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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
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  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

Academic Researcher Wade Pfau: “If I Did Lack Personal Integrity, I Could Have Made This All Stop by Saying the Meaningless Sentence You Want So Desperately to Hear — ‘I Think the Errors in the Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Must Be Corrected By Using Rob’s Analytically Valid Method’ “

June 17, 2012 by Rob

I have in recent weeks been reporting on my e-mail correspondence with Academic Researcher Wade Pfau. Wade posted a comment to the blog entry that I posted early this morning. The text is set forth below:

Hi Rob,

I forgot that I was still saying things like this even 2 weeks after the initial incident.

This was more than a year ago now, but I am thinking that I was just trying to explain politely to you that I’d rather have you quit writing about me, or at least stop using my name. I suppose that I figured the only way you might understand why is if I explained it in terms of your favorite conspiracy theories.

I will make one more attempt at a reality check for you. You go on and on about how I allegedly lack personal integrity because I allowed the Goons to threaten me into silence.

The reality is that though I may have for a brief moment got a bit too caught up in YOUR drama, I do not have any fears about the Goons.

The reality is that you are causing me 1000x more career damage than the Goons ever could have by filling Google with so much nonsense about me, and sharing embarrassing private details such as my overly ambitious journal submission strategies, etc. Those in particular are highly private. People don’t publicly share where they submit articles to unless those articles are accepted. You’ve violated my trust in so many countless ways and yet you still proclaim to be my friend.

And the further reality is that if I *did* lack personal integrity, I could have made this all stop just by saying the meaningless sentence you want so desperately to hear: “I think the errors in the traditional safe withdrawal rate studies must be corrected by using Rob’s analytically valid method.”

But I don’t believe that. I do not believe you have offered a valid correction to the safe withdrawal rate question. And I believe that retirement income strategies go much further than the question of a safe withdrawal rate. And so that is why I’ve had to endure your ongoing harassment for months on end now.

Usually I can figure out the Rob-logic behind what you are thinking, but I really don’t know how you think you come out of this whole episode looking like the good guy. I guess it is because you think you are saving my soul and putting me back on the path of righteousness, or something, huh? If only you had the power to do a little bit of self reflection…

Now that the whole email history is on display, we have the reminder of how angry you got at the very beginning when I referred to you as dogmatic. Yet, look at the way you’ve treated me for disagreeing with you on something which you don’t even understand. You quote numbers from JWR’s statistical work, but I’m not sure if you can even distinguish a mean from a median. So how can you be sure his work is right? I don’t know either, as I never did get around to digging into it, and I doubt I ever will now. But I’m not sure how a properly calculated lower confidence bound for a 2000 retiree could have been higher than zero.

Rob, suppose the stock market does drop 65% as you are expecting. It might happen, who knows.

Step 1: Stock Market Drops 65%

Step 2: ??

Step 3: Rob wins $500 million settlement from the Goons, the Goons are sent to prison, the investing public learns about and adopts VII.

What is Step 2? There isn’t one. You will still be in the same position as you’ve been in for the last 10 years. Why didn’t something happen for you after the 2008 financial crisis? You are like the guy who keeps predicting new ends for the world as each previous prediction date passes by.

That is why I’m telling you, from one human being to another, that it is time to move on. You are a smart guy, and you could use your talents for something productive. While warning people about the 4% rule is helpful, the way that you go about doing it is rather “catastrophically unproductive” as one wise fellow said to you years ago. I provide a loud voice that is critical of the 4% rule, and so spending your days assassinating my character is counterproductive to your underlying cause. So perhaps you can start fresh with a new issue of social import that carries less baggage for you. What happened in the past is a sunk cost, but you still have a chance to turn things around and start afresh today. And you can do all of this while still being honest and true to yourself.

My reaction to Wade’s words is set forth in the comments section of the earlier blog entry.

