The Bad Money Advice blog recently posted a blog entry entitled Why Market Timing Is Hard.
I posted two lengthy comments.
Juicy Excerpt: The rub is that we cannot say how long it will take before we see the big crash. We went to 25 in 1995 and stocks didn’t begin performing poorly until 2000. Those who lowered their stock allocations in expectation of a crash as soon as we went to 25 missed out on five years of good stock returns. In the long term, though, those who “miss out” on a few years of gains because they want to avoid a huge crash end up ahead. There is a cost to engaging in long-term timing, but there is also a cost of not doing so. The cost of not engaging in long-term timing is greater than the cost of engaging in long-term timing.