publication of peer-reviewed research, I think it would be more than fair to say that the mistake has been transformed into a lie, a lie that I don’t want to be associated with in any way, shape or form. You would be doing me a favor by letting people know that this is my sincere position.
My best and warmest wishes to you.