Economics Professor Valeriy Zakamulin: “I Can Understand Why Robert Shiller Cannot Tell People About All His Ideas on How Stock Investing Works. He Must Act Very Professionally. He Can Only Tell Those That Are Supported by Scientific Research.”

I’ve been sending e-mails to numerous people letting them know about my article reporting on The Silencing of Academic Researcher Wade Pfau by the Buy-and-Hold Mafia.

Yesterday’s blog entry reported on my correspondence with Economics Professor Valeriy Zakamulin. Set forth below is the text of the e-mail that Valeriy sent me in response to the e-mail detailed in the earlier report:

>

Dear Rob,

>

I apologize for not being able to respond to all points in your mail, I just do not have so much time.

>

When it comes to the paper of Arnott, co-authored by Nobel Laureate H. Markowitz, I am familiar with the paper. First, if a Nobel Laureate co-authors a paper, this does not automatically means that this paper is an excellent paper (if you are interested in the flaws of other Nobel Laureates, read about the collapse of the Long Term Capital Management http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management). This paper does have some weaknesses. For example, the size effect is mainly due to the January effect, the value effect is also partly due to the January effect. This paper, which supposedly explains both the size and value effects, cannot account for the January effect.

>

I can understand why Robert Shiller cannot tell people about all his ideas on how stock investing works. Being a recognized Yale Professor, he must act very professionally, he can only tell those that are supported by scientific research.

>

It seems to me that you do not really understand how the market timing strategy works and a possible total collapse of the stock market. From the long-term perspective, the period of 1990s was a period of a great stock market bubble according to the PE10 model. But was it rational to withdraw money from stocks in 1990 and put them into bonds? Not at all, if you used Shiller’s model you would miss the great return over 1990s. Market timing strategy implied selling the stocks in about 2001 and place money in bonds. But what if all investor pursued this strategy? I am sure that all the stock prices would dropped to zero. You disagree with the assumption that investors are rational, but at the same time you actually believe that investors are rational and the mass sale of stocks ends when the PE10 ratio approaches its long-term average. This will never happen if the investors are irrational. As a proof of my point, read about the stock market crash of 1987 (see for examplehttp://hnn.us/articles/895.html). One of the main causes was the popularity of the portfolio insurance strategy which requires selling stocks when prices drops. When everyone implements this quite sensible strategy, then the stock market crashes.

>

I am not familiar with the papers by W. Pfau, if they were critisized, maybe the critique was well grounded?

>

I believe that if people knew about PE10 model in 1970, then the period afterwards would be a period of only good economic times. Here you are wrong. The stock market is only a barometer of the state of economy. I believe that for a capitalism economy it is natural to have periodic boom-bust cycles.

>

Valeriy

Comments

  1. banned plop contributor says

    Ruh-roh.

    Looks like another person for Rob to sue, for disagreeing with him, and having sold out to the evil cabal aligned against Rob’s single handed search for truth, justice and the American way.

  2. Rob says

    That’s sure not the idea a community reader who reads my correspondence with Valeriy would have, Banned. I express gratitude and appreciation and admiration over and over and over again throughout that correspondence.

    You are right that Valeriy and I don’t agree on all points.

    What makes Valeriy different from the Lindaurheads and Greaney Goons is that she does not put forward death threats or tens of thousands of acts of defamation or demand unjustified board bannings or threaten to get academic researchers fired from their jobs for the “crime” of publishing honest research.

    That’s why you are going to prison after the next price crash and Valeriy is not, my old friend.

    Please take good care.

    Rob

  3. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    Making stupid comments like that make you an easy target for jokes and redicule. Even in your wildest dreams of stock crashes, etc., not a single person is going to jail, let alone even being charged with anything. There is no basis, despite your blatherings to the contrary.

    You just sound like a school child who is crying because the other kids won’t let you play with them on the playground. Grow up and act like a man.

    Geesh!

  4. says

    Most of the people who have been engaging in brutally abusive posting practices for 11 years now were friends of mine prior to the day that I put up my famous post pointing out the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies. I care about those people, Pink. I am going to continue to do what I can to help them out.

    If you don’t care to accept the offer of help, that’s your call. I accept your right to refuse. It makes me sad. But it is your call, not mine.

    I wish you all the best that this life as to offer a person, in any event.

    Rob

  5. The Pink Unicorn says

    Threatening to sue people is abusive.

