Set forth below is the text of an e-mail sent to me on April 20, 2009, by J.D. Roth, owner of the Get Rich Slowly blog, in response to my e-mail to him described in an earlier blog entry and the subsequent e-mail by the owner of the Lazy Man and Money blog and my response to it.
Hi, Rob.
Thanks for writing.
I’ve actually been following your discussion over at the MBN forums, but I haven’t participated because I have nothing meaningful to add. I understand that this is something about which you feel strongly, and I admire your devotion and persistence. I wish you well in your crusade. HOWEVER, there are many many things wrong with conventional financial advice, and the debate over the safe withdrawal rate is but one small example. I’m not willing to focus on this at the exclusion of other topics.
From my experience, most reasonable financial advisers arleady understand that the 4% withdrawal rate is not set in stone. They use it as a guideline. Why? Because, in general, it WORKS in order to provide guidance for clients. But every reputable source I’ve read makes it clear that the safe withdrawal rate does indeed vary depending on economic conditions. Some authors may use 4% when speaking broadly, but if they do a detailed examination, they always include caveats. I do this myself.
That said, I have some other thoughts and comments:
1. You wrote: “The owners of personal finance blogs should organize to prevent Goon posters from destroying our property and from intimidating our readership.” To be honest, this seems unnecessary to me. I’ve been writing about personal finance for three years, and though I have to deal with an occasional nut and occasional hostility, I’ve seen no evidence on GRS (or anywhere else, for that matter) of “Goon posters” intimidating readership. If you’re feeling threatened by Goon posters and nobody else is, ask yourself why this might be the case.
2. You wrote: “This shows that the core premise of the Passive Investing model — that allocation changes are not needed in response to big price changes — does not hold water.” I don’t agree with you. For one thing, passive investing requires periodic rebalancing, so there *is* a response to big price changes. For another, I don’t think that the safe-withdrawal rate question has anything to do with passive investing. You may as well argue that it shows that the core premise of active investing doesn’t hold water. Both arguments are equally incorrect.
3. Your approach to this is damaging your objective. You mean well, I know, but as others have pointed out, you come across as crazy. I’m not joking. If you want to be taken seriously, then write SHORT persuasive articles that address this subject. In the thread that Lazy Man locked, you are writing enormous epistles belaboring even minor points. You’re flooding people with words. Even if some, like me, might be inclined to agree with you, we have difficulty taking you seriously because you take offense at the slightest provocation, and you seem hell-bent on this crusade. You are tilting at windmills.
My number one recommendation for you is this: Write less. Write fewer posts/articles, and when you do write, make them shorter. This will increase your credibility immeasurably. If you want to get the word out on this subject, write a SHORT article that makes your point WITHOUT loaded terms like “goon squad” and “old school”, etc. Submit it to a pfblogger. (Hell, you could even submit it to me.) If the blogger rejects it, don’t take offense. Listen to why they rejected it.
Right now, Rob, you are your own worst enemy in this matter. *YOU* are what is causing people not to listen. People in the MBN thread tried to tell you this, but you ignored them. Until you are able to come to terms with this, you’re going to continue to struggle to be heard. And that’s a shame. I think you have something worth hearing.
Now here’s an unfortunate truth: I do not have time to devote to a long, rambling discussion on this subject with you by e-mail (or any other source). I have work to do. I’m perfectly willing to exchange short e-mails on this subject, but if you respond with long epistles, they will likely be ignored — not out of any malicious intent on my part, but because I simply don’t have time to deal with it. I barely have time to get the things done that need doing without adding this to my plate. Hell, I just spent 30 minutes writing this reply when I should have been researching bonds for my afternoon post.
Thanks!
–j.d.
Thanks to Evidence-Based Investing for pointing out an error in the order in which I posted the seres of e-mails between J.D., Lazy Man and I. I have now slated the e-mail that I had mistakenly put forward as this morning’s blog post for tomorrow morning. I hope I’ve gotten it right this time!
Rob
It makes interesting reading.
Your approach to this is damaging your objective…
you come across as crazy…
write SHORT persuasive articles…
you are writing enormous epistles belaboring even minor points.