Filed Under: Silencing of Wade Pfau Tagged With: investment research, Wade Pfau

Comments

  1. Diversified Investor says

    June 17, 2012 at 7:20 pm

    You are a sad, strange man. It is clear that Wade deeply regrets ever getting involved with you. Why can’t you leave the guy alone?

  2. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 7:14 am

    It is clear that Wade deeply regrets ever getting involved with you.

    Here are some words Wade wrote in the days before the Greaney Goons threatened to get him fired from his job for committing the terrible “crime” of saying honestly what he believed about the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies and about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold in general:

    1) “I cite you and John Walter Russell as the earliest advocates of [New School safe withdrawal rate research]”

    2) “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!”

    3) “Valuation-Informed Indexing beats Buy-and-Hold in 102 of the 110 rolling 30-year time-periods in the historical record”

    4) “This paper…suggests that the traditional approach to retirement planning is counterproductive and possibly damaging”

    5) “The market timer enjoys a far less risky strategy”

    6) “Any data mining I am doing favors Buy-and-Hold….The findings for market timing are so robust that it hardly matters how we do it.”

    7) “I always find your writing to be interesting and intriguing”

    8) “I was trying to pay tribute to your accomplishments in what I knew would be a hostile environment”

    9) “Bogle in many cases said things not all that different from what you said”

    10) “My comment before [suggesting that Rob Bennett had been dogmatic in his posting] was completely misguided and I apologize to him”

    11) “I like your term ‘historical surviving withdrawal rate’ as a more accurate description of what traditional studies like Trinity show”

    12) “Given How Well Valuations Help to Explain Withdrawals Rates, I Think There Is a Lot of Potential for This Topic”

    13) “I was a little nervous about contacting you in case you thought I was trying to steal your thunder”

    14) “I hope we can stay in touch. I would like to do a Valuation-Informed Indexing study.”

    15) “As You Say in Your Podcast, Valuation-Informed Indexing Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time, and I Am Getting Results That Support This”

    16) “I Definitely Need to Cite [You] as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing…. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation”

    17) “Two Papers by FIsher and Statman Are Still All I Can Find That Provide Evidence Against Long-Term Market Timing”

    18) “You Deserve Much of the Credit [For My Research Findings] As the Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You”

    19) “No Matter What I Try, Valuations-Based Strategies Tend to Produce the Same or Greater Returns at Lower Risk Than Fixed Allocations”

    20) “Though I Was Only Trying to Do an Old-School Safe Withdrawal Rate Study, All That I Ended Up Doing Was Showing in a Different Way What You Had Been Saying All Along — The SWR Changes With Valuations”

    21) “Now That I Am Accounting for Risk, I Am Even More Amazed by How Well Valuation-Informed Indexing Works… Why Haven’t Academics Already Published Research About This?”

    22) “I Would Not Be Surprised If the Market Timer Had to Go All the Way to 200/0 to Get a Strategy With the Same Risk as 100 Percent Stocks”

    23) “Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Provides More Returns for Often Less Risk”

    24) “Maybe Your ‘New School’ Term Will Get Some More Traction After All…. I Realize Now That I Should Cite Something of Yours About Safe Withdrawal Rates When Preparing the Final Draft.”

    25) “I Think My Paper Is Not Challenging Modern Portfolio Theory…But Often You End Up Persuading Me to Your Points”

    There is great power in the idea of using academic research to guide our investment decisions, Diversified. I applaud the Buy-and-Holders for coming up with that idea and for promoting it so heavily for may years now. There is one risk attached to that idea. The risk is that you might make a mistake at some point. Given the power of telling people to follow the research when making investment decisions, it is obviously critical that all mistakes be promptly corrected. This one was not promptly corrected. That’s why we are in an economic crisis today.

    There is not one Buy-and-Holder alive who does not deep in his or her heart want to see the mistake corrected or who does not want to see the economic crisis brought to an end or who does not want to soon be enjoying the greatest period of economic growth ever seen in our history. For these Buy-and-Holders to see their dreams realized, we need to be able to talk openly about these matters. We know that, when people are able to discuss these matters in a civil and reasoned way, they enjoy them immensely and learn a great deal from participating in them. So we need to make that possible.