    No one needs your help. As many have told you, you have no basis for a lawsuit.

    On the other hand, there is proof that you have made threats and have also caused harm.

  6. what says

    Interesting. This reads exactly like some of the things I have tried to teach you a while ago. When you were a bit more sane.

  7. Rob says

    Threatening to sue people is abusive.

    So, if you were a friend to Joe Paterno who told him to disassociate himself from Jerry Sanduski prior to the time that Paterno’s career was ruined by his association with Sanduski, you were being abusive to Paterno?

    I don’t buy it, Pink.

    Rob

  8. Rob says

    No one needs your help.

    I am the one who has to live with my conscience, Pink.

    If the people to whom I offer help elect not to take the offer, that’s on them. That I can live with.

    I could not live with myself if I did not make the offer. So I will continue to make it. It’s not a time-sensitive offer.

    Rob

  9. Rob says

    As many have told you, you have no basis for a lawsuit.

    I recall a time when there were one or two telling me that I had no basis for my claims that John Greaney got the numbers wildly wrong in his retirement study, Pink.

    It’s funny how things turn themselves around over time. No?

    Rob

  10. Rob says

    Interesting. This reads exactly like some of the things I have tried to teach you a while ago.

    It makes me happy that you find value in Valeriy’s comments, What.

    It’s my job to present both side. It’s my assessment that she did a good job in presenting some the points often made by “the other side.”

    Rob

  11. Rob says

    Thanks much for correcting that, Trebor.

    My correspondence with Valeriy was around Christmas-time. I remember looking it up back then and making a mental note always to refer to him with the male pronoun. Unfortunately, my human brain messed up the note and informed me yesterday to do just the opposite. Yikes!

    I don’t think I will forget again!

    Sorry, Valeriy!

    Rob

  12. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    Typical diversionary, weak and/or non responses from you and, of course, you are always the victim. I sometimes wonder if all of your posts are part of a running joke. Certainly, no one would spend 11 years acting like this as part of a joke, however. Therefore, it is easy to see how many come to a conclusion that you must be suffering from a mental illness.

  13. Rob says

    I think we are all victims, Pink. Everyone living in the global economy today.

    Shiller’s research took us light years ahead of where we were before we had it. We are the luckiest group of investors ever to walk Planet Earth!

    But what have we done with this new knowledge?

    We have developed a deep, widespread feeling that it would be too painful to the Buy-and-Holders for them to have to acknowledge that they made mistakes when developing the first-draft of a research-based approach. So we have adopted a Social Taboo that stops us from talking about the realities.

    The result is that someone like Jack Bogle, who should be viewed as one of the true geniuses in this field, ends up being known as the fellow with the greatest responsibility for bringing on the Second Great Depression.

    That’s some great kindness to the Buy-and-Holders that we are evidencing!

    Not this boy, Pink.

    I want Bogle to stop hurting. I want you to stop hurting. I want Lindauer to stop hurting. I want Greaney to stop hurting.

    The hurting stops when the Ban on Honest Posting comes to an end.

    The parts of Buy-and-Hold that are truly rooted in research can be discussed without any need for those advocating them to advance death threats or tens of thousands of acts of defamation or demands for board bannings or threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.

    The parts that can only be “defended” through the use of such smelly garbage are smelly garbage themselves and should be ditched by every single investing “expert” on Planet Earth by the close of business today.

    That’s my sincere take, Pink.

    I’ll do anything I can to help my Buy-and-Hold friends, who I respect and admire and love.

    I will do NOTHING to prolong their pain. All acts of dishonesty re safe withdrawal rates and the scores of other topics re which the industry is now engaged in a cover-up, cause more pain.

    Not interested.

    Please try to find someone else.

    I can’t go for that.

    No can do.

    Rob

  14. Rob says

    it is easy to see how many come to a conclusion that you must be suffering from a mental illness.

    It’s a particular form of mental illness called “Caring Too Much for Your Fellow Community Members to Agree to Post Dishonestly re the Numbers They Use to Plan Their Retirements,” Pink.

    I post honestly or I post not.

    Non-negotiable.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  15. The Pink Unicorn says

    Robe,

    You are just repeating the same tired lines over and over again. It is just a script for you, but has nothing to do with truth, honesty or reality.

    The only one “hurting” is you.

