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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“Part of the Job is to Describe the Pressures that Caused so Many Generally Good and Smart People Either to Participate in the Cover-Up or at the Minimum Tolerate It. I Post These Goon Conversation Blog Entries to Help People Come to a Full Understanding of What Happened.”

January 22, 2016 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:

Your inability to tame your self-love of hearing/seeing your own words, and instead create a PROPER brief descriptive ‘headline’ or “title” for an article speaks volumes about your mental incapacity, Rob. It’s just one tiny thing, but like a tell-tale tassel in the wind for a sailor, it is enormously informative for those paying attention.

It’s not self-love, Anonymous.

Yes, the headlines are long in the items that items that I post to the blog under the category of “Goon Conversations.”

The reason why they are long is that they explore micro-issues. In ordinary circumstances, there might be an item that would have a headline of “Old-School Retirement Studies Fail to Include Valuation Adjustments.” That’s shocking. All you need are those few words to convey a shocking truth that every investor on the planet needs to know about. So, in that ordinary sort of case, all that you need is a headline of short length to convey the information that needs to be conveyed.

Those are not the circumstances that apply in the investing realm today. I have posted articles at a good number of sites containing short headlines conveying that message. Those articles should have been picked up by every investing site on the internet. They should have been featured on the front page of the next day’s New York Times.

It didn’t happen.

If it had happened in the way that it should happen if things were proceeding as normal, there would be no need for these blog entries that report on our Goon Conversations and that contain such long headlines. The circumstances that apply here are not in the slightest way normal. We are dealing with a very strange phenomenon, a massive case of cognitive dissonance that has affected pretty much all of us (including Rob Bennett up until the evening of August 27, 2002).

What has happened here is that as a society we got off track in our quest to come to understand how stock investing works in the real world. The Buy-and-Holders did amazing work building the foundation of a model to help us all out. The Buy-and-Hold Pioneers are heroes to the middle-class. They got one thing wrong. They didn’t understand the effect of valuations at the time they were building their model. Shiller added that missing piece in 1981. But by that time the Buy-and-Holders had been describing their mistaken view of how things work for 16 years and had a hard time accepting that they had gotten such a critical piece of the puzzle wrong. So they went into cover-up mode. The bull market caused people to be happy with Buy-and-Hold and so there was little motivation to develop a new model until the economic crisis that began in 2008 scared people. And then the Federal Reserve stepped in and pumped up stock prices again so that even today there is limited interest in finding out what truly works.

It’s not just that people like to believe that the Pretend Gains created by high stock prices are real. It’s that the people who work in this field have been telling the false story of how things work that they feel that they will be sued or perhaps even imprisoned if they come clean now. And the investors whose lives have been destroyed become angry when they hear how they have been tricked for so long. That makes it even harder for the “experts” to come clean. So we are living in a time when deception and intimidation have become commonplace in the investing advice world.

It is my job to tell that story.

Part of the job is to expose the corruption that had permitted this massive cover-up to remain in place for so long. Part of the job is to describe the pressures that caused so many generally good and smart people either to participate in the cover-up or at the minimum tolerate it. I post these Goon Conversation blog entries to help people come to a full understanding of what happened. We need to understand the Goon mind, which is really just a cartoon version of the Get Rich Quick mindset that we all carry within us. It is by coming to an understanding of what happened that we will come to peace with what has happened. These Goon Conversation blog entries are going to help me get your prison sentence reduced a bit, Anonymous. This is important work.

But there are now so many of these Goon Conversation blog entries in the Post Archives that the new ones deal with extreme micro-issues. All of the basic, general stuff was addressed years ago. I don’t want to hold back on posting these items because as a society we very much need to come to a full understanding of what drives you Goons and no one else is doing this kind of work. So I have to post the items. But it is not possible to sum up in a few words the points made in the items that are going up today, which are examining minute details of the story rather than addressing general matters which could more easily be summed up with a small number of words.

So the headlines are a lot longer than those you see at other sites.

As the idea of looking at investor emotion becomes more commonplace, people’s understanding of what is going on will become sharper and fuller and it will become possible to get by with shorter headlines. We are not there today. These are the pioneer days. This is the future of investing analysis. But we are very much in the early days of coming to an understanding of what it means to use peer-reviewed research (ALL of the peer-reviewed research, including that published in the past 34 years) to guide one’s investing strategies.