    I ask you to reserve judgment on how Wade feels about me or on how the millions of middle-class investors affected by Wade’s decisions feels about me until we see the fruits of the discussions we will be having once we achieve our (OUR, not MY) goal of opening the internet to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and many other critically important investment-related topics. I am 100 percent confident that you will not hear one voice of dissent that our decision to open the internet to honest posting brought on the most important advance in our understanding of how stock investing works in the real world ever achieved in history.

    I wish you well in all your future endeavors, Diversified. Please take good care.

    Rob

  3. Diversified Investor says

    June 18, 2012 at 8:41 am

    A whole lot of words and not a bit of truth to any of them. Wade’s job was never threatened by “the goons”. Wade has stated that you are doing a lot of damage to his career.

  4. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 8:44 am

    Good stuff, Diversified.

    Rob

  5. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 18, 2012 at 9:04 am

    Now that the whole email history is on display, we have the reminder of how angry you got at the very beginning when I referred to you as dogmatic. Yet, look at the way you’ve treated me for disagreeing with you on something which you don’t even understand.

    Wade has learned what many of us already knew. If you cross Rob “hocus” Bennett he will take it extremely personally and respond with a torrent of abusive comments which will most likely continue for years.

    For evidence see the continued bile directed towards John Greaney and Mel Lindauer.

  6. what says

    June 18, 2012 at 9:10 am

    “Here are some words Wade wrote in the days before the Greaney Goons threatened to get him fired from his job for committing the terrible “crime” of saying honestly what he believed about the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies and about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold in general:”

    I think these words were uttered before he realized you were completely insane. You totally took that Wade guy for a ride. What a sweet well meaning softie/sucker/rube.

  7. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 9:34 am

    If you cross Rob “hocus” Bennett he will take it extremely personally and respond with a torrent of abusive comments which will most likely continue for years.

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Evidence.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  8. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 9:36 am

    I think these words were uttered before he realized you were completely insane.

    That would appear to be the case, What.

    You totally took that Wade guy for a ride. What a sweet well meaning softie/sucker/rube.

    My take is that I learned a lot from him and he learned a lot from me. My take is that our relationship was a win/win/win/win/win.

    Please take care

    Rob

  9. what says

    June 18, 2012 at 2:54 pm

    Hahah, the funny thing is he would probably revert all those wins to losses…and based on your current situation its not clear if you have any wins at all!

    Rob ‘Lose/Lose/Lose/Lose/Lose/Lose’ Bennett.

  10. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    I don’t agree, What.

    The Goons have obviously caused me to suffer huge financial losses. I expect to recover those losses through lawsuits I will bring against the Goons themselves and against the various web sites that have permitted them to post after learning about the tactics they have employed to terrorize our board and blog communities.

    I don’t think that standing with one’s fellow community members can ever be characterized as a “lose.” We have done amazing work together. We have learned more about the realities of how stock investing works in these past 10 years than any group of people has ever learned in any earlier 10-year period. We have been blessed.

    What we have learned will change the world for the good forever. The ugliness that the Goons brought to the table will be quickly forgotten once we put it behind us.

    It is the forces of hate that always lose in the end, my old friend. Those who live for hate destroy themselves.

    And love conquers all in the end. There are dark nights of the soul when we think that that may never be the case. We all have had to suffer those agonies from time to time. Yet the story always ends in the same way. We have bad in us and the bad in us is real. But we also have good in us and the good is able to conquer the bad if we direct our human energies to making that happen.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  11. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 18, 2012 at 4:21 pm

    I expect to recover those losses through lawsuits I will bring against the Goons themselves and against the various web sites that have permitted them to post after learning about the tactics they have employed to terrorize our board and blog communities.

    You have not been able to convince a lawyer to take this case. There will be no lawsuit, there will be no recovery of your imaginary losses.

  12. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 4:29 pm

    You have not been able to convince a lawyer to take this case.