  16. The Pink Unicorn says

    Ron,

    No need to say thanks, as you don’t really consider the points made. Instead, you just want people to agree with you.

  17. Rob says

    I certainly don’t agree even a tiny bit with many of the points you make, Pink.

    And I of course want people to agree with me. That’s why I put so much effort into arguing my points!

    I thank you because part of my obligation as a journalist is to provide balance. You disagree with me strongly re all sorts of things. You say things here that I could never come up with if I tried for 10 years. You have an entirely different perspective.

    If you did not post here, I would still try to provide balance. But I just couldn’t do as good a job. Because I lack the life experiences and point of view that empower you to come up with some of the stuff you put forward. When you take time out of your day to grace us with your words, you help me do my job of providing balance in an important way. You also of course help all of my readers to understand that there is a different side to the story than the one I present.

    Thanks again, old friend.

    Rob

  18. The Pink Unicorn says

    Balance? That’s a joke. All you do is repeat the same lines over and over again.

  19. The Pink Unicorn says

    Meanwhile, I am sure you want to tell me how I am “hurting” and about the silencing of honest posting, and those nasty goons, and pending jail time, and how Jack is your friend, and blah, blah, blah……………..

  20. Rob says

    That’s my job, Pink.

    We are the luckiest generation of investors that ever lived.

    We know today how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent.

    So what have we been doing for the past 11 year? Arguing over whether we should permit honest posting on safe withdrawal rates on the internet or not.

    Huh?

    We need to move on, Pink.

    The first step is coming to terms with what has happened. We are in an economic crisis. We need to talk about WHY. We need to talk about the HURT we ALL feel (I was a Buy-and-Holder once upon a time too, you know).

    It’s my JOB to get all that stuff out where we can deal with it together, heal the wounds, and move on.

    It is NOT my job to cause any unnecessary pain. So I hope you never see me doing anything that causes UNNECESSARY pain.

    But, yes, we must talk about the real issues.

    The LEAST painful way to proceed is to get this all out in the open so that the pain is in the past rather than in the future. From that point forward, it’s all fun stuff.

    I spend all my time trying to think up ways to speed up the transition. I wish we ALL were doing that.

    And, yes, Jack is my friend. If you cannot see why it is important for me to say that, you are missing a big piece of the puzzle.

    Jack is my friend. And so are you.

    I am doing everything in my power to make your life better. I have been doing this for 11 years now.

    I much look forward to the day when you start HELPING ME OUT.

    Things will go a lot quicker once we turn that corner.

    I am sure.

    Rob

  21. The Pink Unicorn says

    Your JOB? A job is when someone gives you work in exchange for pay. What you do is not a job.

    There is no “we”, it is you….and what YOU have been doing for the last 11 years is throwing a hissy fit because people have banned you from their boards because they can no longer tolerate you.

    The only one that is “hurting” is you because you can’t get anyone to join your little pity party from being banned.

    Avsforum causing unnecessary pain talk to Wade about that……oh, wait, we only need to look at the email he sent you.

    You are not my friend or Jack’s friend or anyone else that does not acknowledge a friendship.

    I don’t need you to save me from anything and I have yet to see anyone else that says they need to be saved by you either. We are all grown up boys and girls and can be responsible for ourselves.

    Rob- Go find a REAL job.

  22. Rob says

    We are all grown up boys and girls and can be responsible for ourselves.

    And yet you find yourself in circumstances in which you will be going to prison for financial fraud following the next crash.

    Somehow I have a feeling that you have not been handling your responsibilities with 100 percent perfection, Pink.

    Just one of those crazy hunches I experience from time to time.

    Rob

  23. Rob says

    Go find a REAL job.

    Who discovered the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies, Pink?

    Hugely important stuff or not hugely important stuff?

    Rob

  24. The Pink Unicorn says

    No Rob. Cut the crap on the prison garbage. We are all responsible for our own financial decisions. Smart decision and stupid decisions. You know stupid decisions….like retiring on only $400K while still having a young family at home. What a joke in your assumption as to the handling of my finances. I have a growing family as well. I have way more than $400K in savings, a nice pension plan, paid off home, retirement healthcare benefits, etc., yet I would not be stupid enough to quit my job hoping that I can live off of my investments. I will be making sure that my family is well secure and self supportive before making a move like that. It is called PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. A real novel concept, right Rob????

