The high-traffic Jesse’s Cafe Americain blog has linked to my article titled Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Reporting on Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies. The link appears at the “Matieres A Reflexion” section of the site (on the left-hand side of the page). The link is titled “Researcher Warns on Buy-and-Hold Strategies.”
Juicy Excerpt: All industries would like to be able to persuade the people who buy their product or service that it is worth buying at any possible price. The Stock-Selling Industry is the only industry that has ever pulled off this act of marketing magic. Millions of investors today believe that it is not necessary to consider price when setting their stock allocations, that it is not possible to successfully time the market.
There is now 30 years of academic research showing that the claim that it is not possible to time the market is false. There really is a wealth of research showing that short-term timing (changing your stock allocation because of a guess at to how stocks will perform over the next year or two) does not work. There is zero research showing that long-term timing (changing your stock allocation in response to big valuation shifts with an understanding that you may not see a benefit for doing so for as long as 10 years) doesn’t work. To the contrary, there is now a mountain of research showing that long-term market timing ALWAYS works. There has never been one time in 140 years (that’s as far back as we have records) when long-term timing did not produce far higher returns at greatly reduced risk.
This article exposes the cover-up.