You’re flooding people with words…
you take offense at the slightest provocation…
you seem hell-bent on this crusade. You are tilting at windmills….
Write less. Write fewer posts/articles, and when you do write, make them shorter….
write a SHORT article that makes your point WITHOUT loaded terms like “goon squad” and “old school”, etc….
you are your own worst enemy in this matter.
*YOU* are what is causing people not to listen.
People … tried to tell you this, but you ignored them….
you’re going to continue to struggle to be heard….
if you respond with long epistles, they will likely be ignored
It’s the same message that you get from almost everyone you interact with on blogs and forums. And yet your approach never changes. “Until you are able to come to terms with this, you’re going to continue to struggle to be heard.”
You make it sound a lot worse than it is (and heaven knows it sounds bad enough without any exaggeration!), Evidence. There have been thousands of community members who have expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted and even encouraged on all of our boards and blogs.
I will continue to post honestly on safe withdrawal rates and on all other important investment-related topics, Evidence. We’ll see where that takes us.
Rob
J.D. let us know over a year where that takes us.
“you’re going to continue to struggle to be heard”
Perhaps, Evidence.
But what’s the worst that you and the other Goons could pull off? Say that you get me put on the electric chair for reporting the retirement numbers accurately. I think it’s fair to say that that’s the worst that you could pull off. I would prefer the electric chair to posting dishonestly re the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements. So in a worst-case scenario, I am making the only call that I can feel even a tiny bit comfortable making to continue to post honestly.
Do I regret the harm that you have done to many boards and blogs? Certainly. But I do not control the Goons, Evidence. So that is not on me. And I have spoken out in opposition to the tactics being employed by the Goons on numerous occasions. So I think it is fair to say that I am covered re this aspect of things.
I have argued that the Goons should be banned from all of the various boards and blogs on numerous occasions and in numerous places. I don’t believe that there is anything that I could have done that I have not done. If anyone comes up with anything good, I will give it a spin. Unless that happens, I think it is fair to say that I have done my part and then some more on top of that and then some more on top of that yet again.
That’s my sincere take re this matter, in any event.
Rob
Did you inform JD and Lazy man you were going to publish your private email exchanges? Hope so.
Finally, I’m glad people are helping you see the light Rob! It’s OK to be a little crazy and long winded sometimes. If you want to progress, you might as well listen to feedback. If not, that’s OK too, just don’t expect much!
Cheers,
Sam
I would prefer the electric chair to posting dishonestly re the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements.
If you read J.D.’s words carefully you will see that nowhere does he suggest posting dishonestly about SWRs.
Thanks very much for stopping by, Sam.
It’s possible that I improperly deleted an earlier comment of yours. I have a vague recollection of seeing one in your name and not being sure whether you had written it or not (the Lindauer/Greaney Goons often post under different names as one of their ways of tricking the readers of the blogs they comment at). After reading this comment by you (which I think it is fair to say is pretty darn far out there!), I am persuaded that the earlier comment was really put forward by you. In that event, I should not have deleted it as I think your views on the question of whether honest posting on investing topics should be permitted at the various blogs and whether personal finance bloggers should be participating in a blacklist of those who have posted honestly on SWRs and other topics is an important one for people to hear. So I apologize for that. In the event that you ever see a post of yours deleted here, please just let me know that it was really put forward by you and I will reinstate it.
Did you inform JD and Lazy man you were going to publish your private email exchanges? Hope so.
My policy is to get permission when I post someone’s entire e-mail. In the cases in which I do not get permission to post an entire e-mail and I believe that there is important news value in the comments made in the e-mail, I summarize the points made and perhaps add a few brief quotes to supply color and context. My preference is to run people’s own words because that way that takes away the possibility that I might describe things improperly ( I do my best to keep my personal bias out of my reporting but we are of course all flawed humans).
Finally, I’m glad people are helping you see the light Rob!
Yuck!
I find that comment repulsive, Sam. Youb should be ashamed of yourself!
I am a big fan of the work of both J.D. and Lazy Man, as you probably know, Sam. I also consider myself their friends. I think it is fair to say that they do neither their readers nor their blogs nor their businesses nor themselves any favors when they participate in smear campaigns or fail to take action on Lindauer/Greaney Goons who post at their sites with the aim of intimidating those of their readers inclined to post honestly on investing topics. I am amazed that you would put forward words in their “defense,” Sam.