    I have found several who have expressed the view that there is a strong case. I have not found one who was willing to take the case on a contingency basis. I would like to bring the case either on a contingency basis or as a pro bono case.

    There will be no lawsuit, there will be no recovery of your imaginary losses.

    I hope you are wrong, Evidence. I think a successful lawsuit would send all the right signals. We need to show that money can be made reporting honestly on what the last 30 years of academic research says about stock investing. Once we show that money can be made offering honest and accurate and realistic investing advice, we enter a new world, a world in which middle-class investors will be able to retire many years sooner and a world in which people of intelligence and integrity will feel much better about seeking employment in the investing advice field.

    My best wishes to you and yours.

    Rob

  13. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 18, 2012 at 4:36 pm

    I have found several who have expressed the view that there is a strong case.

    If they really meant that they would take the case on a contingency basis.

  14. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 4:46 pm

    I’m not so sure, Evidence.

    Say that you believe that there’s an 80 percent chance that you will win a case. And say that the case will require one year of man hours. Would you be willing to bet one year of man hours that your belief will pan out?

    Some might do that. Some might not.

    I met with one lawyer who said that was his issue. He suggested that I try larger firms. He said that a small firm could not afford to take the risk.

    If you hear of a good lawyer willing to take the case on contingency, please let me know. I think a lot of people will elect to have nothing more to do with the Goons once the litigation is filed.

    Rob

  15. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 18, 2012 at 4:50 pm

    He suggested that I try larger firms.

    Did you?

  16. Rob says

    June 18, 2012 at 5:15 pm

    I believe that I called one larger firm, Evidence. It’s hard to get in to talk to decision-makers in large firms. The fellow I spoke to at the large firm indicated that that firm wasn’t interested in a contingency arrangement either. So I decided to let that aspect of things go for a bit.

    It’s possible that, if I spent all my time trying to find lawyers to take the case, I would find lawyers willing to take the case on a contingency basis. That may be.

    But I’ll tell you how I look at this. I didn’t get into this to bring lawsuits. I am a reporter. So the most important thing to me is to tell the story properly. The lawsuits are an add-on. They are not the meat.

    The real problem is the Social Taboo we have adopted against talking honestly about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold. Overcome that, and everything is groovy. No economic crisis. We all get to retire years earlier. Lots of book sales. Good stuff piled on top of good stuff piled on top of good stuff.

    So that is the key for me. I want to overturn that Social Taboo.

    Will successful lawsuits help? Sure. One of the ways a society expresses its priorities is through the outcomes it dictates for various types of lawsuits. So the lawsuits are a piece of the puzzle here. But they are not the key piece. I have a lot of important work on my plate and spending too much time on lawsuits today might pull me away from other work that needs to be completed. So I am reluctant to direct too much energies to the lawsuits at this time.

    If I overturn that social taboo, there are going to be top-notch lawyers sending me their cards on a daily basis. The lawsuits will take care of themselves. If I don’t overturn that social taboo, I am probably not going to get to first base on anything. So that is my focus.

    The primary reason why I mention the lawsuits is that I want people who are running a risk of being named in them to know of the possibility. I don’t want someday down the road to be naming someone in a lawsuit and to hear him say “Oh, I never expected this to happen!” People need to know that the lawsuit possibility is very much a live possibility. So long as I have made an effort to let people know that, I will feel comfortable naming people who ignored the notices. I need to do that to be able to sleep with a clear conscience.

    The lawsuits will happen. But the thing that must happen for all sorts of good things to happen is the overcoming of the Social Taboo on talking frankly and openly and boldly about this stuff. That one is a biggie. That’s the one I spend most of my time thinking about.

    I hope that helps you understand a little bit better where I am coming from re the lawsuits and related matters.

    Rob

  17. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 18, 2012 at 7:39 pm

    I have a lot of important work on my plate and spending too much time on lawsuits today might pull me away from other work that needs to be completed.

