Recent blog entries have reported on e-mail correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail Larry sent to me on November 12, 2009.
Thank you for your note.
I’ll really think through your comment about market timing. My initial reaction to the timing word was negative when I first went to your site. Timing is cast in such a negative light by the press and reinforced by most planners. The asset allocation words are hailed by most people as the best process for overall investment return. I can’t visualize large institutional investors telling their clients that they are engaged in market timing. I can visualize them saying that they are using new asset allocation tools to reduce risk. The entire industry is looking for ways to reduce risk right now.
The target audience for this tool really is the middle class (non accredited investors). My comments regarding Hedge Funds were more for discussion purposes. I know Hedge Fund managers really look at valuations to determine the perceived best asset class at the moment.
Please take a look at my Index Fund Movement chart and description of the P/E 10 when I send it to you. I will be curious if you change your view about the timing issue after you review the information. I’m working on this very part time so it is still going to be at least a few weeks before I have a decent draft.