    So Rob, get a job. Stop being a victim. Stop acting like you are going to “save” everyone. Stop living a fantasy that you are going to win the lottery with your bogus lawsuit strategy.

  25. Rob says

    We are all responsible for our own financial decisions.

    There are millions of people who were in the process of planning retirements during the years 2002 through 2013. We “knew” as a society at that time that the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies got the numbers wildly wrong. Yet the millions of people who were planning retirements did not “know” this. Why? Because the Buy-and-Hold Mafia was employing death threats, board bannings, tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs to stop those millions of people from learning what they need to know.

    Who is responsible for the losses, Pink? Who pays the bill?

    The millions of middle-class people did the right thing. They didn’t act foolishly. They went on the internet to see what the peer-reviewed academic research says. They did all they possibly could do, no?

    So why were they taken? Because the Buy-and-Hold Mafia did not use its power and money and influence to get those studies corrected as soon as possible. It instead used its power and money and influence to COVER UP the errors in those studies.

    Now –

    They can’t pay the bill. There is not enough money to pay the bill. So those people are going to suffer in horrible, horrible ways. They will be left destitute. In their old age. With no resources. After lifetimes of productive work. Because they did the right thing. Because they listened to the Wall Street Con Men who are promoted 24/7 on television and radio and newspapers and on the internet.

    If you are capable of imagining a scenario in which the people who led the cover-up don’t go to prison for a long. long time, then you are capable of imagining something that I am not capable of imagining, Pink.

    I certainly wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, in any event.

    Rob

  26. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    Blah, blah, blah…..just more victim mentality. The REAL problem people have in retirement is that they haven’t saved enough. Sound familiar? There are plenty of studies/statistics to back that up.

  27. Rob says

    just more victim mentality.

    Please talk to Bernie Madoff’s victims, Pink.

    THEN tell us that, just because financial fraud does harm to many, many victims, it is not a crime.

    I don’t buy it.

    There is nothing in the laws prohibiting financial fraud that says that, if there are many victims, the crime is excused.

    Rob

  28. Rob says

    The REAL problem people have in retirement is that they haven’t saved enough.

    This has nothing to do with why you are going to prison, Pink.

    If someone doesn’t save enough, you don’t go to prison because of that.

    If you engage in criminal behavior for 11 years to cover up errors in a retirement study, you go to prison.

    My best wishes to you.

    Rob

  29. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    Your Bernie Madoff line doesn’t work. Bernie was running a Ponzie scheme. It is like saying every company is like Enron.

    Your problem is that the facts/statistics don’t back you up. The retirement problem in America is a lack of savings and you qualify to be the poster child.

    You did a poor job at planning and when you combine that with the fact that people tossed you off their chat boards, you took on the victim mentality.

    Cry me a river, Rob.

  30. Rob says

    The vast majority haven’t saved enough

    The savings rate was low when Bernie Madoff was sent to prison, Pink.

    Rob

  31. Rob says

    Bernie was running a Ponzie scheme.

    Buy-and-Hold is a Ponzi scheme, Pink.

    That’s why the retirement studies have not been corrected for 11 years. To correct the retirement studies is to expose the Ponzi scheme.

    If Buy-and-Hold were legitimate, we never would have seen a single death threat or a single board banning or a single act of defamation or a single threat to get an academic researcher fired from his job.

    People pushing legitimate strategies never engage in such behavior.

    Such behavior is common among people trying to “defend” Ponzi schemes.

    Rob

  32. The Pink Unicorn says

    The savings rate has been low for a very long time and has continued to be low regardless. Your Bernie Madoff line doesn’t work.

    It doesn’t matter if the return rates are 2%, 4%, 10%, or whatever, when 57% of Americans haven’t even saved $25,000 towards retirement. Take a look at the charts. 88% of people have less than $250,000 AT RETIREMENT. Hello, McFly……….they haven’t saved enough and will need to spend down the principle.

    People are too busy buying the next IPhone, new clothes, eating out, taking a vacation, etc. Take a look again at the savings rate. The savings rate has been low in good times and in bad times.

    Like I said, YOU are the one that didn’t save enough and that is YOUR problem with YOUR retirement security. Bernie Madoff didn’t tell you to quit your high paying job and retire with your paltry savings amount. But you know what, Rob. You have company. The vast majority of Americans are like you. They just haven’t saved enough.