    Like a three month long regurgitation of a year old email exchange?

  18. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 18, 2012 at 7:43 pm

    And over 14,000 posts at the Goon board.

    That is a pretty funny sort of “important work” “that needs to be completed”.

    But in all these years you have only managed to contact one larger law firm, despite having a lawyer (who might know something about this) suggest that to you.

  19. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 6:25 am

    Like a three month long regurgitation of a year old email exchange?

    Of course, Evidence.

    Each of the blog entries that I have put forward relating to my correspondence with Wade is more important than any of my earlier blog entries. Their combined significance is beyond calculation.

    The Buy-and-Holders did a wonderful thing when they argued that we all should root our investment decisions in the academic research. That was one of the most important breakthroughs ever. We are close today to getting to the point where we can begin enjoying the fruits of that huge breakthrough.

    It obviously did not help for us to root our strategies in the academic research when the academic research was in error. So there obviously were no fruits to be had until Shiller discovered in 1981 the error that had been made in earlier years.

    And since 1981 there have been intense pressures applied to keep people from talking about the error and from trying to get it corrected. So most of the academic research done over the past 30 years is analytically invalid. There are obviously no fruits that follow from following analytically invalid research.

    Wade showed us the way out. He published research showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing has been far superior to Buy-and-Hold going back as far as we have data. So we now for the first time in history have a truly research-backed investment strategy. We are a blessed people.

    We are today on the 99-yard line. The only thing holding us back is the widespread belief in the Buy-and-Hold marketing slogan that “timing doesn’t work.” People understand why long-term timing always must work. Everyone knows that not taking prices into consideration when making a buy decision is insane. The only problem we have is that many of us put our confidence in the experts in this field and most of the experts either endorse Buy-and-Hold or don’t speak out in clear and firm and certain terms about its dangers.

    My e-mail correspondence with Wade shows us why that is. It’s not that the experts are dumb or that they aren’t aware of the 30 years of research showing that there is zero chance that Buy-and-Hold can ever work for a single long-term investor. It’s that they are scared! They want to make a living in this field and the pressures applied to those who report honestly on what the data says are ferocious.

    This is what people need to know for us all to make the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing. Wade’s story is the story that people need to hear to become convinced to join us in our effort to bury Buy-and-Hold 30 feet in the ground, where it can do no further harm to humans and other living things.

    I hope you are as excited about seeing the wonderful places to which we soon will all be going as I am.

    Please take good care, my old friend.

    Rob

  20. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 6:36 am

    And over 14,000 posts at the Goon board. That is a pretty funny sort of “important work” “that needs to be completed”.

    I’m going to tell you a little secret, Evidence. Please don’t let this one get around.

    The Goons are human too!

    No, really.

    It’s hard to see it at times. There have been moments when I have had serious doubts. But I am pretty sure.

    Now —

    If the Goons are human, the Goons on some level of consciousness would like to know how to invest effectively. That follows, right?

    They have not been cooperating with our efforts to move things forward. Perhaps you’ve noticed.

    We have a puzzle before us. The Goons would benefit from our efforts as much as all the rest of us. But they are fighting like the dickens not to have those efforts succeed. What’s that all about?

    To tell this story properly, I need to know the answer to that one, Evidence. That’s why I post on an almost daily basis at the Goon Central board.

    The place smells something awful. You don’t have to mention it. I have personal experience. Lots of it.

    Someone has to go down into The Place that Smells and make an effort to figure out what the heck drives the Goons.

    No?

    I think someone has to do this dirty job. I didn’t seek out the job. I was volunteered. You know how that sort of thing goes.

    It all works out well for all of us in the end, my old friend. That’s what matters.

    Take care.

    Rob

  21. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 6:53 am

    But in all these years you have only managed to contact one larger law firm, despite having a lawyer (who might know something about this) suggest that to you.

    I addressed the lawyer question up above.

    I’ve acknowledged that, if I spent more time on that aspect of the question, the lawsuit side of things might proceed more quickly. I don’t know for sure that that’s so. But it could be so.