That’s my sincere take re this matter, in any event.

I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, my long-time Goon pal.

Rob

Filed Under: Lindauer/Greaney Goons

Comments

  1. Anonymous says

    January 22, 2016 at 8:21 pm

    The “goon phenomenon ” had to start somewhere and with someone. Who was the person that as the first goon and triggered this mass conspiracy?

  2. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 3:30 am

    We didn’t know how stock investing worked until 1981, Anonymous. We had some important pieces of the puzzle even before the Buy-and-Holders came along in the 1960s. And of course the Buy-and-Holders supplied many important pieces, adding to our knowledge. But humankind was missing a critically important piece of the puzzle until 1981, when Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings showing that valuations affect long-term returns (the far-reaching implication being that investors must be wiling to change their stock allocations in response to dramatic valuation shifts to have any hope whatsoever of keeping their risk profiles roughly constant).

    Had Bogle responded to the publication of Shiller’s research by going to the front of a big room and saying the words “I” and “Was” and “Wrong,” we would be living in a very different world today. We wouldn’t be trying to endure an economic crisis. We would be enjoying the biggest surge of economic growth in our history. Bogle didn’t do that. Bogle ignored Shiller. He continued to promote the same Buy-and-Hold strategy that he had been promoting before Shiller published his revolutionary research findings.

    I don’t believe that that was fraud. I wasn’t around in those days. So I need to be a tiny bit tentative about statements that I make that relate to those days. But all the evidence that I have seen indicates that that was cognitive dissonance, not fraud. Bogle believed in Buy-and-Hold. He was excited about it. He thought it was the answer. He thought it helped people. When people love something and they see evidence that it is not in reality what they once thought it was,their minds shut down. This happens all the time. It is a well-documented phenomenon discussed in great depth in the psychological literature.

    We experienced a huge bull market following the publication of Shiller’s research. As prices climbed higher and higher, it became harder and harder for the Buy-and-Holders to acknowledge their mistake. If what Shiller had proven to be so really was so, Buy-and-Hold was the most dangerous investing strategy ever concocted by the human mind and, the higher prices went, the more human misery Buy-and-Hold caused. As the dangers grew larger and larger, the psychological resistance to permitting people in this field to do honest work grew greater and greater.

    It became fraud when someone threatened to destroy someone’s career if they told the truth about what the post-1981 research says. I didn’t show up on the scene until the morning of May 13, 2002. The first act of fraud obviously took place long before that date. But I cannot tell you when the first act of fraud took place. It might be that Shiller could tell. I wouldn’t be surprised if following the next price crash Shiller publishes a sequel to Irrational Exuberance reporting on the acts of fraud that were employed by Buy-and-Holders to block him and other economists and researchers from telling the truth about how stock investing works for many years. Shiller and others who knew about his research and believed in it could tell you more about pre-2002 acts of financial fraud than I can.

    That brings us up to May 2002. You know what happened from that date forward.

    The massive act of financial fraud has gone on so long that we now are in a situation where it is career death for anyone in this field to tell the truth about what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research teaches about how stock investing works in the real world. That needs to change if we are going to bring this economic crisis to an end. We all need to be insisting on our right and the right of every other citizen of this country to tell the truth about his or her beliefs about how stock investing works.

    There is no other way out. That’s the law. And our laws against financial fraud are reflected in the published posting rules of every investing discussion board and blog on the internet. We need to enforce our laws making financial fraud a felony to be punished by prison time. Once we see enforcement of the laws that govern in this area, no one will be afraid to speak honestly on safe withdrawal rates or on any other critically important investment-related topic and we will all begin reaping the many benefits of being the luckiest generation of investors ever to walk Planet Earth (the first generation to have access to 34 years of peer-reviewed research showing that the stock market works just like every other market that has ever existed — that price discipline is what makes the stock market work and that whenever investors are persuaded not to exercise price discipline, the market collapses and millions of humans endure great suffering).

