Set forth below are the texts of two comments that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
The problem is that you do not understand what Shiller is saying and he has stated that you cannot use his data for timing the market. That goes for both short and long term, Rob.
You are lying, Anonymous.
If there were a statement by Shiller in the public record saying that long-term timing does not work, you would provide the URL.
No such statement exists.
Buy-and-Hold is a lie. It started as a mistake. But Shiller published the peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that it could ever work for even a single long-term investor in 1981. A mistake that is covered up for 33 years is a lie. This particular lie has caused more human misery than any earlier lie ever told in the history of personal finance.
Shiller would LOVE to feel free to say that long-term timing always works and is always required for investors hoping to have any chance whatsoever of achieving good long-term results. He fears for what the Buy-and-Holders will do to him if he tells the truth in plain and simple and honest language. He knows from personal experience how ruthless the Buy-and-Hold Mafia is. Just about everyone who has worked in this field for any length of time knows that.
I didn’t know it when I put forward my famous post of May 13, 2002. But then I never worked in this field. There is no reason why I should have known.
I believe that Shiller will come clean following the next price crash. I believe that Pfau will come clean following the next crash. I believe that Bogle will come clean following the next crash.
I believe that all of these people know that death threats do not have a place in investing discussions and that demands for unjustified board bannings do not have a place in investing discussions and that tens of thousands of acts of defamation do not have a place in investing discussions and that threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs do not have a place in investing discussions. They all want to come clean but they all fear what will happen to them if they do.
If men we angels, Bogle would have put out a statement on the day he learned about Shiller’s 1981 research. He would have said: “I have long believed that Buy-and-Hold is a sound strategy but I want all who listen to my words to know that there was research published yesterday by an Economics professor at Yale showing that Buy-and-Hold may in fact be the purest and most dangerous Get Rich Quick scheme ever concocted by the mind of mortal man. It was not my intent to concoct a Get Rich Quick scheme. I have a hard time accepting that this research really says what it very much appears to say. I am going to have to think this matter over very carefully in coming days and try to make some sense of this. It is my hope that my words today will launch a national debate on these questions and that the fruits of that national debate will help me work my way to a better understanding of how markets work. For now, I personally still lean toward believing that Buy-and-Hold can work, at least in some circumstances. But it is important that all investors understand that there is now serious research pointing to a conclusion that that is not at all the case and each investor is going to have to study these matters before putting money in the market and make his or her own decision as to how to proceed while we “experts” struggle to figure out either how we messed up in earlier days or how this Yale Economics Professor messed up in the research he published yesterday. We are all on the same side. Let’s all work together to create a wonderful Learning Experience that will benefit investors for many, many generations to come!”
My good friend Jack did not say those words at that time. That’s why we are in the mess we are in today. He faked it. He covered up the evidence that he had messed up in a big way. As the cover-up extended longer and longer, the thought of seeing the truth get out grew more and more worrisome. Jack has now gone so far as to associate with the sorts of individuals who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney. Jack has now committed multiple acts of financial fraud (at least in an objective sense — it is my belief that he is suffering from cognitive dissonance, which excuses some of his behavior but certainly not all of it).
We will see how things work themselves out following the next price crash, Anonymous. I love my country. I will continue to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and many other critically important investment-related topics. My hunch is that you will continue with the cover-up. Working together, I believe that we could shorten your prison sentence a bit by having you come clean today and by thereby helping millions of people avoid the financial devastation of another price crash. My sense is that you are not willing to take steps that lead to any prison sentence at all and that you understand that the time at which coming clean could have helped you avoid any prison sentence at all are years back in the past.
So be it. It is what it is. I wish you all good things. But I possess zero willingness to commit acts of financial fraud myself. Prison is not my particular cup of tea. Find someone else. I can’t go for that. No can do. Not this boy.
Please take good care, my longtime abusive posting friend.
I’ll give a shorter response.
You Goons have connections with Bogle. If you thought that there was anything greater than a zero percent chance that you could persuade Shiller to make a public statement that long-term timing either does not work or is not required, you would ask Bogle to send Shiller an e-mail asking that he make such a statement.
You have not done this.
I wonder why.