    The reason why I don’t do that is that I give a higher priority to other aspects of the question. I’ll give you one example.

    One of the articles I want to get up at the “The Buy-and-Hold Crisis” section of the site would be a question-and-answer thing relating to everything that has happened over the first ten years. That might be helpful for newcomers. It would obviously be a long article. So it will take some time to prepare it.

    Say that next Summer we see the next price crash. People lose another 65 percent of their accumulated wealth of a lifetime, they cut back on spending even more, and we go into the Second Great Depression.

    It’s going to be pretty darn important at that time to have that Q&A article ready, isn’t it? The hearts of a lot of Buy-and-Holders may melt when we go into the Second Great Depression. So there may be a lot of people who are suddenly open to hearing what the academic research really says about stock investing.

    It may be of critical importance that we quickly get those people the materials they need to make sense of all this. Once we are in a Second Great Depression, there is a good chance that our political system will fall. I am confident that you understand why seeing that happen would not be a good thing for any of us. So it’s going to be kinda important that we get accurate and honest information on how stock investing really works out to people at that time. Quickly!

    Things will go a lot more quickly if the materials needed were prepared in advance. So I spend a good bit of my time nowadays getting those materials prepared in advance of when they will be needed. That approach makes sense to me.

    Lawsuits?

    There are going to be lawsuits. There obviously are going to be lawsuits. Theoretically, the Goons might put $500 million in a paper bag and leave it on my doorstep with a note saying “Sorry” and I suppose that would more or less cover it. But I don’t see the odds of us seeing that one play out as being all that super great. Do you?

    Lawsuits are obviously going to be necessary to get done what we need to get done. But which is more important, lawsuits or insuring that our political system does not fall? It’s the latter that is more important. So that’s where I spend most of my time.

    The lawsuits are easy peasy once the important stuff is addressed. Valuation-Informed Indexing shows millions of middle-class people how to retire five to ten years sooner than they imagined was possible during the Buy-and-Hold years. How many people do you think there are going to be saying that I am not entitled to a payment of $500 million from those who helped the Goons for helping them out with that little thing? I think it is fair to say that that’s a number closely approaching zero.

    So there will be lots of people lending a hand to my effort to find lawyers to bring the various lawsuits when the appropriate time for that sort of thing arrives.

    Today I have more pressing matters on my plate.

    Time’s a wasting!

    Rob

  22. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 7:48 am

    Someone has to go down into The Place that Smells and make an effort to figure out what the heck drives the Goons.

    14,000+ posts and you still haven’t worked out what drives the Goons. I guess we should just chalk that up to one more thing that you aren’t much good at.

  23. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 7:58 am

    Perhaps.

    The way I see it is that I have given it my very best effort, Evidence.

    I can do no more and I can do no less.

    Please take good care.

    Rob

  24. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 8:47 am

    The way I see it is that I have given it my very best effort

    And that is the problem Rob. Your “best effort” has proven to be catastrophically unproductive in a whole range of areas. And yet you persist.

    Many people try to learn from their mistakes and try something different. You just keep beating the same dead horse.

  25. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 9:06 am

    If you think that learning how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 80 percent is “catastrophically unproductive,” you and I are coming at this from very different perspectives, Evidence.

    Everyone benefits when we reduce the risk of stock investing by 80 percent. Democrats and Republicans. Young and old. Women and men. Buy-and-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers. No exceptions.

    We are as a society trying to make the transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing. The Buy-and-Holders feel threatened by the need to make the transition. They are wrong to feel that way.

    My sense is that the primary concern is the many thousands of lawsuits that will be brought against those who have advocated Buy-and-Hold strategies. How many lawsuits would have been brought had we made the transition in May 2002? Not one. So I have done more to help The Stock-Selling Industry come out of this smelling like roses than any other human being alive on Planet Earth today.

