Set forth below is the text of a comment that the author of the Joe Taxpayer blog recently put to a discussion at his site:
It’s fascinating to me how the signal to noise ratio dropped like a rock. I’m a numbers guy. And I believe I understand Rob’s thesis, that future returns, over the next decade, have a tight inverse correlation to the PE10 for the starting point. If someone disagrees, I’ll look at the counterpoint. Remember, correlation doesn’t need to be 100%, only that there’s a bell curve of potential outcomes that shift meaningfully based on the input.