    The shorter answer to your question is that the first Goon was the first human. We all have a Get Rich Quick urge residing within us. I do. I once was a proud Buy-and-Holder. We all are flawed creatures. The breakthrough was Bogle’s idea that we should use the peer-reviewed research as out guide re how to invest. He was right the first time. He should have stuck with that wonderful idea. My view is that Valuation-Informed Indexing is just an extension of Buy-and-Hold. It is Valuation-Informed Indexing, not Buy-and-Hold, that is consistent with Bogles core principle that we should use the peer-reviewed research as a guide to how to invest.

    The beauty of using research as a guide is that research is objective. The danger of using your own human impressions as to how things work without considering what the research says is that human impressions are SUBJECTIVE. The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau shows that it is the subjective (but much loved by humans!) idea that the stock market is the only market that ever existed in which price discipline is not 100 percent essential that is responsible for 70 percent of the risk of stock investing. Permit honest posting on the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research in this field and stocks are no longer any more risky than Certificates of Deposit.

    But there is now an entire industry that has been built up around the idea that there might be some magical, mystical world in which Buy-and-Hold might somehow work for one or two long-term investors. The people who have made fortunes in this industry will fight bitterly against efforts to expose their massive act of financial fraud.

    The other side of the story is that most of these people (perhaps ALL of these people) are good people and smart people and hard-working people. They long to do good, clean work once again. As the human misery that they have caused grows larger and larger, there will come a point at which some of them will work up the courage to speak out. Then the whole house of cards comes tumbling down and prison sentences are announced for you Goons. Then it is over. No one wants to go to prison. Once people see the laws being enforced, Buy-and-Hold is history and we all enjoy a second Independence Day.

    I hope that helps a bit, my long-time Goon friend.

    Please take good care.

    Rob

  3. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 7:51 am

    So, “Adam”. Got it.

  4. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 9:00 am

    Yes, the Get Rich Quick urge is part of human nature.

    The question on the table is whether it is the job of an investment advisor to exploit the GRQ urge to the fullest extent possible (Buy-and-Hold) and thereby take millions of dollars out of the pockets of the people who earned them and and put them into his own already overflowing pockets or to shoot straight with his clients and readers by reporting accurately and honesty what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research says about the chances of the pure GRQ/Buy-and-Hold approach ever working for even a single long-term investor either in this solar system or in any other.

    As you know, I favor honesty and accuracy when it comes to reporting the numbers that millions of people use to plan their retirements.

    I believe that this is the future of investing analysis. It’s not just the GRQ urge that is inherent in human nature. A desire for personal integrity is also part of human nature. I believe that our desire to possess personal integrity is going to prevail after we see the full extent of the human misery caused by the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage following the next price crash.

    But we will have to be patient and let things play out before we can say for absolute certain.

    I hope that helps a bit, Anonymous.

    I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.

    Rob

  5. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 9:16 am

    well then, if everyone is a goon, we can send everyone to prison, nor can we treat anyone different.

  6. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 9:19 am

    The job of an investing expert is to help us all overcome our goonishness, Anonymous.

    We should be trying to minimize risk, not push it to its highest limit.

    My take.

    Rob

  7. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 9:20 am

    And it is the members of your jury who will determine the length of your prison sentence. That one is not my call.

    My best wishes.

    Rob

  8. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 9:37 am

    Who is an expert vs an amateur expressing an opinion?

  9. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 9:44 am

    Death threats and threats of career destruction are not opinions, Anonymous.

    Death threats and threats of career destruction are acts of intimidation.

    Death threats and threats of career destruction employed to keep millions of middle-class Americans from learning what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research says about how stock investing works in the real world constitute financial fraud, a felony under the laws of the United States.

    That means prison time.

    My best wishes, my soon-to-be-prison-dwelling friend.

    Rob

  10. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 11:33 am

    If these so called “goons” didn’t exist, how would that have changed things for you?

  11. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 12:23 pm

    ” whether it is the job of an investment advisor to exploit the GRQ urge to the fullest extent possible (Buy-and-Hold) and thereby take millions of dollars out of the pockets of the people who earned them.”

    1) B&H is the opposite of GRQ, regardless of whether it is or is not an actually viable investment strategy( it is.)

