Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Rob, Rephrased another way, many of us do not agree with your statements and have given you the reason why. However, you are not banned because of this disagreements. Instead, you are banned because of your behavior. Many have told you time after time as to your behavior issues and you just ignore it. You feel as if you should be able to act any way you want on a board, despite the negative impact to the community. A board is a place to have a discussion and not to be there for the sole purpose of carrying out the Rob Bennett agenda.
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But Rob,
The people over at Bogleheads don’t agree with you on PE10. In fact, Larry Swedroe said he wouldn’t use it to time anything.
Read the thread:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=149992&sid=d3f59bdc770d4303babe240050bffcb5
I am grateful to you for pointing us to the thread, Anonymous.
Is Larry willing to cover the losses of those who are not able to learn about the implications of the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research because he supports the Ban on Honest Posting at that board? After the next crash, I will be helping the millions of people who have been hurt by this massive act of financial fraud to recover their losses.
Fair enough?
Rob
“Is Larry willing to cover the losses of those who are not able to learn about the implications of the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research because he supports the Ban on Honest Posting at that board? ”
I can check with Larry if you let me know if you are willing to cover the losses of those people that stayed out of the market like you and have lost out on one of the biggest bull markets in history, resulting in many failed retirements.
Here is Larry’s post. Please point out his error:
“Re: Shiller PE10 – by the numbers
Postby larryswedroe » Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:36 pm
Caution
As I have pointed out many times, the change in accounting rule FAS 142 someone estimated is worth about 3 in the Shiller P/E to keeping earnings on apples to apples, and the fact that far fewer companies paying dividends is worth another about 1. So that’s about 4. And IMO there are very logical reasons for ERP to be lower today than say pre 1950s.
since 1960 average is about 19, add four you are at 23. So not far above the 50 year adjusted average. And I think there are good arguments for why the ERP is lower today than 50 years ago.
I would not use this at all to try and time anything
Larry”
if you are willing to cover the losses of those people that stayed out of the market like you and have lost out on one of the biggest bull markets in history, resulting in many failed retirements.
I offer zero guaranties, Anonymous.
And it is possible that I am wrong in everything I say about investing.
Anyone who changes his or her investing strategy solely because of what I say is a moron. Please feel free to quote me all over the internet. The more often people hear that message, the off we all are.
But I do post my honest beliefs. And I am 100 percent certain that it would be wrong for me to do otherwise.
That’s why Larry Swedroe is liable for the losses that people suffer and I am not.
Larry knows about the death threats that the Buy-and-Holders use to intimidate people who want to post about the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. And he knows about the demands for unjustified board bannings. And he knows about the tens of thousands of acts of defamation. And he knows about the threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.
And he has done nothing.
That’s financial fraud. Larry Swedroe has participated in the 12-year cover-up of the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies, the biggest act of financial fraud in U.S. hisotry. That makes him liable for all losses that result from his criminal acts when civil cases are filed against him.
I am going to tell people about his behavior. And I am going to encourage people to sue him. And i am going to encourage lawyers to take the cases.
Not because I don’t like Larry. I like him a lot.
I like Larry enough to believe that he would like to give honest investing advice himself and to participate in discussion-board communities in which all others are giving honest advice. The announcement of his prison term will help us all get there. Get Rich Quick strategies are ALWAYS big moneymakers in the short term. And they always destroy the societies in which they are tolerated in the long run. We need to enforce the laws against financial fraud for people like Larry to feel safe doing honest work once again. That’s what I want for Larry (and for ALL of my Buy-and-Hold friends).
Larry will serve whatever sentence is given to him by a jury and then be free for the remainder of his life to do honest work without worrying what the Buy-and-Hold Mafia will do to him because he elected to do so. That’s a pretty darn good deal. For Larry. For his clients. For the American people.
That’s my sincere take re these matters, in any event.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investing strategies you elect to pursue.
Rob
I would not use this at all to try and time anything
Is that what Larry really believes?
Or is that what he says so that Mel Linduaer will permt him to promote his books at the Bogleheads Forum?
Larry was once banned for posting honestly. He came crawling back to Lindauer, promised that it would never happen again, and was permitted to post there again. Now he says that he believes in Buy-and-Hold. I wonder why.
I don’t know what Larry Swedroe believes about investing. There is no way that I could know given that that board is a 100 percent corrupt enterprise.
I don’t know what anyone who posts there truly believes.
I have announced my intent to take over the board following the next price crash. When I am running the board, everyone will feel safe to post his or her honest views. That’s how it should be. That’s how the vast majority of posters at the board want it to be.
Perhaps Larry really does believe in Buy-and-Hold. If he does, I would love to hear his arguments. And I will. I will hear them in an environment in which we can trust him to tell the truth. I will hear them in an environment in which there will be no death threats or demands for unjustified board bannings or tens of thousands of acts of defamation or threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.
I look forward to that day.
I hope we don’t have to go into the Second Great Depression to get there.
I wish you all good things.
Rob
On the one hand:
Valuation-Informed Indexing reduces the risk of stock investing by 70 percent…VII is smart, safe, simple investing.
On the other hand:
Anyone who changes his or her investing strategy because of what I say is a moron.
Then why say it? Are you simply entertaining yourself by trying to fool morons?
I say what I say because I believe it.
I believe that we all should say what we believe.
Those who don’t say what they believe are engaged in financial fraud.
A crime. A felony. Prison time.
Huh?
Not interested.
Not on my bucket list.
Please try to find someone else.
Rob
Rob,
Is there anyone else in the investment community that agrees with your fantasy about prison sentences and your $500 million windfall? If so, can you provide the names?