  33. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    Buy and hold, market timing, etc are all investment strategies and you can debate all day long as to the pros and cons. They are NOT a Ponzi scheme. Stop acting like a fool.

    Just like usual, you are caught yet again on the wrong side of the facts and your default is to use your typical scripts of Bernie Madoff, prison, etc.

    The basic facts are clear. People haven’t saved enough for the return to really matter. We are basically talking about a very select group of people that have accumulated a sizable amount of savings to where a difference of several percentage points really matters to their annual income.

  34. Rob says

    I don’t feel even a tiny bit comfortable posting dishonestly re the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements, Pink.

    My best wishes to you and yours.

    Rob

  35. Rob says

    Buy and hold, market timing, etc are all investment strategies and you can debate all day long as to the pros and cons.

    Not if there are death threats, you can’t. And not if there are board bannings, you can’t. And not if there are tens of thousands of acts of defamation, you can’t. And not if there are threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs, you can’t.

    That’s why we have laws protecting us from the sorts of individuals who engage in such behavior. That’s why you are going to prison after the next price crash.

    Do you see?

    Rob

  36. The Pink Unicorn says

    By your definition, YOU should be going to prison. You have been asked many times by many people about proof of the threats and you have failed each and every time. However, we have seen documentation of YOU making such a threat.

    You have been banned at boards for acting like a fool. It is no different than someone that DELETES posts. Sound familiar Rob????

    The Academic Researcher you often speak of is Wade Pfau. With his own words, it is YOU causing him the greatest harm.

    So, Rob, why are you so compelled to want to go to Prison?

  37. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    Do you think they will give you the cell next to your friend, Bernie?

  38. Rob says

    YOU should be going to prison.

    The person who discovered the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies should go to prison because of the 11-year cover-up of those errors.

    That makes perfect sense, Pink.

    If the jury is made up of six friends of Mel Lindauer and six friends of John Greaney, I no doubt will go to prison for a long time. I no doubt will get the death penalty.

    I am betting a throw of the dice that there will be at least one person on the jury who is not a full-fledged Goon.

    We’ll see.

    That’s the entire drama of the thing, no?

    Rob

  39. Rob says

    You have been banned at boards for acting like a fool.

    It was foolish of my to think that some of my fellow community members might want to use accurate numbers when planning their retirements.

    Good point, Pink.

    Rob

  40. Trebor Martin says

    Rob,

    Don’t you find it the least bit disturbing that you spend most of your waking hours going back and forth with a pink unicorn?

    Why not spend some quality time with your family?

  41. says

    The job is what the job is, Trebor.

    I didn’t ask for Pink Unicorns.

    But if the world sends you Pink Unicorns, you make Pink Unicorn soup!

    …or something like that!

    Rob

  42. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    You don’t have a job. A job is when someone pays you money in return for labor/services.

    If what you did was a job, you would have been fired by now. You want to talk about withdrawal rates when the big problem is that people haven’t saved enough in the first place. That is like debating the merits of a 5th floor room versus a 6th floor room after checking into the Bates Motel (either way, your not “checking out”).

  43. Rob says

    You want to talk about withdrawal rates….

    I didn’t start the discussion on safe withdrawal rates, Pink.

    I built the Retire Early board at Motley Fool into the most successful board at that site. Our focus was NOT safe withdrawal rates. It was the Passion Saving principles that I explore in my book.

    It was John Greaney who on a daily basis tried to turn the discussion to safe withdrawal rates. There were many people at that site who believed what he said in his study. These people were handing in resignations from high-paying jobs based on a SWR study that got the numbers wildly wrong. These people were friends of mine.

    Do you deny that I had an OBLIGATION to that entire board community to point out the errors in that study?

    I even offered at one point never to discuss safe withdrawal rates again so long as Greaney also never brought up the subject. His answer? No dice.

    I will make that offer again. I will agree not to discuss the errors in the Old School SWR studies at any discussion board or blog that has banned honest posting over the past 11 years SO LONG AS the site owner makes it a rule of the site that no one can advocate Buy-and-Hold investing strategies at the site.

    Fair enough?

    Rob

  44. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    From what I have read and have also seen in MANY examples, you were banned due to your continued abrasive attitude as well as your refusal to answer direct questions as well as provide proof to back up your claims (such as threats). If you had been banned on one of two boards, one could say that maybe there was the possibility that someone overreacted in banning you. However, when you see that it is consistent behavior from you followed by the consistent reaction of those that read the boards and administer the boards, it is clear to see that the problem is you.

