Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
Ok, so like everyone over at Bogleheads, you make allocation decisions based on a number of factors. And yet, you’re “VII” and they’re “get rich quick”. What exactly is the difference between you and them, in practice?
The difference is that I don’t advance death threats or demands for unjustified board bannings or tens of thousands of acts of defamation or threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. The difference is that I want to LEARN from the peer-reviewed academic research and the Buy-and-Holders want to BLOCK Learning of what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed academic research says.
That’s the only difference, Anonymous. You are right that the Bogleheads take a number of factors into consideration when setting their allocations and you are right that I do the same. But there is obviously SOMETHING that distinguishes us. That something is the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research. Everything that I say is rooted in Shiller’s “revolutionary” findings of 1981. And Bogle hasn’t changed his investing advice one iota in those 33 years. He is saying the same thing today as he was saying in 1980!
I am saying that we should move out of the Dark Ages of investing analysis and get the word out to every investor alive about what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research says. There is not one person alive on Planet Earth who doesn’t want to see that happen, including Bogle.
The trouble is that Bogle (and lots and lots of others, to be sure) has committed financial fraud by covering up the findings of the peer-reviewed research for 33 years. So he worries that permitting honest posting at the Bogleheads Forum will land him in a prison cell.
What do you want me to do about that?
I BEGGED the man to come clean before the economic crisis hit. Had he come clean back them, I don’t think he would be going to prison AT ALL. So I did right by him, no?
And I came up with this thing where we attribute his behavior to cognitive dissonance rather than evil intent. I think it would be fair to say that no one else has come up with a better way to get him off the hook for his obstinate behavior. So I CONTINUE to do right by him, no?
What else can I do?
You tell me the difference between us. I considered myself a Buy-and-Holder on the morning of May 13, 2002. It never entered my head that there would be anyone other than Greaney who would consider it a bad thing that I discovered a major error in the Old School retirement studies and corrected it. Would you say that Bogle and the other Buy-and-Holders have been appreciative of my efforts? It sure doesn’t seem that way to me.
There is only one type of poster banned at the Bogleheads Forum — those of us who tell the truth about the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research. Why do you think that is? It cannot possibly just be coincidence that the same type of poster is banned over and over and over and over again.
It is that the Bogleheads CLAIM to believe that investors should be following the peer-reviewed research but have not updated their investing strategy to reflect the research from 1981 forward. That’s the entire problem.
Update your strategy and we are all on the same side. Update your strategy and we can bring the economic criss to an end and enter the greatest period of economic growth in U.S. history. Update your strategy and you will no longer see any need to advance death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and tens of thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Update your strategy and there will no longer be any need for you to tell The Big Buy-and-Hold Lie (that there is some mystical, magical research somewhere showing that it might not be 100 percent necessary for ALL investors to ALWAYS practice price discipline when buying stocks).
This lie is in the process of destroying our country.
Do you care?
So I am telling.
But that’s it. There are no other differences. The Buy-and-Holders started out doing something wonderful and then they made a perfectly understandable mistake and then they elected to cover it up rather than acknowledge it and now we are seeing the cover-up of a cover-up of a cover-up of a cover-up.
Everything works if you fix Buy-and-Hold to reflect the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research.
If you don’t, you end up in a prison cell. And the rest of us end up in a Second Great Depression.
Is that clear enough? Am I stating things plainly enough for you to get the general idea at long last?
Following the peer-reviewed research is a good idea. But you must be willing to be honest about what the research shows or you turn a good idea into a very, very, very, very BAD idea.
Buy-and-Hold AS IT IS PROMOTED TODAY BY PEOPLE LIKE JACK BOGLE is a very, very, very, very bad idea.
I love Jack and all my other Buy-and-Hold friends. So I naturally want to do everything I can to persuade them to leave this dark, dark path they entered on the morning of May 13, 2002, and get back to where they once belonged.
The difference is lies versus truth. The difference is darkness versus light. The difference is Get Rich Quick versus research-based. The difference is short-term versus long-term. The difference is hate versus love.
Do you see?