Yesterday’s blog entry reported on an e-mail that I sent to academic researcher Wade Pfau on January 20, 2011. Wade responded the next day.
He said: “If you do have any suggestions about how I explained why long-term market timing works, but not short-term market timing, I would love to hear it.” He added, though, that he did not want me to have to retype points I had already made in materials at my web site. He explained that: “I think this is something you’ve addressed in your various articles, and I will read everything before finalizing my paper.”
Re Larimore’s mischaracterization of Bogle’s position, Wade said: “I was thinking about taking Taylor to task for this, but in the end I’ve decided not to. That guy is over 80 years old and he seems to be a bit of a follower. I don’t really feel a need to argue with him at this point. Especially since other people have already pointed it out to him and he doesn’t seem to care.”
Wade told me that he had “big news.” He had posted preliminary results of his research:
He noted that “Richard disappeared after I took him to task about being full of it with regards to ‘standard statistics.’ ” He explained that: “I think on those message boards that all those guys repeat that mantra so much that they do not think it is standard statistics, when in fact the issue of rolling periods is a rather advanced topic well beyond the reaches of Statistics 101, and their assumptions are not necessarily right.”