Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
I’ve known that I was holding a winning hand going back to Day Six, the day that John Walter Russell posted his sensitivity analysis of the Greaney retirement study.
I never thought it would take this long. You guys got me re that one. You got me one-hundred times over re that one.
But I knew how it would end going back to the first week of our discussions. I never experienced a moment’s doubt re the general ending point after I saw the Russell sensitivity analysis way back in May 2002. I believe in research. I believe in numbers. I believe in objective truth. I believe in science.
It was the death threats of August 27, 2002, that caused me to abandon Buy-and-Hold. I believed from May 2002 through August 2002 that the Old School SWR studies could be corrected and Buy-and-Hold reformed. It was the death threats that told me that we needed to replace Buy-and-Hold with a new model rooted in Shiller’s research. But I knew the general ending point going back almost to the first day.
Even on the very first morning, the anger of the Buy-and-Holders set off my spidey sense. But I wasn’t sure whether to trust my spidey sense until I saw John’s sensitivity analysis. From that point forward, it’s just been a question of going deeper and deeper and deeper.
Hang in there, Goons. There is someone out there in this world who cares about your welfare a whole big bunch more than you care about your own welfare.
And he works it hard! Yowsa!