I think I am now beginning to understand better why you have several times expressed “confusion” over the nature of the “controversy” that has led to the Ban on Honest Posting on SWRs and other important investment-related topics at numerous blogs. It is sounding to me like you are putting a desire to get in with certain powerful bloggers over your responsibility to shoot straight with your readers about the damage that Get Rich Quick investing “strategies” have done to all of us in recent decades. Say it ain’t so, Sam!
It’s OK to be a little crazy and long winded sometimes. If you want to progress, you might as well listen to feedback. If not, that’s OK too, just don’t expect much!
Yuck again!
Oh, my!
I do appreciate you stopping by to share your thoughts, Sam. I love your blog and I do think you show great community spirit by taking so much time to comment on so many of the comments posted at it. I hope there comes a day when you disassociate yourself from all this ugliness we have seen put forward by the Buy-and-Hold “defenders.”
You coulda been somebody, Sam. You coulda been a contenda! Instead of a —
Goon Sympathizer?
I think that’s fair, Sam. If I am somehow reading you wrong, I hope you will fire back.
In any event, I plan to post your comments as a separate blog entry. I think people need to understand why is it that we are suffering through an economic crisis today and why it is that so few bloggers have seen fit to help out. My guess is that that will go up sometime next week, perhaps Wednesday.
Holy moly! Et tu. FInancial Samurai?
Rob
If you read J.D.’s words carefully you will see that nowhere does he suggest posting dishonestly about SWRs.
Um — good point, Evidence.
Truly outstanding post!!!!
Rob
Um — good point, Evidence.
Truly outstanding post!!!!
Rob
Right back at ya Rob !!!!!
They tell us Catholic boys in grade school that any suffering we do here on Earth can be used to burn up time we would have had to spend in Purgatory if it is offered up in the proper spirit.
Rob
I have a very sad face today. Rob continuously deflects and changes the topic of his seriously screwed up personality (which a lot of people care about) and directs it towards his SWR crusade (which no one really cares too much about).
Rob, you’re welcome to say whatever you want, and choose to be affected or not be affected by words.
There is a chance there is a reason why you have frequent debates. Usually it’s never a one-sided fault. Takes both sides to move forward!
Hi Rob,
Forgot to answer your question. I only posted one comment this morning, and not two, so you didn’t accidentally delete anything of mine.
BTW, saw your ABC News interview! Great tips and well done! I like all your tips. On the last one, can one just alter the ratio from 10% to whatever higher level they want?
Cheers,
Sam
and directs it towards his SWR crusade (which no one really cares too much about).
Someone must care about safe withdrawal rates or it wouldn’t be possible to have a “crusade” in regard to them, Sadface.
If no one cared, no one would have ever commented on any of my SWR posts. People would have just gone about their business and commented on things they cared about.
Is the promotion of Buy-and-Hold a crusade? Or is it only pointing out the flaws of Buy-and-Hold that is a crusade?
Rob
There is a chance there is a reason why you have frequent debates. Usually it’s never a one-sided fault. Takes both sides to move forward!
I don’t believe there is any fault on my side, Sam. I have been reaching out the hand of kindness going back to the first day.
I agree though with the thrust of your comment — it takes two. There is something that I am doing that upsets people. This is undeniable at this point.
I think that what I am doing is questioning something that is very, very important to a lot of people. There was one fellow who said “Rob is so sweet and polite — Yet he irritates me to no end!” I think there are a lot of people who feel that way. People like me as a person. But a good number very strongly dislike my message. My contribution to the friction is that I just won’t shut the heck up.
I don’t think it is even a tiny bit healthy for those who understand the realities of stock investing to always be the ones to shut up. I’ve had numerous people tell me that they agree with my investing views but that they have learned that it is best for people with their views just to shut up for the sake of peace. I think these people are letting their communities down. We have to be able to hear both sides presented or we do not even have the basic information available to us to move forward. Those who today are not speaking up about the Big Fail of Buy-and-Hold need to make an effort to speak up, When they do, people will stop thinking of the idea that Buy-and-Hold caused the economic crisis as odd or strange or out there. Then at least we will be able to talk it all over in warm and polite and kind exchanges.