    I gave you an example of a similar issue the other day. As I mentioned, I was looking at old postings on the FMF board. I am sure you will agree that this particular board is mostly devoid of confrontation and friction. However, we saw what happened when the comments section (heavily dominated by you) surpassed 100 comments in very quick order and FMF had to shut down the comments. This is not an exception. It seems to be a pattern for you.

    You seem to have a campaign every time you post and try to drive over people like a Mack Truck.

  45. Rob says

    I am grateful to you for asking a real and important question here, Pink. You are giving voice in this particular comment to a feeling that is shared by many smart and good people.

    To understand what is going on, you must understand the context in which these discussions have been taking place.

    Buy-and-Hold was the first effort at a research-based strategy for ordinary people. People LOVE the idea of rooting their investing strategies in peer-reviewed academic research. Buy-and-Hold provided millions of people with AMAZING results for DECADES. People LOVE Buy-and-Hold. They view the Buy-and-Hold pioneers as HEROES.

    I say that Buy-and-Hold is dangerous. I say that it is irresponsible. I say that it is a Get Rich Quick scheme. I say that it caused the economic crisis. That’s strong stuff. That strikes the many good and smart people who view Buy-and-Hold in a very positive light as SHOCKING.

    People have never heard anyone say the things I am saying before. My words come as a shock. That’s why my posts generate so many questions and comments. It’s not anything I do that causes this. It is the nature of the discussion that causes this. I am questioning fundamental beliefs. That is unsettling on a deep level. People respond in all kinds of unusual ways when their fundamental beliefs are questioned.

    The Buy-and-Hold Mafia has handled this by shutting down debate at every board and blog. THAT IS A TERRIBLE MISTAKE.

    We need to do just the opposite. We need to ENCOURAGE debate. We need to have a NATIONAL debate. We need these discussions to go viral. We need to get tens of thousands of people, experts and ordinary investors both, involved.

    Why?

    Because that is how we Normalize the discussions.

    We are never all going to agree. It wouldn’t be healthy if we did.

    But you are right that we cannot have 200 questions directed to Rob each time he says “hello, how about them Orioles?” We need people to come to accept that there is more than one legitimate viewpoint on all these questions. To do that, we must educate people as to the basics. We do that through discussion. Rather than shutting down discussions, we need to encourage discussions.

    Once we do that, the phenomenon that you refer to will fade away in a natural way. You won’t have to force it to happen. It will happen because people will come to know the answers to their many questions. Whether they change their minds about what works in investing or not, they will settle down. Valuation-Informed Indexing will over time become one more thing to take into consideration when deciding on an investing strategy.

    I have put forward the new ideas. I don’t apologize for that. The new ideas are very much worthy of the consideration of every investor alive.

    I have not caused the circus atmosphere. We have seen a circus atmosphere because debate on these questions has been held back for so long that, when people have an opportunity to ask some questions, their enthusiasm flows over the top of the cup.

    Yes, we need to settle things down a good bit.

    But not by further suppression.

    We need to settle things down by handling discussions of investing strategy in the same way that we handle discussions of every other subject under the sun. We need to accept that there is more than One Right Way to Invest and show respect and affection and gratitude to those who hold viewpoints other than our own that they seek to share with us on discussion boards and blogs.

    Rob

  46. The Pink Unicorn says

    You said “I have not caused the circus atmosphere.”

    Yes you have. When you see a consistent pattern, it identifies the problem. The comments are the same. It really isn’t that hard for anyone to see.

    I now when each of us feel that we are personally attacked, we don’t like admit our faults. If I get one or two comments about my behavior, etc., it may or may not be true. However, if I get a large number of consistent comments, it is very likely to be true.

    Think about it Rob, you have been banned from more boards than anyone else that we can name. All of these boards have periodic disagreements and other confrontations. However, in your case, there has been a constant pattern of interaction that has a very broad and consistent outcome. There is no mass conspiracy.

  47. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    This all circles back to our discussion the other day on credibility.

  48. Rob says

    The comments are the same.

    The fact that the comments are the same doesn’t show that the cause of the problem is me, Pink.

    There is now 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing that Buy-and-Hold is the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind?

    What would you expect to see when someone came along to question the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind. You would expect to see precisely what we have been seeing for 11 years now.

