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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
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  • Blog
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  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
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  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

Carol Osler, Program Director for the Lemberg Masters in International Economics and Finance at the Brandeis International Business School: “I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession in Action Squelching Unfashionable Ideas….My Other Suggestion Is to Tone Down Your Rhetoric (‘Goons,’ Etc.). Prose Like That Almost Always Backfires.”

February 20, 2013 by Rob

I’ve been sending e-mails to numerous people letting them know about my article reporting on The Silencing of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau by the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. Set forth below is the text of a response I received from Carol Osler, Program Director for the Lemberg Masters in International Economics and Finance at the Brandeis International Business School:

“I certainly have seen the academic profession in action squelching unfashionable ideas and have often been on the wrong side of it. While there’s no magic solution, especially in the short run for individuals with jobs at stake, I sometimes find it calming to see that both philosophy and science are on our side about academics sometimes being profoundly unreasonable. For philosophy, Kuhn was a good start for me. He shows how most pathbreaking scientific ideas are rejected at first, usually for decades. Popper was also helpful. He has very harsh words for scientists who worship math, for example. For science, I am just now reading Jonathan Haist’s book on the psychological basis of morality, The Righteous Mind (2011). He shows, for example, why most ‘scientists’ behave like Kuhn documented, and support the group’s big ideas even in the face of strong evidence to the contrary.”

She continued: “My other suggestion is to tone down your rhetoric (‘goons,” etc.) if you want ‘to make friends and influence people.’ Prose like that almost always backfires. Rightly or wrongly, most readers infer that the writer cannot think dispassionately and therefore logically, and dismiss the whole thing (it’s unpleasant and not their fight, right? So why bother stressing themselves?) Personally, I’d guess the inference is hard-wired, but I’m not a psychologist. I look forward to reading about your insights — which sound distinctly plausible upon reading the abstract — and wish you luck.”

I replied:

“Carol:

“Thanks for your response. I believe that you hit it right on the head with all of your comments.
>
“In one of the conversations I had with Wade, he pointed to a saying in the field that no paper wins the Nobel prize without being rejected numerous times. That of course is a bit of a paradox. But it makes sense because it is only small advances that are immediately accepted. Big advances seem “odd” BECAUSE they take us to unexplored territory. So it takes time for them to win acceptance. I do indeed believe that is what is going on here.
>
“I get your point about the “Goons” language. I know with 100 percent certainty that you are right about this. That sort of language is a big turn-off for most people. I’m in a difficult spot with this, however. I am not a researcher, I am a journalist. And I do my work on the internet. The internet is a very powerful medium in that it permits the rapid spread of new ideas. So those who are threatened by new ideas have had to develop ways to stop the new communications medium from achieving its potential. As a result, I really have been exposed to a lot of behavior that even in all charity cannot be characterized as anything less than “goonish.” I have had people threaten to kill my wife and children. I have had people try to destroy my business and make it impossible for me to earn a living. I have had people destroy discussion board communities that it took me years of effort to build. People threatened to send defamatory e-mails to Wade’s employer in an effort to get him fired from his job. He told me in his e-mails to me that he took those threats seriously (he had seen these people carry through on similar threats on numerous occasions).
>
“I’m not sure that it is possible to tell this story fully and accurately without letting people know about that aspect of things. So I have over time made my peace with just telling the story as it happened, knowing that people will draw unfair conclusions about me when I use language that in this particular case in entirely appropriate. The “Goons” of course count on the reactions that they know most normal people will have; their idea is that, if they are outrageous enough, they can get away with anything because we all refrain from calling people out on such ugliness. It is much akin to the phenomenon in which women who are raped are reluctant to report the crime because it is such an ugly reality that some will conclude that the woman involved must have done something to provoke it (we cannot bear to think that something like this can just happen to an innocent party). At some point, you just have to tell what happened and let people figure it out on their own schedule. The real problem here is of course not the behavior of the Goons, which would in ordinary circumstances not be tolerated by respectable people. It is the disinclination that respectable people have to acknowledge that behavior of this type really does take place and really does have influence on our new communications medium.
>
“Anyway — your words are very insightful and helpful and encouraging. It cheers me to know that there are people who hear the words and the message as clearly and perceptively as you obviously hear them. I thank you for taking my words seriously and for offering me your best wishes.
>
“Things are getting better, by the way. It’s been a slow process. But people are gradually coming around. Many, many people have tried to help and in time those efforts will bear good fruit. The full truth here is that even the Goons want to get to a better place — they are suffering from cognitive dissonance and it causes them emotional pain to come to terms with what they have done to their own retirement plans and to the retirement plans of their friends.
>
“Thanks again. Please let me know if there is ever a time when I can answer any questions or help you in any other way. You have brought a nice measure of cheer to my Thursday evening (there was a technical problem that caused a delay in my receipt of your response).”