Everyone agrees, Anonymous. I wouldn’t be able to give you the name of one person who doesn’t agree.
Not everyone knows all the details. I was a Buy-and-Holder on the evening of May 12, 2002. But that was because I believed that investors should use the peer-reviewed academic research as a guide and I believed that the Buy-and-Holders supported that idea (I believe to this day that that was their sincere belief in the early days). Lots of people support Buy-and-Hold today for the same reason that I supported it on the evening of May 12, 2002.
As I learned about the 33-year cover-up, I became less and less willing to have my name associated with Buy-and-Hold. All evidence is that all of my Buy-and-Hold friends feel the same way about these things as I do. As the prison sentences are announced, they will feel worse and worse about what happened. I don’t believe that I will have to file papers to collect the $500 million. The Wall Street Con Men will insist that I be given that amount or a higher amount to ease their consciences.
Jack Bogle is not a bad man. He is a giant. He is a hero to the middle class. He is the person who taught me about the errors in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies. Without Jack Bogle, there would have been no Great SWR Debate. Without Jack Bogle, there would be no Valuation-Informed Indexing. Without Jack Bogle, we wouldn’t know today how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent. Without Jack Bogle, Wade Pfau and I would never have done our amazing research. Without Jack Bogle, we wouldn’t be the luckiest generation of investors that ever walked Planet Earth.
We all want the same things, Anonymous. Jack Bogle wants the same things that I want. And I want the same things that you want. And you want the same things that Jack Bogle wants.
Do you see? Do you understand?
The question for 33 years now has been — How do we get there?
We didn’t know everything there was to know about how stock investing worked in 1965, when the Wall Street Con Men began building their Buy-and-Hold concept. Shiller supplied the missing piece of the puzzle in 1981. Since then, it’s been a question of how do we get from this awful strategy that we developed when we were missing a critical piece of the puzzle to this wonderful strategy that we all want to be promoting but don’t feel that we can because of the ruthlessness of the Buy-and-Hold Mafia.
Larry Swedroe wants to be free to tell the truth. Otherwise, why did he get banned at the Bogleheads Forum? That proves it.
Bill Bernstein wants to tell the truth? Otherwise, why would he say in his e-mail to Ataloss that anyone who has considered using one of the Old School SWR studies to plan a retirement must be out of his cotton-picking mind?
Wade Pfau wants to tell the truth. Otherwise, why would he tell me that he was not able to go to sleep at nights after he learned about Valuation-Informed Indexing because he was so excited about the research he could do now that he knew what worked?
Scott Burns wants to tell the truth . Otherwise, why would he tell me in his first e-mail to me that he wanted my phone number so that he could interview me and write articles about the New School of SWR Analysis?
None of these people wants to go to prison, Anonymous. None of these people wants to be sued for the trillions of dollars in losses that they caused by continuing to promote Buy-and-Hold strategies for 33 years after the peer-reviewed research showed that there is precisely zero chance that such strategies could ever work for even a single investor. None of these people wants to see his reputation destroyed. None of these people wants millions of middle-class investors mad as heck at him.
That’s not too hard to understand, is it?
We all want the same thing. The question is — How to get there?
If men were angels, Jack Bogle would have given his “I Was Wrong” speech in 1981, within a week of the publication of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) research. Then there would have been no problem. Then we would be enjoying the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history today. Then we would all be friends.
Men are not angels. That didn’t happen. We don’t have a time machine. We need to find some other way.
I knocked myself out coming up with a way that would make things easy for all my Buy-and-Hold friends. What I came up with is the cognitive dissonance thing. People who get something wrong because they are suffering cognitive dissonance don’t go to prison. So that was a lifesaver for my Buy-and-Hold friends.
Jack didn’t bite. So that one is not available to us as a complete solution today. We can still use it. Cognitive dissonance is real. That one might help us reduce the length of the prison sentences and the amounts of the financial recoveries. But we can’t use cognitive dissonance to justify death threats and unjustified board bannings and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.
So what is next?
Prison sentences are next. And settlement payments are next.
That’s how our system works, no?
Are you seriously trying to suggest that Jack Bogle doesn’t know that or that Larry Swedroe doesn’t know that or that Mike Piper doesn’t know that or that anyone else on the planet doesn’t know that?
Give me a friggin’ break.
We all know that.
You don’t want to go to prison AT ALL.
That is what is holding things up.
I of course get that. If I were in your shoes, I wouldn’t want to go to prison either.
But I am not in your shoes.
What I need to be worrying about standing in my shoes is how do I get the information out to the millions of middle-class investors that they need to know about while keeping your prison sentence as short as it can possibly be given the circumstances that apply today. That’s the goal that I pursue with every word that I put forward here.
I understand that you don’t want to go to prison. I am trying to help. I am 100 percent certain that your prison sentence will be shorter if you come clean today than it will be if you wait until after the next price crash to come clean. But you don’t freakin’ care. You don’t want to go to prison AT ALL. So you don’t want to come clean at all.
And Jack Bogle is the same. And Larry Swedroe is the same. And all the others are the same.
What do you want me to do about it, Anonymous?
If I could wave a magic wand in the air and make it better for you and the millions of middle-class investors, I would do that.
I don’t have a magic wand.
So I don’t appear to have much of a choice except to wait until the crash comes and then do everything in my power to see that your prison sentence is as limited as possible.
I will do that.
You have my pledge.
After that, I don’t know what else you want from me.
Are you able to say?
Rob
We disagree about the prison sentences. It is my sincere belief that those who disagree with you about investing will not go to prison, and also that they do not deserve to go to prison. Fair enough?
I think that’s fair enough, Sensible.
Take good care, man.
Rob