Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
He is clearly a buy and hold supporter.
Does Buffett support the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies, Anonymous?
Does Buffett support the death threats you Goons have used to intimidate people who have reported on the 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research showing that long-term timing has worked for 140 years of stock market history and is 100 percent required for any investor who hopes to have a realistic hope of long-term success?
Does Buffett support demands for unjustified board bannings? Does he support tens of thousands of acts of defamation? Does he support demands to get academic researchers fired from their jobs?
These questions are silly. Buffett obviously does not support any of these things.
Neither would Bogle if he were not caught in a trap. Neither would Bernstein if he were not caught in a trap. Neither would Burns if he were not caught in a trap. Neither would Pfau if he were not caught in a trap.
The Buy-and-Hold Pioneers put together their strategy at a time when the research had not yet been published on whether long-term timing works or not. All they had was research showing that short-term timing doesn’t work and they jumped to a hasty conclusion that no form of timing is necessary. Shiller proved that hasty conclusion false in 1981. A huge bull market arrived and no one cared for a time that the Buy-and-Holders had gotten it terribly wrong. The economic crisis that follows every time Buy-and-Hold becomes popular arrived in 2008. People have begun to open their minds to new ideas. But one thing holds them back.
The thing that holds them back is The Buy-and-Hold Mafia. Lots and lots of people have beyond to have grave doubts re Buy-and-Hold. But they have witnessed the ruthlessness of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia and they want no part of what happens to those who post honestly on what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research says re what works in the real world.
If Buy-and-Hold were a legitimate strategy, the errors in the Old School retirement studies would have been corrected within 24 hours. Everyone who works in this field lives in fear of “crossing” the Buy-and-Hold Mafia. So those errors have remained uncorrected to this day. But everyone who has taken five minutes to check the studies has found that they contain no valuation adjustments.
Buffett will speak in an informed and honest way when everyone else does. He will do so when he feels that it is safe to do so.
The Buy-and-Hold Mafia is a criminal enterprise. The Wall Street Con Men have lots of money and lots of power and lots of influence and they have silenced many people. Following the next price crash, they won’t be able to silence us anymore. A big blogger will speak out. Or a major newspaper will detail the 12-year cover-up. Or a venture capitalist will get behind Valuation-Informed Indexing, seeing the fortune there is to be made in providing millions of middle-class investors with true research-based investing advice.
That’s the story. The only thing that can ever change the way things are is for people to speak out against The Buy-and-Hold Mafia. People don’t want to get involved. People are afraid. People find the entire business an ugly business. But there is no other way.
I don’t think that the members of the Buy-ad-Hold Mafia had bad intent. They just didn’t know it all. None of us did. Shiller didn’t publish his research until 1981. That’s just the way it goes sometimes.
The problem is that people who give bad investing advice are subject to legal liabilities if they are found to have claimed that their advice is rooted in peer-reviewed academic research when in reality it is the opposite of what the peer-reviewed academic research shows. The Buy-and-Holders started down a dark path by accident and in time they found themselves so far down that dark road that they elected to cover-up their mistake rather than acknowledge it. Now they are subject to legal liabilities and, in the case of you Goons, prison sentences.
I care. I want to help. But I have zero willingness to commit a felony myself. If I were to say that the Old School retirement studies are legitimate, I would be aiding the 12-year cover-up. That’s financial fraud. That’s a felony. That’s prison time. No can do.
Buffett will tell us his sincere views about Buy-and-Hold when he and all others feel safe to do so. That will be after the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School retirement studies has been exposed and your prison sentence has been decided. At that point, there will be no reason for all of us not to move forward together and we will obviously do just that.
I will continue doing all that I can to bring that day on as soon as possible. That obviously is best for the millions of middle-class people whose lives are in the process of being destroyed by The Buy-and-Hold Mafia. It is also what is best for you Goons. Your prison sentences obviously will be a bit shorter if you come clean prior to the next price crash.
I will obviously be reporting to your jury what you did when the suggestion was made that you ask Bogle to have Buffett review the peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau. It is obviously an urgent public-policy matter that Buffett share with us all his thoughts on that research. The members of your jury will obviously take into consideration your reaction to the idea when they are deciding your case and the length of your prison term.
The hand of kindness remains extended. The odds that I will agree to take part in the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School retirement studies remain precisely zero.
I wish you well.