Filed Under: Reactions to Pfau Silencing Tagged With: investment research

Comments

  1. banned plop contributor says

    February 20, 2013 at 1:44 pm

    “I have had people threaten to kill my wife and children.”

    A lie. Please provide ANY specific evidence of this often repeated lie. Note that merely linking to YOU repeating the same lie is not evidence. Well, evidence of your mental disorder maybe. But not evidence of any act by any person, per your outlandish claims.

    “I have had people try to destroy my business and make it impossible for me to earn a living.”

    Ditto, another lie.

    “I have had people destroy discussion board communities that it took me years of effort to build.”

    Ditto.

    “People threatened to send defamatory e-mails to Wade’s employer in an effort to get him fired from his job.”

    Ditto.

    “He told me in his e-mails to me that he took those threats seriously (he had seen these people carry through on similar threats on numerous occasions).”

    Ditto.

    Five egregious, ridiculous, unsubstantiated, outlandish, narcissistic lies.

    Provide proof Rob. Prove me wrong. It’s your forum. If evidence to support those claims exists, surely you could link to it here, with impunity.

    But you won’t.

    Because you can’t.

  2. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    http://www.passionsaving.com/investing-discussion-boards.html

    Rob

  3. Evidence Based Investing says

    February 20, 2013 at 3:09 pm

    “She continued: “My other suggestion is to tone down your rhetoric (‘goons,” etc.) if you want ‘to make friends and influence people.’ Prose like that almost always backfires. Rightly or wrongly, most readers infer that the writer cannot think dispassionately and therefore logically, and dismiss the whole thing (it’s unpleasant and not their fight, right? So why bother stressing themselves?) ”

    Excellent insight from Ms Osler. I have a feeling that her suggestion will be ignored.

  4. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/academic-researcher-silenced-by-threats-to-get-him-fired-from-his-job-after-showing-dangers-of-buy-and-hold-investing-strategies/

    Rob

  5. sparky says

    February 20, 2013 at 4:01 pm

    Did I ever tell you about the threats maked against my pink unicorn?

  6. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 4:05 pm

    http://www.passionsaving.com/live-the-good-life.html

    Rob

  7. The Pink Unicorn says

    February 20, 2013 at 4:08 pm

    Yes, it is true. I was sliding down the rainbow in Sparky’s backyard, when a pack of goons came up and threatened me. You now know it is true since I have posted this information on this site. If you still don’t believe me, I will repeat it a few more times, since that is what it takes to create facts.

  8. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    http://www.passionsaving.com/telling-the-truth.html

    Rob

  9. an honest person says

    February 20, 2013 at 7:30 pm

    Guess I’ll have to email Dr. Osler and tell her the truth of the matter. Won’t that help your cause?

  10. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 7:38 pm

    That makes perfect sense, Honest. All of your earlier acts of intimidation have turned out well for you.

    My warmest wishes to you and yours.

    Rob

  11. sparky says

    February 20, 2013 at 7:47 pm

    Rob,

    Just a few more questions

    How many boards have banned you?

    How many emails have you sent to Wade?

    How many emails have you made about Wade?

    How many posts have you made about Wade?

    How many people do you think should go to jail?

    On what basis do you believe people will be charged with a crime that would lead to jail time?

  12. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 8:13 pm

    There have been roughly 15 bannings.

    Wade and I exchanged scores of e-mails.

    The count for the e-mails that I have sent was at 9,500 this morning. I sent 100 more today. So it’s 9,600 at this moment in time.

    I have an article that provides links to all the blog entries about Wade. My recollection is that there were 140. That was before I began the e-mail campaign.

    I’m not able to answer the jail question. My personal preference would be to find some way that no one would go to jail. For years I did all in my power to make that a reality. I don’t think that’s possible today. Too many people have been hurt in very serious ways. I believe that there will be a good number of people going to prison. The question of who and for how long will be one that we will decide as a society. I will be arguing for prison sentences somewhat reduced from those that are supported by the consensus of opinion. I would like to see us focus on the positive side of all this rather than on retribution and all this ugly stuff. I believe that we need to work hard to keep our eyes on the prize.

    No one will go to prison for believing in Buy-and-Hold. There are obviously millions of good and smart people who believe in Buy-and-Hold, The prison sentences will be for those who have engaged in financial fraud over a prolonged period of time. If you have failed to correct a retirement study after learning of an error you made in it, that’s obviously financial fraud. If you threaten to kill people to cover up errors you made in a retirement study, that’s obviously financial fraud. If you ban honest posting at your web site, that’s obviously financial fraud.

