Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
It is fine for people to disagree and this happens almost every day on most of the popular financial boards out there.
There is some disagreement on most boards. But the range of acceptable opinion is far too narrow.
One time I put up a post at a blog in which I described Buy-and-Hold as “a Get Rich Quick scheme.” One fellow posted that he had never heard anyone say that before. That’s the problem.
Shiller didn’t publish his “revolutionary” (his word) research last week or last month or even last year. He published it in 1981. There should be a common understanding today that there is now 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that Buy-and-Hold could ever work for a single long-term investor. There isn’t. That’s why there is shock when I say it. People need to hear that message over and over and over again if they are to successfully ignore the constant promotion of the pure Get Rich Quick approach (Buy-and-Hold) by the Wall Street Con Men. The number of times a message is repeated affects how persuasive it is. We need to hear the anti-Buy-and-Hold message repeated as often as the pro-Buy-ad-Hold message is repeated. And we need to hear it being repeated by many different voices.
Todd Tresidder agrees with me on safe withdrawal rates. How often has he gone to the Bogleheads Forum to explain why he thinks the Old School SWR studies are dangerous for investors? He hasn’t done it, Pink. If he did it every day, and if hundreds of others did it everyday, no one would think twice when I warned people of the dangers of those studies. But Todd doesn’t want you Goons attacking his site. So he keeps it zipped; he makes his comments only at his own site. That’s why we are in an economic crisis today.
I don’t play that game, Pink. I love my country. I want to bring the economic crisis to an end. I want millions of middle-class investors to have access to accurate and honest reports of what the last 33 years of peer-reviewed research says.
Greaney said in his study that the ideal stock allocation is 74 percent stocks. The last 33 years of peer-reviewed research shows that 20 percent stocks is a far better choice for the long-term investor when stocks are priced as they have been for the past 18 years. Not everyone at the Bogleheads Forum says exactly what Greaney says. Some say that 90 percent stocks is better. Some say that 60 percent stocks is better. Some even say that 50 percent stocks is better. How many say that 20 percent stocks is better? Very, very few. And those who do tend to say it once and then shut up while those arguing for 60 percent stocks or 70 percent stocks or 80 percent stocks say it over and over and over again.
Those posting research-based views have every bit as much right to express their views as those going with the pure Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick garbage. When threats of physical violence are used to intimidate those who believe in research-based strategies from posting their sincere views, the board becomes a corrupt enterprise. Many posters see that the range of opinion expressed at the board stretches from 50 percent stocks to 80 percent stocks. That makes them inclined to think that 65 percent stocks might be roughly right. If they knew that the only reason why there aren’t hundreds of posters making the case for the research-based allocation (20 percent or perhaps 30 percent stocks), those community members would have a very different belief as to how to go about investing their money.
You are personally responsible for the losses those people will be experiencing in coming days, Pink. This isn’t a case where you permitted the research-based views to be heard on the same terms as the pure Get Rich Quick views. You permitted ONLY Get Rich Quick views. And you didn’t warn people that that was your policy,. You stated in the published rules of the site that honest posting was PERMITTED. You committed financial fraud. So you are responsible for all losses suffered. And you are guilty of a felony under the laws of the United States.
I want no part of it. Going to prison is not high on my bucket list.
Not this boy.
I can’t go for that.
No can do.