Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
1. Soon After the Next Crash, A Number of People Will Say That Their Consciences Will Just Not Permit Them to Keep Quiet Any Longer.
2. Then There Will Be a Deluge of Truth-Telling.
3. Lots of People Will Be Hoping That By Coming Forward Early, They Will Be Able to Avoid Prison.
4. We Will See a Media Frenzy.
5. That Will Lead to Congressional Hearings.
Each one containing a prediction about the future.
Your track record with predictions is terrible.
You will most likely go 0 for 5 with this lot.
I said on the morning of May 13, 2002, that the numbers in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies were wildly wrong.
You Goons said that I must have forgotten to take my meds.
Ten years later, the Wall Street Journal published an article saying that the numbers in the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies were wildly wrong.
I think that my record on “predictions” is pretty darn good.
The reason why my record is so good is that the only things that I “predict” are things that have already happened. There was no prediction needed to see that Greaney’s retirement study did not contain an adjustment for the valuation level that applied on the day the retirement began.
The only reason why millions of others did not notice the lack of a valuation adjustment in the Old School retirement studies is that millions of others want to believe those numbers on the bottom of their retirement statements so badly that they lie to themselves about what the peer-reviewed research in this field tells us. That’s the entire story here, Evidence.
Us humans are prone to self-deception. Self-deception is what makes stock investing risky. We learned that intellectually in 1981. But we have permitted our emotions to dominate our intellects for 33 years now. Not because we are bad or stupid. Because we are humans. Humans have been known to do that sort of thing from time to time.
My job is to free the humans to enjoy their good fortune in happening to be the luckiest generation of investors who ever walked Planet Earth.
If my prediction track-record were so poor, you wouldn’t be here today, If you hadn’t noticed how many people were impressed with my work, you would have been long gone by no.
I had a big-shot financial advisor call me on the telephone yesterday and talk to me for over an hour about this stuff. I had the same thing happen with a different big-shot financial advisor last week. Both are changing their business models because of what they learned from this site and because of what they learned in their conversations with me. That sort of thing does not happen to people who have a track-record of always getting their predictions wrong.
You’re a liar, Evidence. You have the power and the wealth of the Wall Street Con Men backing you up. So you have been able to get away with your lies for a longer time than I would have thought possible. But I do not believe that you will get away with those lies indefinitely. I think that when the human misery that you are causing grows so great that people will feel that they have no choice but to work up the courage to stand up to the Wall Street Con Men, you will find yourself in a prison cell. At that time I will be able to turn to these words and reassure myself that I did everything in my power to help my friend.
Do what you want, you know?
You are scared or you wouldn’t be here. I know that. You know that. But you are a Goon and you are incapable of taking a constructive and positive and life-affirming step. You and I both know that too.
So it is what it is.
I don’t like it. But I accept it.
If you ever come to accept it, you will stop posting here. You will just wait to see how it plays out.
You are welcome to continue posting here. I will continue to delete a good number of your posts. But I don’t believe in this business of banning people. I believe that even the worst of you Goons can come up with good stuff on occasion and what I have seen here for 12 years now confirms that belief. So you are free to continue.
But I am not going to lie to you and say that I am persuaded that you are not afraid of going to prison. Not this boy.
You have my best and warmest wishes, in any event.