    It’s not possible for any one person to say what is right re the prison question or what will happen re the prison question. We have never faced circumstances like this before. People are going to be very angry. And there’s no way to pay them their money back — the money was all pretend in the first place! So there are going to be calls for prison sentences for those who threatened academic researchers and all this sort of thing. I see it as my job to try to rein in emotions and to keep people focused on the positive. That’s why I am working hard today to bring the cover-up to an end. I see bringing the economic crisis to an end as our best option for keeping the prison sentences as limited as possible.

    The charge will be financial fraud. You need to be careful here. The academic research showing that there is zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy can work in the long term was published in 1981. So in an objective sense anyone who has recommended Buy-and-Hold strategies over the past 30 years has engaged in financial fraud.

    The full reality, though, is that the vast majority (perhaps all?) of those who have recommended Buy-and-Hold are suffering from cognitive dissonance. They know in one part of their minds that Buy-and-Hold cannot work. That’s why Buy-and-Holders become so defensive when their strategies are questioned. But they also “believe” in the strategy in another part of their minds. They follow it. I have not seen any evidence that the people endorsing Buy-and-Hold strategies are not following them themselves.

    So you don’t have bad intent. Bad intent is an element of the crime of financial fraud. So an endorsement of Buy-and-Hold in itself is not fraud despite the 30 years of research showing that it cannot work.

    But what about when you have death threats or board bannings or defamation or threats to academic researchers?

    Those acts show bad intent. Those acts turn a misunderstanding of what works in stock investing into financial fraud, a crime under the laws of the United States.

    That’s my sincere take re this matter, Sparky. It obviously would be a good thing if others chimed in. If some want to argue that there is no financial fraud here, we need to hear from them, If others are as concerned about the prison sentences as I am, those people should be speaking up. It is only by speaking up that we can help our Buy-and-Hold friends either avoid prison sentences altogether (in cases in which they have not yet evidenced bad intent) or have their prison sentences reduced (by helping to bring the economic crisis to an end and thereby diminishing the public anger that otherwise might result in very long prison sentences.

    I hope that helps a bit, Sparky. Don’t let the bad guys get you down, man.

    Rob

  13. canyon wanderer says

    February 20, 2013 at 8:16 pm

    so, you can’t tell anyone what law has been violated then. got it. you are just butt hurt that you are a failure. that’s not a crime.

  14. Rob says

    February 20, 2013 at 8:22 pm

    http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/the-bull-market-caused-the-economic-crisis/

    Rob

  15. sparky says

    February 21, 2013 at 9:26 am

    9600? Isn’t that harassment?

    Saying that someone will go to jail for board bannings is just plain silly.

    As for the death threats, you have been asked many times to prove it and you haven’t. All you do is give a link of you just repeating it. Also, I have yet to see any evidence directly from Wade that states he was at risk of losing his job (as you claim). Don’t give me another one of your links just repeating it. Show exactly where Wade said it.

  16. Rob says

    February 21, 2013 at 10:20 am

    9600? Isn’t that harassment?

    Trying to bring an end to an economic crisis is not harassment, Sparky.

    If I could, I would tell the Wade Pfau story on the front page of the New York Times. I hope and expect to do that some day in the future. I will reach millions of people with that article. And that will be a very good thing.

    It’s not the number of people you reach with a message that makes it harassment. It is the content of the message.

    An e-mail that tells people what they need to know for us all to pull together and bring an end to the economic crisis is not harassment. it is a wonderful thing.

    I wish that I had the drive and energy to send 200 of the Wade Pfau e-mails each day instead of just 100.

    I wish that you would help, Sparky. If you sent 20 each day and Dab sent 20 each day and John sent 20 each day and Norbert sent 20 each day and GW sent each day, that would be another 100! That would bring our daily collective total to 200!

    Can we count on you for just 20 e-mails per day, Sparky?

    Rob

  17. Rob says

    February 21, 2013 at 10:27 am

    Saying that someone will go to jail for board bannings is just plain silly.

    It depends on why the board banning was carried out, Sparky.

    If you ban someone because he is abusive, that’s obviously not a problem. If you ban someone because he doesn’t post on the topic of the board, that’s obviously not a problem.

    If you ban someone because you got an important number wrong in a retirement study and you don’t want people to find out, that’s financial fraud, Sparky. That’s a crime. That’s something for which you get sent to prison.