    2) B&H is the way to assure you get the LEAST income stream as an advisor, whether it works or not (it does.)

    It is roughly analogous to being a fitness author who merely says: “Eat less, exercise more.” That is the very best fitness advice in the universe, and the only “sure thing” in that field, as well. Yet you’d go broke if that was your entire ‘schtick’. Well, B&H is the best general purpose investment strategy esp for future retirees, but an advisor who espouses it doesn’t have much to do or to earn. So where do those millions come from, Rob? Your logic is non-existent on this point, as well as most others.

  12. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    How much money have you lost due to the goons?

  13. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    If these so called “goons” didn’t exist, how would that have changed things for you?

    If the Goons didn’t exist, the errors in Greaney’s retirement study would have been corrected by the morning of May 14, 2002.

    The board community would have worked together to get ALL the Old School safe-withdrawal-rate studies corrected within a short amount of time.

    We would have seen a 10-part series showing the superiority of Valuation-Informed Indexing over Buy-and-Hold published on the front page of the New York Times many years ago.

    We wouldn’t be in an economic crisis today.

    It would have changed things for the better for every citizen of the United States.

    But you of course know all this, Anonymous.

    I wonder why you pretend otherwise.

    Rob

  14. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 1:50 pm

    How much money have you lost due to the goons?

    It’s got to be a number well in excess of the $500 million that I have agreed to consider as a settlement of my legal claims. Otherwise, that wouldn’t be much of a settlement offer.

    No?

    Rob

  15. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 1:54 pm

    It is roughly analogous to being a fitness author who merely says: “Eat less, exercise more.”

    Except in this case the fitness instructor says: “Eat more, exercise less.”

    There is now 34 years of peer-reviewed research showing that exercising price discipline is 80 percent of the investing project. Exercise price discipline and it is impossible to imagine how you could ever do poorly in the long run. Fail to exercise price discipline and it is impossible to imagine how you could ever do well in the long run.

    So what do the Buy-and-Holders say? “Hey, there might be an alternate universe where it might work out not to always practice price discipline. You never can say for sure.!”

    If the Buy-and-Holders truly believe that there is an alternate universe where everything works the opposite of how it has always worked here on good old Planet Earth, why have they not constructed rocket ships to take us all to that alternate universe?

    Where are the rocket ships, Anonymous? That’s what I want to know.

    Rob

  16. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    What legal claims? How did you come to $500 million?

  17. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    It’s a settlement offer, Anonymous.

    I am willing to agree to a settlement because it permits us to put the ugly stuff behind us and to work together on bringing the Buy-and-Hold Crisis to an end.

    Do you have some kind of problem with the idea of bringing the ugly stuff to an end?

    If you do, then don’t accept the settlement, you know? No one is required to agree to a settlement. It is an option.

    We can go to court. That works.

    I like the idea of bringing the ugly stuff to an end. Call me madcap.

    Rob

  18. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 2:33 pm

    By the way, I have indicated an intent to use 5 percent of the settlement to finance blogs that would permit honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics.

    And to use another 5 percent to promote this site so that everyone in the nation knows about the 34 years of peer-reviewed research showing the dangers of the Buy-and-Hold strategy.

    That’s called “giving back.”

    My guess is that you Goons hate that idea too.

    Surprise! Surprise!

    Rob

  19. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    5% of nothing is still nothing.

  20. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 2:40 pm

    I’d take nothing over prison 500 times over if it came to that, Anonymous.

    We’ll see how it plays out.

    Rob

  21. Rob says

    January 23, 2016 at 3:20 pm

    B&H is the way to assure you get the LEAST income stream as an advisor, whether it works or not

    The Wall Street Con Men are altruists. Pretty much everyone who works in this field is doing it out of a sense of charity.

    That’s why the Con Men are so wiling to immediately correct mistakes when they are brought to their attention. No defensiveness. No arguing. No exceptions.

    Makes sense!

    Rob

  22. Anonymous says

    January 23, 2016 at 8:48 pm

    “The Wall Street Con Men are altruists”

    Your smarmy response proves you have no case to make. The question still holds: Why would a dishonest adviser tout B&H, when ANY other strategy would result in more dollars for THEM? Your claim that people make millions advocating B&H is ludicrous on it’s face, and you’ve provided nothing to prove otherwise. You are a very dishonest person.