    How many lawsuits will be brought if we go into the Second Great Depression because we failed to make the transition in time? The number will be a big multiple of the number that would be brought if we made the transition today. So again I am the best friend to the industry alive on Planet Earth.

    You need to analyze this in two steps. One, is there any way to avoid having to make this transition? Obviously, there is not. And, two, given that the transition must be made, what is the best possible timing for all concerned? The obvious answer is that it is best for all concerned to make the transition as quickly as possible.

    You Goons are hoping that we can avoid making the transition. That cannot happen. I have looked at the numbers. I know. You should look at the numbers. Then you would know too.

    There are things that can be done to help with the lawsuit matter. One thing is that legislation could be passed providing compensation to those who were harmed but limiting that compensation to the extent necessary to permit the rebuilding of The Stock-Selling Industry. That legislation will be 20 times harder to write after we go into the Second Great Depression, Evidence. There is no benefit to going into the Second Great Depression. It is a lose/lose/lose.

    Those are my sincere thoughts on these important matters, in any event.

    I of course wish you the best of luck in all your future endeavors.

    Rob

  26. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 9:14 am

    If you think that learning how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 80 percent is “catastrophically unproductive,” you and I are coming at this from very different perspectives, Evidence.

    You haven’t learned how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 80 percent.

    All you have done is imagined a fantasy world where stock volatility is massively reduced but the return remains the same.

    Bill Bernstein has explained why this is not possible.

    You choose not to listen.

  27. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 9:27 am

    Good point, Evidence.

    That’s helpful.

    Rob

  28. what says

    June 19, 2012 at 10:14 am

    Very interesting! If there were hundreds of millions of dollars on the table and an 80% chance of winning then just about any law firm out there would take the case.

    Rob – they probably just realized you were a nutcase so just said nice things but in the end got you to go away.

  29. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 10:21 am

    If there were hundreds of millions of dollars on the table and an 80% chance of winning then just about any law firm out there would take the case.

    If they were aware of all the facts, I agree that there would be many who would take it.

    The small-firm guy invited me to his office and we talked it over for several hours. So he knew all the facts. He wanted to take it. But for him the risk was just too great. Sure, he might make millions. But, if a small firm guy puts in a year of work and ends up with nothing to show for it, he might be out of business. So the risk was too great for this fellow.

    It’s a good bet for a large firm. I didn’t get through to a decision-maker at the one I called. The guy who answered the phone didn’t see the opportunity. I agree that there’s a good chance that a large firm would take it if I got through to a decision maker.

    I think it will be fair to say that it won’t be hard getting fixed up with decision makers after we go into the Second Great Depression and there are millions of people looking to bring lawsuits against those who work in the industry that did this to us. That part of this thing will take care of itself.

    The thing I am worried about is whether we will be able to pull out once we go into the Second Great Depression. I want to be sure to be able to say that I did everything in my power to stop us from falling into the Second Great Depression in the first place.

    Please take good care, What.

    Rob

  30. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 12:18 pm

    I didn’t get through to a decision-maker at the one I called.

    So you gave up. I don’t think you have what it takes to move this situation forward.

  31. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 12:58 pm

    There’s only one of me, Evidence. And there are only so many hours in the day.

    My intent is to focus on the high priority items. If we win the big ones, I am highly confident that the relatively little ones will easily fall into place all by themselves.

    Fair enough?

    Rob

  32. what says

    June 19, 2012 at 1:23 pm

    You should probably spend less of your day wasting time fooling around on the Internet. That might free up some time to do something productive.

    What high priority items are you focused on? It is hard to see any.

  33. what says

    June 19, 2012 at 1:24 pm

    I guess if the lawsuit thing is so little you will spend less time writing about it? You probably wasted more time blibber blabbing about it on your blog than it takes to call a dozen law firms.

    Your priorities are mysterious indeed. Mysterious…and indicative of a mental condition.

  34. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 1:42 pm

    What high priority items are you focused on? It is hard to see any.

    Please take a look at the blog entry to which you have posted a comment, What.