    Look at it from the standpoint of the millions of people who will be suffering failed retirements. Do you think they will look at this 10-year cover-up as having been a funny joke? I sure do not.

    If the people who have banned honest posting had permitted honest posting, those millions of people would not have suffered failed retirements, right? The millions of failed retirements will be the biggest social crisis we have yet experienced as a nation, right? Do you really think that we are not going to hold the people who caused this huge social problem, that it will take decades to overcome, accountable for their actions?

    Why is it that all of these sites have language in their posting rules saying that they will protect us from the sorts of individuals who have posted in “defense” of Linduaer and Greaney if they see nothing wrong with banning honest posting? The published rules lead people coming to the boards to believe that honest posting is permitted. But when it comes to making a buck off the promotion of Get Rich Quick investing strategies, all those promises mean nothing.

    I think people will be held accountable both in civil trials and in criminal trials.

    You are of course permitted to think otherwise. It doesn’t make me dislike you that you think otherwise.

    Fair enough?

    Rob

  18. sparky says

    February 21, 2013 at 10:38 am

    Rob,

    I know you justify in your mind what you are doing, but IT IS HARASSMENT. It is also easy to see why you were banned from the boards as you seem to be the instigator of a hostile environment. See a common thread?

  19. Rob says

    February 21, 2013 at 10:48 am

    I care about my country, Sparky.

    I am going to give it my best shot.

    I wish you all good things, old friend.

    Rob

  20. sparky says

    February 21, 2013 at 10:52 am

    Rob,

    Take a look at this:

    http://www.wisegeek.com/what-are-internet-harassment-laws.htm

    It looks like this describes what you are doing.

  21. Rob says

    February 21, 2013 at 11:06 am

    Here’s an article where I report on the Campaign of Terror of which Wade and I and many other good people have been victims:

    http://www.passionsaving.com/internet-harassment.html

    I have contacted my congressman, Sparky. I have contacted the Purcellville police. They have a file re this matter. I have contacted the FBI. I have contacted numerous lawyers. I have contacted a special division of the Virginia law enforcement authorities that deals with internet crimes. I have contacted the site owners who permitted abusive posting or criminal behavior at their sites. I have sent 9600 e-mails (it will be 9700 by the end of today) to my fellow citizens letting them know of the 10-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School retirement studies and how it has been carried out through the use of actions that constitute criminal financial fraud. I have written scores of guest blog entries on this matter. I have created five unique calculators that help people learn what they need to know to overcome the effects of this fraudulent enterprise. I have posted hundreds of thousands of comments at discussion boards and blogs. I have prayed. I have written and talked this over with a good number of the biggest names in the field, including Jack Bogle and Rob Arnott and Scott Burns and William Bernstein and Larry Swedroe. I have recored 200 hour-long podcasts. I encouraged John Walter Russell to create an entire web site featuring his amazing research. I worked with Wade Pfau for 16 months telling him what he needed to know to prepare the most important research paper published in this field in the past 30 years. I write a daily blog devoted soley to discussion of these matters. I have 200 articles at my web site relating to these matters. I have attended two years of the Financial Bloggers Conference, letting all my fellow bloggers know how important it is that we all work to bring the Campaign of Terror to a full and complete stop by the close of today’s business. I talk about this to my friends at parties and Little League games and picnics and when I bring my boys to the pool. I have prepared a first draft of a book on the subject.

    I have a funny feeling that I am covered re this one, my old friend.

    Just one of those crazy hunches that I experience from time to time.

    I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.

    Rob

  22. sparky says

    February 21, 2013 at 11:39 am

    So, in short, you are guilty of Internet harassment.

  23. Rob says

    February 21, 2013 at 11:48 am

    http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/the-buy-and-hold-crisis/corruption-in-the-investing-advice-field-the-wade-pfau-story/

    Rob

  24. sparky says

    February 21, 2013 at 12:21 pm

    So, you confirm that you are guilty of harassment.

  25. Rob says

    February 21, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/about/

    Rob

  26. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 8:23 am

    Rob,

    Since you believe that you are right and everyone else is wrong, you must have a massive net worth by now. Care to share the details?

  27. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 8:35 am

    We all believe we are right, Sparky.

    You believe you are right. If you didn’t, you wouldn’t be here.

    The difference between me and you is that, while I believe I am right, I ALSO believe that it is possible that I could be missing something and that I could be wrong. So I believe in letting the other guy have his say. That way, if it turns out that HE is right and I am wrong, I get to learn from him and correct my error before it destroys me.

    That’s the practice that you should follow too. I am right about that one! I am sure!

    Rob

  28. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 8:52 am

    I don’t believe everyone else is wrong, Sparky.