  23. Rob says

    January 24, 2016 at 3:36 am

    The Buy-and-Holders are not dishonest people by nature, Anonymous. They are good people. They are trying to help their clients and readers. They believe that Buy-and-Hold works. They follow it themselves.

    And it’s not true that pushing other strategies would make more money for them. Buy-and-Hold is hugely popular. Millions of middle-class investors want a strategy that is supported by the peer-reviewed research. Buy-and-Hold is not supported by the peer-reviewed research today but there was a time when just about everybody thought that it was. And people still claim that it is. That’s why it is popular. That’s what people want. The false claim that Buy-and-Hold is supported by peer-reviewed research is a huge marketing plus. It is a huge money maker.

    The claims made by Buy-and-Holders are dishonest. Just as it would be dishonest to say today that the earth is flat. There was a time when lots of good and smart people thought that the earth was flat. It wasn’t dishonest to make that claim in those days. But it sure is a dishonest claim today. Prior to 1981, Buy-and-Hold was state-of-the-art stuff. It is not state-of-the-art stuff today. Today it is financial fraud for someone who purports to be an “expert” to push Buy-and-Hold. Buy-and-Hiold was discredited by the peer-reviewed research 34 years ago. Experts are required to keep up with the peer-reviewed research. There is no excuse for falling 34 years behind. None.

    We are as a society working through a process by which we transition from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing. The sooner we complete that transition, the better for every single human being involved. My job is to see that that transition is completed as quickly as possible. Every post that I write is written with that aim in mind.

    I don’t want to be intimidated into posting stuff that I don’t believe. And I don’t want anyone else to be intimidated into posting stuff that he or she does not believe. I learn more from other posters when they post honestly. So I want everyone to feel free to post honestly.

    We permit honest posting in every other field of human endeavor. We need to return to permitting it in the investing advice field too. To permit honest posting again would be a win/win/win/win/win. It is not even possible for the rational human mind to imagine any possible downside. Honest posting is great stuff. Not just for Valuation-Informed Indexers. Honest posting is great stuff for Buy-and-Holders too.

    There’s plenty of money to be made by all of us in a world in which honest posting is permitted at every discussion board and blog on the internet. And in this crazy new world that I envision, none of us need to worry about going to prison when the lies that we tell to cover up mistakes we made years ago catch up to us.

    This new world that I envision sounds like a pretty darn cool world, no? It’s a world in which the laws of the United States apply on the investing advice field just as they do in all other fields of human endeavor and a world in which the published rules of every discussion board and blog are enforced in a reasonable manner to protect us all from the Goon posters who absent such enforcement destroy our posting communities.

    I love our posting communities. I don’t want to see them destroyed.

    I love my country. I don’t want to see it destroyed.

    I love my Buy-and-Hold friends. I don’t want to see any of them spending one day more in prison than whatever number of days of prison time is already baked into the cake for them given events that have already taken place that I obviously am not able to change without access to a time machine.

    That’s the deal. That’s where things stand. That’s the story here.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  24. Anonymous says

    January 24, 2016 at 8:23 am

    So, if we take your comments from here as well as previous comments, here is an overview of what should have happened over the past couple decades if you were never banned from the various financial boards:

    1. You would have been one of most popular posters (if not the most popular poster) on all the financial boards.
    2. You would become one of the most sought after financial experts quoted by much of the press and would even have generated many front page articles on the New York Times (as well as various multi-series publications).
    3. You would have been a headlining speaker at most major financial investing forums and other speaking events.
    4. You would have been highly published in various peer-reviewed financial publications.
    5. You would have possibly been considered for a Nobel prize.
    6. Most people following the investment community would now be following VII, which would then lead to the healing of our economy and would then bring on the biggest economic growth we have ever seen in US history.
    7. You would have become one of the most wealthy individuals in the US, resulting from speaking fees, book fees, investment advisory fees, etc.
    8. You would be working together on a daily basis with Jack Bogle, Wade Pfau, Robert Shiller and a host of other financial experts, with you taking the leading role.

    Did I miss anything?