    Rob

  35. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    I guess if the lawsuit thing is so little you will spend less time writing about it?

    I need in good conscience to mention it from time to time so that those who post in “defense” of Lindauer and Greaney or who ban honest posting at their sites or who permit Lindauerheads or Greaney Goons to post at their sites are on notice as to what is coming down the road.

    Outside of that, I rarely mention it. The substantive matters are of far greater importance to those of us seeking to bring the Buy-and-Hold Crisis to an end.

    Please take care.

    Rob

  36. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 1:45 pm

    My intent is to focus on the high priority items.

    Like 14,000+ posts at the Goon board.

    And 200 Robcasts that receive virtually no feedback.

    And about 100 each of “Investing–The New Rules”, “Valuation-Informed Indexing” and “Beyond Buy-and-Hold” which usually receive no comments and are really just random assortments of the stuff you have been producing for years.

    And your vendetta against Wade.

    But no contact with the Trinity authors.
    And no discussion board at this site.
    And no second book.
    And no lawsuit.
    And no real attempt to get a lawsuit.

    What you claim as “high priority” is nonsense.

  37. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    And your vendetta against Wade.

    I have a vendetta against Wade, Evidence.

    I am the one who says his research belongs on the front page of the New York Times.

    I am the one who told him about Valuation-Informed Indexing.

    It was by reading my posts at the Vanguard Diehards board that he learned about the errors in the Old School SWR studies.

    I am the one who says he should get a Nobel prize for his work.

    I am the one who has had the courage to speak up against the threat of the Greaney Goons to send defamatory e-mails to his employer because he “crossed” Greaney by posting honestly on SWRs.

    And I am the one with a vendetta against Wade Pfau.

    That makes a lot of sense, my old friend.

    It’s good to see all the pieces of the puzzle finally beginning to snap into place.

    Take care.

    Rob

  38. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 2:08 pm

    That is all in the past.

    Now you say that Wade has gone to the dark side and describe him as shameful and insane and you flood twitter with abusive tweets about him.

  39. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 2:18 pm

    That is all in the past.

    It is not, Evidence.

    Wade has published the most important research ever published in this field. Wade has shown that Valuation-Informed Indexing always provides much higher returns than Buy-and-Hold at greatly reduced risk. That research will be helping millions of middle-class investors for many, many years to come.

    Nothing Wade has done in more recent days changes that. The research is still breakthrough research.

    Rob

  40. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 2:22 pm

    Now you say that Wade has gone to the dark side and describe him as shameful and insane and you flood twitter with abusive tweets about him.

    Wade’s primary area of study is retirement, Evidence. He acknowledges that the Old School SWR studies get the numbers wildly wrong. When threatened, he said that there is no need for these studies to be corrected.

    Those are facts that I have reported.

    I’d obviously like to be able to report facts that reflect more favorably on my friend Wade. I don’t control his behavior any more than I control yours. Perhaps you’ve noticed!

    Rob

  41. Evidence Based Investing says

    June 19, 2012 at 2:28 pm

    Wade has shown that Valuation-Informed Indexing always provides much higher returns than Buy-and-Hold at greatly reduced risk.

    That is not true, in fact his research shows that VII does not improve returns.

    Once again your ability to understand financial studies is illustrated.

  42. Rob says

    June 19, 2012 at 2:33 pm

    Good point, Evidence.

    Rob

  43. what says

    June 20, 2012 at 9:48 am

    “Those are facts that I have reported.”

    Mixing up facts with fantasy again I see.

  44. Rob says

    June 20, 2012 at 9:51 am

    You’ve saved the best wine for last, What.

    Don’t let the bad guys get you down, old friend.

    Rob

Trackbacks

  1. Academic Researcher Wade Pfau’s Responses to My Reporting on Our 16 Months of E-Mail Correspondence | A Rich Life says:
    June 12, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    […] Wade’s fourth response came in a comment to another of the blog posts reporting on our e-mail correspondence. In this case, I set forth my responses in comments that […]

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    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

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