    I learned about the errors in the Old School studies from reading Bogle’s book. If I thought he was wrong, I wouldn’t have put up that famous May 13, 2002, post, right?

    I learned that valuations affect long-term returns from Shiller. If I thought he was wrong, I wouldn’t have created the Stock-Return Predictor, right?

    I learned that we today are capable of reducing stock risk by 70 percent from Wade Pfau. If I thought he was wrong, I wouldn’t be sending 100 e-mails per day trying to get the word out about his research, right?

    I don’t even think YOU are wrong about everything.

    I don’t know which Goon you are. But I recorded two podcasts that were rooted in questions posed to my by Drip Guy at the Goon Central board. How would he know to pose those questions if he was wrong about everything? What you are saying here just does not add up.

    You’re not angry with me because you think that I think you are wrong. If you thought that I thought that you were wrong, you wouldn’t care what I thought. You would do your thing and you would be content for me to do mine. It wouldn’t be an issue.

    You are angry with me because you are trying to suppress a part of yourself that knows that I am right. You want to treat those bull market gains as real. And, if you allow yourself to think about what the word “overvaluation” means, you can’t do it. So you suppress the part of your thinking process that leads you to that conclusion. And I remind you of that. So you hate me. BECAUSE YOU HATE THE PART OF YOURSELF THAT CAUSES YOU TO SUPPRESS YOUR CAPACITY TO ENGAGE IN REASON RE INVESTING ISSUES.

    That’s the source of the hate, Sparky. We are so alike and we agree on so many issues that you cannot dismiss what I say. And yet you must! If you were to acknowledge that what I say is OBVIOUSLY so, you would have to acknowledge that you have thrown away opportunities to earn far higher returns at greatly reduced risk. That hurts. That hurts a lot.

    You know what?

    It hurts more to delay the resolution of the hurt. All you are doing is extending it. That’s a lose/lose/lose. It is because I am your friend that I always urge you to experience the pain and thereby put it behind you.

    All the others are doing the same thing.

    Not because they are dumb. Not because they are bad people.

    Because we the humans did not come to this planet with perfect knowledge. We pick up insights here and there and try to put the puzzle together over time. Lots of good and smart people came before me and put lots of important pieces together. I happened to be the person who was standing over the last piece and happened to notice it and picked it up and made the entire thing click.

    So the heck what?

    I don’t say that I get all the credit for Valuation-Informed Indexing. YOU say that. And they you become enraged to hear it. I never said it. I offered my friend John Greaney the opportunity to have his name on the first New School SWR study. He would have the biggest investing site on the internet today if he had taken me up on that offer. He pissed away the chance. Not at my urging. I urged in the other direction. A lot.

    I don’t say that I am better than you, Sparky. I say that science is better than superstition. I say that love is better than hate. I say that data is better than intimidation tactics. YOU are the one who aligns Sparky with superstition and hate and intimidation tactics. YOU are the one who keeps pulling you down, thereby making me look better and better and better in contrast. I have nothing to do with any of that. The only role I have played is to urge you over and over and over again to knock off the funny business.

    I wish you well.

    That says it, Sparky.

    Only you can turn off the hate inside you. No one else has the power to do it.

    Rob

  29. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:00 am

    you must have a massive net worth by now. Care to share the details?

    I’ve got my name on the biggest advance in our understanding of how stock investing works in the history of the planet.

    Are you f’ing kidding me?

    Do you have your name on anything like that?

    Did you ever in your wildest dreams think you would ever have something like that?

    Well, I didn’t either.

    And yet here we are.

    Your envy hurts YOU, Sparky. We are moving to an entirely new model for understanding how stock investing works. That means that there are hundreds of important projects that need to be done. There are books to be written. There are calculators to construct. There are discussion boards to start.

    Get to friggin’ work, my old friend!

    It’s fun!

    And it helps people.

    That’s why you got interested in this stuff in the first place — to have fun and to help people.

    Do it, man!

    Stop wasting your life crawling around in garbage.

    Wake up, man!

    Yes, I have a massive net worth. And for so long as you are still alive you have a chance to acquire a massive net worth too. But it doesn’t come to you by you dreaming up new forms of Goonishness. That stuff is NoWheresVille with a capital “N.” Please make the effort to acquire a basic clue!

    Please do that important thing by the close of business today!

    We all get only so many years, my old friend. I have a funny hunch that you were put on earth for better than the activities you have been directing your energies toward for the past 10 years.

    I only hope that that’s not too “controversial” a statement.

    Holy moly!

    Rob

  30. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:01 am

    I cannot give you the 10 years back, Sparky.