    I didn’t create Buy-and-Hold, Pink. That was the other guy.

    I am the fellow trying to take Buy-and-Hold to a far, far better place.

    That is done through honest and civil discussion. There is no other way that this very important goal can be achieved.

    Rob

  49. Rob says

    There is no mass conspiracy.

    Not if by “conspiracy” you mean people meeting behind closed doors and concocting plots.

    But, if by “conspiracy” you means lots of different people from lots of different walks of life not understanding today all there is to know about how stock investing works in the real world, yes, there is a conspiracy. It is a Conspiracy of Ignorance.

    We need to bring it to an end. Doing so is a Win/Win/Win/Win/Win.

    And we have no realistic options available to us other than achieving that Win/Win/Win/Win/Win. The alternative (the Second Great Depression) is too horrible to contemplate.

    Rob

  50. Rob says

    This all circles back to our discussion the other day on credibility.

    My credibility is in the 32 years of peer-reviewed academic research that backs up what I say.

    In its glory days, Buy-and-Hold’s credibility was in academic research too.

    Today Buy-and-Hold’s “credibility” is in Death Threats and Board Bannings And Tens of Thousands of Acts of Defamation and in Threats to Get Academic Researchers Fired from their Jobs.

    Not good.

    Not a close call.

    You and your Goon friends are putting the nails into the coffin of all that the Buy-and-Hold Pioneers tried to do.

    I am the one trying to bring Buy-and-Hold back to life by making all that is good about it (a great deal) workable in the real world.

    Rob

  51. Rob says

    This all circles back to our discussion the other day on credibility.

    “Credibility” is “What Is Believable.”

    What is believable changes in a dramatic way on the day following the next price crash.

    Rob

  52. The Pink Unicorn says

    You said:

    “Today Buy-and-Hold’s “credibility” is in Death Threats and Board Bannings And Tens of Thousands of Acts of Defamation and in Threats to Get Academic Researchers Fired from their Jobs.”

    You have never backed up the so called death threats with any 3rd party proof despite countless requests. Instead, we see that you have made threats. You have been banned from boards for reasons that are clear because of your behavior, but also you LACK credibility. Your continued accusations around potential harm to Wade falls flat when we see that he has clearly stated that YOU have caused him much greater harm.

    Yes, it is not a close call. You are no where even close to having one bit of credibility. You have done it to yourself.

  53. Rob says

    These matters will be decided by juries, Pink.

    That’s as it should be.

    Rob

  54. The Pink Unicorn says

    Rob,

    The people you accuse have not been charged with any crime, nor will they. Each time you talk about prison, lawsuits, etc., it just comes off as a threat to scare people. As you can tell, no one takes you seriously on the subject.

  55. Rob says

    I have no control over how people take things, Pink. That part is not on me.

    I do have control over whether I do the right thing or not. I believe that the right thing is to offer the hand of kindness and leave it to the people involved to accept or not. I don’t personally expect you to accept.

    The full reality here is that I am going to do all I can to spin things in your direction regardless of whether you accept the hand of kindness or not, This is NOT a time-sensitive offer.

    You’re right that there is no one but me talking about prison sentences today. If, after the crash, there are lots of others talking about prison sentences, I am going to come to your defense. I am obviously not going to say that no prison sentences are appropriate. But I am going to point to the unusual circumstances and argue that a certain amount of mercy is appropriate in this case.

    You’ve got that without doing anything. And you get no more by doing something. If you accept the hand of kindness, I am not going to do more than what I would do after the crash. I am not going to lie. I am just going to make an effort to put some positive spin on things. So you get nothing extra from me by accepting the hand of kindness.

    Except time.

    It happens sooner if you accept. I see that as a plus for me, for you, the all the experts in this field, and for the millions of middle-class investors. But that’s it. There’s nothing else on the table here but speeding up the timing on all this.

    If that sounds good to you, please feel free to jump at the offer. It was intended to entice you to do that.

    If it’s not your particular cup of tea, play it out the way you have been playing it out and we’ll all see what number turns up together.

    That’s the story, my man.

    No threats. It’s an offer. If you like the sound of it, take it. If you don’t, go on with your life. I obviously have zero ability to send anyone to prison and I obviously have zero desire ever to acquire such abilities. So you have precisely zero to worry about from me.

    Rob

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