Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
If I give you a link that backs up Shiller saying not to use CAPE to time the market, will you agree to apologize and admit you were wrong and also admit you are wrong on buy-hold-rebalance? I would also expect you to apologize to those you have called goons on this issue.
I am willing to back up my comment or do you want to just apologize now.
The statement would have to be “don’t use CAPE to engage in long-term timing” for me to do any of those things.
Fama showed in 1965 that short-term timing doesn’t work. The same 140 years of historical return data that shows that all investors who want to have a realistic chance of long-term investing success MUST, MUST, MUST practice long-term timing (price discipline) also shows that short-term timing doesn’t work.
The Big Buy-and-Hold Lie is the suggestion that the finding that short-term timing doesn’t work somehow suggests that long-term timing (price discipline) either might not work in some circumstances or might not be 100 percent required in some circumstances. I am not trying to cover up that lie. I am trying to EXPOSE that lie. I want hundreds of millions of middle-class people to know how their financial futures and our economy have been destroyed by the reckless and relentless and ruthless promotion of that lie by the Wall Street Con Men and their Internet Goon Squads.
It is my thought that we should permit ethical people to work in this field. I see it as a win/win/win/win/win.
Do you see?