    But you can give yourself the gift of the next 10 years.

    It’s your call.

    Rob

  31. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:14 am

    Rob,

    You seem to be flipping out. It is a simple question. What is your net worth?

  32. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:32 am

    I answered the question, Sparky.

    You are feeling too much pain to hear the answer.

    I pray for you.

    I care and I will help you when you become able to accept help.

    That’s the best offer I am able to make to you.

    Hang in there, man.

    Rob

  33. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:39 am

    Rob,

    No you didn’t. Your net worth is expressed in a dollar amount. Try again.

    By the way, everything you said about me has been wrong and you are using it as a way to avoid answering the question.

  34. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:47 am

    Your net worth is expressed in a dollar amount.

    You couldn’t possibly be more wrong, Sparky.

    This is why you are so full of hate. You know that’s not so. The experiences you have lived through for every day of your stay here on Planet Earth tell you that that is not so. But you are too afraid of the obvious reality to face it. So you play this stupid game in which you tell yourself” “Oh, a person’s entire net worth is expressed in a dollar amount! Oh, yes, that’s so! I’m not a loser! I’m a winner! A person’s entire net worth is expressed in a dollar amount! It is! It sure is! Everyone knows this! This is so!”

    I am not saying you are a loser, Sparky. That’s you saying that.

    I am saying that you should stop ACTING like a loser.

    Do you see the difference?

    I am saying that you are a HUMAN.

    It has its scary side to it. But it has its good side to it too.

    I’m sure.

    Rob

  35. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 9:48 am

    everything you said about me has been wrong and you are using it as a way to avoid answering the question.

    Got it, thanks.

    Rob

  36. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 10:24 am

    Rob,

    Hellen Keller could even tell you are trying to avoid answering the question. It is really simple. Here is a little help if you need the basics:

    http://www.moneycrashers.com/calculate-personal-net-worth/

    Try again Rob. What is your net worth?

  37. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 10:37 am

    You’ve looked at some of the source material, Sparky. But you’ve also missed out on important stuff. Have you checked this one out?

    http://www.amazon.com/Mans-Search-Meaning-Viktor-Frankl/dp/080701429X

    If not, you need to get to work, my old friend. That one addresses a question that is as basic as it gets.

    Do you see?

    Rob

  38. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 10:40 am

    Rob,

    Quit avoiding the question. Try again. What is your dollar net worth.

  39. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 10:41 am

    You’re saying that, if I agree to post dishonestly re safe withdrawal rates, I’ll be able to make a big bunch of money exploiting human weaknesses.

    I get it.

    The other side of the story is that I will feel like a creep. I will begin to hate myself, like someone we both know and care about.

    Has my net worth increased or diminished when I put a few bucks in my pocket at the price of coming to hate myself?

    I say “diminished.”

    What say you?

    Does personal integrity count for anything in your calculations of net worth?

    It counts in mine. Part of the job of achieving A Rich Life is living a life rooted in personal integrity.

    You cannot skip important steps.

    It will not work in the long run.

    Rob

  40. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 10:44 am

    What is your dollar net worth.

    Zero if I give up my personal integrity.

    If I give up my personal integrity, I am not longer the person I have been striving to become for 56 years now.

    If I maintain my personal integrity, I am the person primarily responsible for the biggest advance in our understanding of how stock investing works. In that case, my net worth is essentially infinite.

    Infinite net worth vs. zero net worth.

    It’s not taking me a long time to figure out how to play this one, Sparky.

    Rob

  41. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 10:59 am

    Rob,

    If you want to talk about philosophy, write a blog about philosophy. Answer the question. What is your dollar net worth?

  42. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 11:10 am

    Your problem (and this really is your core problem, not some little thing) is that you think it is possible to separate what you call “philosophy” from what you think of as “dollar counts” or “money issues.”

    Buy-and-Hold was a huge advance over what we had before. There is no one alive who has greater respect for the Buy-and-Hold pioneers than I do. The Buy-and-Holders almost got it right.

    The trouble is that almost doesn’t cut it when it comes to financial planning. You have to actually get it right. The part that the Buy-and-Holders missed was the thing you call “philosophy.” It’s probably better referred to as “humanity” or “emotions.”

    Stocks are bought and sold by humans. If that were not so, Buy-and-Hold would work. But it is so. It is the single most important reality of stock investing. Ignore it and you get it all wrong. Create a numbers-based approach and ignore it and you get a numbers-based approach that gets all the numbers wrong.

    This is why we are where we are today Sparky.