I hate friction, Sam. But there are times when the world is in such a state that there just has to be some friction. My vote is to do this in the least friction-filled way possible. I am happy to say that I like the Buy-and-Holders and that I respect them and that I have learned from them and all that sort of thing. That stuff is positive. That stuff helps. I draw the line at saying things that I don’t believe. If I say that I believe that Buy-and-Hold can work for the long-term investor or that Buy-and-Hold was not the primary cause of the economic crisis, then I am saying things that I just flat-out do not believe. That cannot possibly be the right thing to do.
We all need to show respect and affection for those coming at these questions from the other side. The Valuation-Informed Indexers need to show respect and affection for the Buy-and-Holders. The Buy-and-Holders also need to show respect and affection for the Valuation-Informed Indexers.
The Buy-and-Holders are today not holding up their end. That’s what it comes down to. Sure, I could bring the friction to an end by agreeing to post dishonestly. But that’s not even a remotely reasonable thing to demand of someone. I should be able to post honestly and all other community members who don’t believe in Buy-and-Hold should be able to post honestly. If Buy-and-Hold has anything good in it, the Buy-and-Holders will ultimately be shamed into acknowledging that they should permit people to post honestly. An investing strategy that cannot be defended in honest discussions is an investing strategy that should not be defended at all.
Rob
I only posted one comment this morning, and not two, so you didn’t accidentally delete anything of mine.
The one that I think I deleted was not from yesterday, it was from back perhaps a month or so. I just want you to know that I would not delete a comment that had your name on it if I believed that you were indeed the community member who had put it forward. You are an important member of the personal finance community and your thoughts on these topics matter. I want my readers to see them and I am grateful when you are willing to take time out of your day to offer contributions here.
Rob
BTW, saw your ABC News interview! Great tips and well done! I like all your tips. On the last one, can one just alter the ratio from 10% to whatever higher level they want?
Thank you for those kind words, Sam.
Sam is referring to my claim that it is a bad idea to Pay Yourself First, that is, to automatically take 10 percent out of your earnings and save it. My view is that you should Pay Yourself Last, that is, decide on your saving percentage only after comparing the value proposition that comes from spending the money and the value proposition that comes from saving the money and determining what mix of spending and saving yields the greatest overall number of Fun Units.
You can’t just alter the percentage, Sam. My belief is that any arbitrarily chosen percentage is bad. 10 percent is bad, 20 percent is bad, 0 percent is bad, 50 percent is bad. My belief is that the key to effective money management is going through the process that leads to the determination of the proper saving percentage. This number must be customized. It must be different for each person.
Your saving percentage is like your personality — all its power comes from the fact that it is unique. No one can adopt a personality from someone else and have it be effective. It has to come from inside. If it comes from inside, it will work. It’s the same with your saving percentage, in my view.
I have written a book entitled “Passion Saving: The Path to Plentiful Free Time and Soul-Satisfying Work,” Sam. If you have an interest in taking a look at it, please just send me your address and I will shoot a review copy to you. Or if you have an interest in me writing a Guest Blog Entry on a saving topic at your blog, please let me know that and I will get one written up for you. There was a day (oh, happy memory!) when I NEVER spoke a word about investing for years at a time! I was strictly a savings guy. Can you imagine?
Rob
I think Don Quixote had a crusade about as useful as your’s Rob.
People mostly post because of your fantastic trolling passive/aggressive capability as well as your habit of misrepresentation.
People mostly post because of your fantastic trolling passive/aggressive capability as well as your habit of misrepresentation.
All that I see in your words is an evidencing of pain, Sadface. I wish that you could make an effort to engage in reasoned communication. You would discover some wonderful, wonderful things if you did.
There’s a lot of truly wonderful stuff on the other side of that brick wall you have placed in front of yourself. I am trying to take down the wall and there is something within you that sees me as an enemy for that reason. But the truth is that I am your best friend. That wall is not your friend, Sadface. It’s the wall that is your enemy.
Rob