Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site:
But you expect people to somehow anoint you as a sage when all you’ve done is repeat something that far more capable and far more schooled and far more successful people have said for decades if not centuries.And if THEY could not develop a magic timing scheme that works in today’s (and tomorrow’s) world, what gives you the hubris to think you, and you alone, could do so?
I don’t care if people anoint me as a sage or not. What I care about is that the words that appear next to my name express my sincere beliefs, that they not be lies. If I say that the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies report the SWR accurately, I am telling a lie. So I am not going to say it, no matter how much in the way of intimidation tactics you apply to me.
How is it that I have done something that smarter people who have worked in this field before me have not been able to do?
Many of those people did their work prior to 1981. Shiller’s “revolutionary” findings changed everything.
Many of the people who did work in this field after 1981 had already done work in this field prior to 1981 and had associated themselves with Buy-and-Hold beliefs. Those people were compromised by their pride in discredited belief and by the friendships they formed at times when the research they needed to put the puzzle together had not been available to them.
Many of the people who did work in this field after 1981 and who were not compromised by taking a false pride in earlier, discredited work were intimidated by the brutal intimidation tactics of those who had.
That leaves me, Anonymous.
I never did any work in this field prior to 1981. So I was not compromised by earlier, now-discredited work. I have done my work post-1981, so I have had access to Shiller’s research. And I have refused to be intimidated by the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. I think a big factor there is that I formed personal friendships with many of the people whose lives were destroyed by Greaney’s refusal to correct the errors in his study. None of this is purely theoretical to me. It is a story of human lives being destroyed by the lowest of the low on the internet.
You make it sound as if no one else has been smart enough to see that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage. There is of course nothing that could be farther from the truth. The very reason why we have seen such abusive behavior from you Goons is that JUST ABOUT EVERYONE sees. Freakin’ Jack Bogle sees it! Bogle is the king of Buy-and-Hold. If the King of Buy-and-Hold sees that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage, who the heck DOESN’T see it? You Goons obviously see it or you wouldn’t behave the way you do.
The others can be bought off or intimidated into silence. I cannot. Why not? One very obvious factor here is that I am not employed in this field. With Wade Pfau, you can threaten to get him fired from his job and he has to think about what will happen to his two small children if he insists on his right to post honestly. I have never received a penny of income in this field. So there is nothing you can take away from me. So I continue to post honestly despite the threats.
You can threaten bloggers that link to me and try to destroy my efforts to earn a living on the internet. That COULD work. But I’ve got 11 years worth of Post Archives that would ruin me if I were to agree to post dishonestly and 11 years worth of Post Archives that stand to make me a huge sum of money following the next price crash if I resist your demands that I agree to post dishonestly. I don’t think you need an I.Q. of 140 to figure out what is the better play for me in these circumstances.
If Buy-and-Hold hadn’t already been ready to collapse when I came on the scene, I couldn’t have done this. I wouldn’t have been able to find honest comments from people like Bogle and Bernstein and Swedroe and Burns and Kitces and Pfau and on and on and on if people had not already begun positioning themselves for the post-crash years at the time I put forward that famous post of the morning of May 13, 2002. I was born at the right time, you know? I didn’t plan this, I fell into it.
What matters is where we stand. Behind Door Number One is Valuation-Informed Indexing and the greatest period of economic growth ever known in our history. Behind Door Number Two is a continuation of the Campaign of Terror and the onset of the Second Great Depression.
I choose Door Number One. Call me madcap. I have a funny feeling that many millions will be joining me following the next price crash, regardless of your intimidation tactics.
The deal here is that you can join in on all the fun or you can stretch your prison sentence out to the longest possible period of time. Those are the two live options available to you today. I beat you a long, long, long, long time ago. The proper way to put it is that the peer-reviewed academic research beat you, I just reported on it accurately and thereby got picked up by the biggest wave ever seen in the personal finance world. Bogle and the others have given you what you need to stretch out the pain. But no one can stop the first true research-based strategy from burying the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the human mind 30 feet in the ground, where it can do no further harm to humans and other living things.
You want my help, you’ve got it.
You demand as a condition that I post dishonestly on safe withdrawal rates, please look up someone else, I am not the right fellow for the job.
I wish you all good things.