    We all want the same things. The Buy-and-Holders are proud of their work and rightly so. I am impressed by their work and feel gratitude to them for the work they did. But I also want their work to help people. I want their work to bear good fruit. For that to happen, they need to get the numbers RIGHT. For that to happen, they need to fix the part of the story that they missed when writing their first draft. They missed the human part, the emotions part, the “philosophy” part.

    You can’t get from where you are today to where you deep in your heart very much want to be tomorrow without traveling through Human Land, or Emotions Land, or Philosophy Land, or whatever you want to call it, Sparky.

    I am here to be your guide. I am 100 percent happy to help out in any possible way.

    I 100 percent refuse to say the words you want to hear, that it is possible to calculate one’s net worth without making a stop to Human Land or Emotions Land or Philosophy Land.

    On the day I post dishonestly re safe withdrawal rates, my net worth drops to zero.

    It ain’t gonna happen, my old friend.

    Give up that sick dream and we can become good friends again and have lots of fun together.

    It hasn’t happened in 10 years. It won’t happen in 10 billion years.

    It ain’t gonna happen.

    Rob

  43. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 11:13 am

    If you want to talk about philosophy, write a blog about philosophy

    What I want to do is to write a blog about money issues that isn’t a big pile of b.s., a blog about money issues that actually helps people.

    That’s the project. That’s the job that I have taken on.

    Posting dishonestly on SWRs does not advance the mission.

    So that’s out.

    It’s not a close call.

    Rob

  44. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:00 pm

    Rob,

    Do you take dieting advice from an obese person? Let’s talk about money. Quit avoiding the question. What is your dollar net worth?

  45. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:09 pm

    Do you believe in accrual accounting?

    My net worth, measured properly, includes the settlement I will be receiving from The Stock-Selling Industry, no? I have suggested that I would be willing to consider a settlement payment of $500 million.

    Say that I have 5 million today. That’s inconsequential in a portfolio of over $500 million, no?

    Now say that I have 5 cents today. That’s ALSO inconsequential in a portfolio of over $500 million, no?

    What I have today is something between 5 cents and 5 million. Whatever the number is, it is inconsequential given the total size of my portfolio of something in excess of $500 million.

    What matter is the $500 million.

    That’s one of many reasons why I am unwilling to post dishonestly on safe withdrawal rates. That would be financial fraud. That would land me in prison. Where I couldn’t spend the darn $500 million!

    I want to spend the darn $500 million. So I have zero willingness to post dishonestly.

    Do you see?

    Rob

  46. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:13 pm

    Would you take dieting advice from a marathon runner?

    Someone who is worth in excess of $500 million is a marathon runner in the money realm.

    You should be asking yourself — What has that fellow figured out that I have not figured out that he has $500 million and I do not?

    The answer is — I figured out that it is not possible to engage in effective financial planning without holding onto your personal integrity.

    I am happy to share insights. I am happy to help you learn what you need to learn to earn your own $500 million.

    I am not willing to lose my $500 million by engaging in financial fraud. I am not willing to post dishonestly on the numbers my friends use to plan their retirements.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  47. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:18 pm

    Rob,

    You are avoiding the question once again with you non-existent legal claim. What is your real dollar net worth. Answer the question.

  48. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    I’ve answered it about eleven times in this thread alone, Sparky.

    You need to work through your emotional pain on your own time and on your own dime and then return here for productive discussions of how to invest effectively.

    I cannot do that for you, my good man, It is an inside job.

    I certainly wish you well.

    Rob

  49. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:28 pm

    The pain is all your’s. Stop avoiding the question. What is your dollar net worth.

  50. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 12:40 pm

    What is your dollar net worth.

    I cannot give you a number down to the penny, Sparky.

    It is well in excess of $500 million. Any one who has been paying even a little bit of attention for the past 10 years knows that much.

    The $500 million is the number that applies if the settlement offer is made prior to the next crash. The number is obviously going to be a multiple of that if the offer does not come until after the crash. The entire purpose of putting forward the lowball offer is to encourage the Wall Street Con Men to come clean before they cause another price crash.

    The fact that I am worth over $500 million and you are not should tell you something about the value of maintaining one’s personal integrity in circumstances in which there are people applying heavy pressure on you not to do so.

    My guess is that you will not be able to hear that message today.

    But I hope that someday you do.

    I’ll be there for you on that day, my long-time abusive-posting friend.

    Rob

  51. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 1:48 pm

    You don’t have your fantasy $500million. It is all part of your diversion. What is your dollar net worth.

  52. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    Are the 150 glowing endorsements of my work that appear at the “People Are Talking” section of my site a fantasy, Sparky?

    Are the five calculators that appear at this site and at no other site on the internet a fantasy?

