Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
“Except that it’s not one single person.”
There is only one person (you) that is saying that all these experts are wrong and that you are right. There is one else that is saying there have been death threats (other than the threat you made). There is no one else saying that the people you call goons (as well as a number of financial experts and other board owners) are going to prison. There is no one else but you that is saying a $500 million windfall is coming your way. I think you get the picture.
Of course, you will lie and say otherwise. There are zero facts to back you up.
The question remains…….do we believe in the grand conspiracy against you as well as your fantasy world, or is it more likely that you are living a lie and fantasy.
There are things that I say today that no one else says today.
But all of the things that I say follow from my belief in the importance of Shiller’s research findings and about 20 percent of the population agrees with me re that one (I am going by what I have seen on numerous discussion boards).
Most people who agree with Shiller hold back from exploring all the implications of his ideas publicly. That’s why Valuation-Informed Indexing has only won over 20 percent of the population in 34 years. I want it to win over 100 percent of the population. So I say things in the way in which they must be said for us to get to 100 percent.
The Buy-and-Holders don’t hold anything back. I like that about them. We all need them to make their case as strongly and as clearly as possible for us to be able to learn from them and be persuaded by them. I want to see the Valuation-Informed Indexers to be just as clear and just as firm and just as bold in their framing of their message. They are not helping us all out to the extent they could if they do otherwise.
There is a continuum of opinion on every subject. There are people at both extremes and there are people in the middle. There are a lot more people in the middle. There are usually few at the extremes. I am at the extreme of pro-Valuation-Informed-Indexing opinion. That much certainly is so. I am more pro-Valuation-Informed-Indexing than Shiller himself today.
But all of my views follow from Shiller’s findings and 20 percent of the population today agrees with the thrust of what I have to say. You bring up some procedural points. People don’t like that I say those things. That’s a stone cold fact. But I believe that it is important that people say those things. It is the procedural funny business employed by the Buy-and-Holders that has been holding us back for a long time now. The Buy-and-Holders are going to continue engaging in the funny business for so long as it works for them. And it will continue working for them until we all call them out on that stuff when we see it.
It is my belief that we should have a 100 percent consensus against continued employment of the funny business. That stuff is degrading to the Buy-and-Holders, it is really anti-human. We do not have a consensus against it today. I acknowledge the reality. But I believe strongly that we have hurt ourselves by not acting together to bring that stuff to a full and complete stop.
Outside of the nasty process stuff, I am still in a minority but I am in a minority of about 20 percent of the population. And the views held by that minority are backed by 34 years of peer-reviewed research and a Nobel prize.
Rob
Anonymous says
Even if there is a crash, no one will believe your story about buy and hold being the cause. In 2008/2009, it was blamed on the real estate bubble and bad debt bubble. During the past few weeks, we have seen a number of drops and we see it is blamed on China as well as the oil glut. Crashes/drops always get blamed on some kind of economic event. As such, nothing will ever change for you and there will not be any pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Sorry, but the $500 million you seek just isn’t going to happen.
Rob says
You are right about the history, Anonymous. I don’t say otherwise.
But I remain optimistic. Perhaps I will be proven wrong. I acknowledge that this could happen. I sure don’t want to see it happen. But I have been known to get them wrong from time to time. We’re just going to have to wait to see how it all plays out.
Is there any reason on your end why we cannot be friends while we wait it out together? That would certainly be my preference.
Rob
Anonymous says
Uh oh, looks like Michael Kitces slaps you down again Rob. Take a look at the comments section in which he says that there really isn’t much need to adjust the SWR of 4%. Also, if you really read through what he has to say, it seems to make a good case to just stick with buy and hold.
Happy reading:
https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equity-return-assumptions-in-retirement-projections-be-reduced-for-todays-high-shiller-cape-valuation/
Rob says
Wow.
That article is AMAZING. I would rank that article as one of the top five articles on SWRs that I have read over the course of the 13 years.
I posted a comment offering a few quick reactions. I will do something a bit more in depth as one of my columns at the Value Walk site.
Your comments about the article are of course completely out to lunch and 100 percent dishonest. Shame on you, Anonymous! Yucko!
Thanks a million for linking to the article here. You have linked to such articles on numerous occasions. I always express my gratitude when you do so and I want you to know that I am truly grateful for your efforts in this regard. You are a Goon. But there are times when you have been an exceedingly helpful Goon. This is one of them (despite the dishonesty you evidence in your commentary). This article is the type of thing we should have been seeing starting 13 years ago. If the experts in this field did not fear the reactions of the millions of investors who they have hurt so much with their smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage, we would have all worked together to launch a national debate re this stuff many years ago and we would today be enjoying the biggest surge of economic growth in our nation’s history rather than trying to sludge though an economic crisis! Holy moly!
Learning about this cheered my day in a major way. I get down about this stuff sometimes. I try not to let it show because I don’t want to appear weak in front of you Goons. But I am made of flesh and bone like everybody else and sometimes things get to me. This sort of thing reveals a hint of the fun we will all be having together when we make it to the other side of The Big Black Mountain. We’re getting close.
I have a theory about what is going to happen following the next price crash that I don’t often talk about. I believe (this is just speculation, however) that Shiller may have already written a sequel to Irrational Exuberance in which he explores in depth the IMPLICATIONS of his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings of 1981 that he has so far not commented on because of his fear re what the Buy-and-Holders will do to him when he explores the implications openly and clearly and firmly. Going by that sort of thinking, it could be that Michael has been sitting on this article for some time, waiting for the time when it looked like the crash was getting close to go public with it. Again, that’s just speculation. But it would be very cool if it turns out that the greatest minds in this field are sitting on a wealth of wonderful material that they will all be releasing once it appears safe for them to do so.
Super stuff! Encouraging stuff!
Forward! More!
Please take good care, my old Goon friend.
Rob
Laugh says
Whoops.
“On the other hand, the data also reveals that in the ultra long term (e.g., 20+ years), market valuation actually becomes less predictive of equity returns. In other words, while market valuation is predictive for long(er) term market returns, eventually so much time has passed – and so much has changed – that the starting valuation is just no longer predictive of how markets grow and compound 20-30 years later. In fact, valuation is even less predictive of 30-year returns than it is in predicting 12-month returns!”
Rob says
John Walter Russell posted research showing that at the Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group about 10 years ago, Laugh.
I have copies of every thread that appeared at that board.
They all will be coming out when the entire internet is opened to honest posting on the peer-reviewed research of the past 34 years.
This is exactly what you would expect to see if Shiller is right and Bogle is wrong. These sorts of results are logical impossibilities in a world where the market is efficient. The only way we could have such results is if it is investor emotion that determines stock prices, as Shiller proved in his “revolutionary” (his word) research of 1981. This makes perfect sense if it is investor emotion that determines stock prices. Prices go up for roughly 20 years running because investors like how it feels to vote themselves raises. Then prices get so insanely high that investors freak out and send prices to levels as insanely low as they once were insanely high.
That’s how it works. That’s how it has always worked. For 145 years. No exceptions. Not one.
If you Goons hadn’t committed multiple felonies, we would not be in an economic crisis today. You are personally responsible for destroying the financial futures of millions of middle-class Americans.
Those are the people who will be serving on your jury.
We’ll find out together how it all plays out following the next price crash.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Rob
Rob says
There are Post Archives.
Rob