    Are the 100 investing articles a fantasy?

    Are the 200 hour-long podcasts a fantasy?

    Is Wade’s Nobel-Prize-worthy research that is the product of our 16 months of working together a fantasy?

    The fantasy here is the idea that a Get Rich Quick strategy can work in the long term.

    There’s not one academic researcher who longs to be doing honest work today, Sparky. There are hundreds, perhaps thousands.

    When those people are freed to do honest work as a result of my efforts, is there going to be one person in the United States who will not agree that I am entitled to a payment much, much larger than $500 million? I doubt that there will be one, including you.

    The research showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing lowers the risk of stock investing by 70 percent is not a fantasy. It is real.

    What is a fantasy is your idea that by threatening the researcher whose name in on the research you will be able to keep the millions of middle-class people who need to know about that research in the dark indefinitely.

    You can’t do it.

    When they find out what you have done, you will be going to prison.

    I have a funny little hunch that that experience won’t turn out to be anyone’s idea of a fantasy.

    I wish you all good things, my old friend.

    Rob

  53. sparky says

    February 22, 2013 at 3:35 pm

    Rob,

    Stop diverting with your trip to fantasyland and answer the question. What is your dollar net worth?

  54. Rob says

    February 22, 2013 at 3:50 pm

    It’s something in the neighborhood of $500 million, Sparky.

    When you pass the $100 million mark, you stop worrying about whether you are up $1 million this month or down $1 million this month.

    It’s something in that general neighborhood in any event.

    My best wishes.

    Rob

  55. sparky says

    February 25, 2013 at 11:10 am

    Still deleting my comments, I see. Are you hiding something, Rob?

  56. Rob says

    February 25, 2013 at 11:29 am

    Oh, yes!

    I’m hiding that I agreed to participate in your 10-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School SWR studies so that you would drop your smear campaign against me.

    Did I mess up somewhere down the line?

    Is word starting to leak out?

    Oops!

    Rob

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    July 1, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    […] Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a discussion thread at this blog: […]

  4. “You Are Angry With Me Because You Are Trying to Suppress a Part of Yourself That Knows That I Am Right. You Hate Me Because You Hate the Part of Yourself That Causes You to Suppress Your Capacity to Engage in Reason re Investing Issues” | A R says:
    July 1, 2013 at 3:18 pm

    […] Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a discussion thread at this blog: […]

  5. “But I Am More Inclined to Playing UP the Attacks Than to Playing Them Down. I Titled My Ignite Presentation ‘How to Become the Most Hated Blogger on the Internet.’ I Could See Doing More of That Sort of Thing, Letting People Know Right says:
    July 22, 2016 at 7:51 am

    […] Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School […]

What’s Here

  • Bennett/Pfau Research (62)
  • Beyond Buy-and-Hold (117)
  • Bill Bengen & VII (8)
  • Bill Bernstein & VII (4)
  • Bill Schultheis & VII (2)
  • Brett Arends and VII (1)
  • Carl Richards & VII (8)
  • Daily Caller Articles (10)
  • Economics — New and Improved! (103)
  • Financial Highway Column (11)
  • From Buy/Hold to VII (394)
  • Guest Blog Entries (96)
  • Index Universe & VII (11)
  • Intimidation of VII Advocates (66)
  • Investing Basics (535)
  • Investing Experts (97)
  • Investing Strategy (56)
  • investing theory (23)
  • Investing: The New Rules (120)
  • Investor Psychology (95)
  • J.D. Roth & VII (17)
  • Joe Taxpayer & VII (14)
  • John Bogle & VII (97)
  • Larry Evans and VII (12)
  • Lindauer/Greaney Goons (475)
  • Michael Kitces & VII (43)
  • Mike Piper & VII (31)
  • Podcasts (200)
  • Reactions to Pfau Silencing (71)
  • Reality Checker (4)
  • Return Predictor (12)
  • Risk Evaluator (11)
  • Rob Arnott & VII (4)
  • Rob Bennett (306)
  • Rob E-Mails Seeking Help (67)
  • Rob's E-Mails to Researchers (1)
  • Robert Shiller & VII (105)
  • Roger Wohlner and VII (5)
  • Saving Strategies (23)
  • Scenario Surfer (3)
  • Scott Burns & VII (8)
  • Silencing of Wade Pfau (97)
  • Strategy Tester (5)
  • SWRs (89)
  • Todd Tresidder & VII (3)
  • Uncategorized (24)
  • Various Experts & VII (33)
  • VII Column (720)
  • Wall Street Corruption (363)
  • Warren Buffett & VII (5)

Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

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