  25. Rob says

    January 24, 2016 at 9:01 am

    You missed lots of things:

    1) Bogle would be viewed as 20 times the expert that he is perceived to be today because his ideas would actually work in the real world — which is what he intended in the first place.

    2) The internet would be a far more powerful communications medium because people who have important things to say about the subjects addressed at the various boards and blogs would feel free to post honestly and Goons like you would be banned when they violated the posting rules.

    3) I would be getting feedback from all of the experts in this field and I would be able to use that feedback to sharpen my thoughts and my writings.

    4) All of the experts would be getting feedback from me and from other Valuation-Informed Indexers and they too would be able to use the feedback to sharpen their thoughts and writings.

    5) You Goons would not be headed to prison.

    6) We wouldn’t be seeing the political unrest that we have seen in recent years on both the left and the right because our free market economic system would be delivering on its promises.

    7) Support for our free market economic system would be growing because people would see that we have solved the problem of the boom/bust cycle.

    8) The Retire Early Movement would be surging forward because we all would be spreading the word about the peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau showing us all how to retire five to ten years sooner while dramatically reducing the risk associated with stock investing.

    I can live with all that, Anonymous.

    You can’t. Because you were taken. And because it hurts so much to be taken re a matter so important to your future that you cannot bear to acknowledge the obvious reality.

    I am sympathetic. I know you are hurting.

    But I am also sympathetic to the situations of the millions of middle-class people who ALSO have been taken in by this massive act of financial fraud. Lots of those people want to turn their financial situations in a more positive direction before it is too late to make changes (after the next price crash hits, most of their life savings will be gone and the Pretend Money is never going to return to them).

    Those people have rights. I want to see their rights recognized. I want to see the laws against financial fraud enforced. I want to see you Goons placed in prison cells, where you belong.

    I hope that all of that makes good sense to you.

    It’s not personal. I do care for you Goons.

    But I love my country too. And I want to see us all pulling together to bring this Buy-and-Hold Crisis to a full and complete stop by the close of business today. That’s the bottom line here.

    I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, my long-time Goon friend.

    Rob

  26. Anonymous says

    January 24, 2016 at 9:38 am

    So that list shows what SHOULD have happened. But we know what HAS happened. The scoreboard is showing a massive, epic blowout. If you took the field today against the Patriots, all by yourself, the final score would be closer than your competition with the Goons. And yet, you see nothing wrong with your game plan.

  27. Rob says

    January 24, 2016 at 11:11 am

    So that list shows what SHOULD have happened. But we know what HAS happened. The scoreboard is showing a massive, epic blowout. If you took the field today against the Patriots, all by yourself, the final score would be closer than your competition with the Goons. And yet, you see nothing wrong with your game plan.

    I am not happy with the results that we have seen thus far.

    But there’s nothing that I can do about it.

    I care about the people who read my stuff. I am incapable of lying to them.

    It’s possible that I could get things wrong. Even that scares me. I hate the thought that I might get something wrong and someone might go by what I said in error and hurt himself or herself by doing so. But at least in that case I didn’t intentionally do anything wrong. If I flat out lie, it’s intentional. I cannot live with that on my conscience.

    So I have never had any other options than the ones that I have chosen.

    I don’t like the results that we have seen. But, given that I have never had any other options, I have concluded that the best thing to do is just to live with what has happened. I could cry. Do you think that would help? I guess that there have been one or two occasions on which I have been tempted to have a cry. But I concluded that it would do no good. So I didn’t go there.

    That’s it.

    I have played the cards that I have been dealt to the best of my ability. Yes, I have scars all over my body from the hits that you Goons have delivered to me. I don’t say otherwise. But what of it? I don’t control the world. I am not Superman.

    We have to accept the things that we cannot change, Anonymous. So that’s what I try to do. I try to make the best of the difficult circumstances that apply here.

    I speak out against you Goons. Frequently. Forcefully. I do that much.

    That’s about all that I can do, given the circumstances that apply. So that’s what I do.

    I hope that all that makes good sense to you.

    My best wishes.

    Rob

  28. Anonymous says

    January 24, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    You have posted everything you have wanted to say before you were banned. You have said anything new since that time. What makes you think that if there were no bans and you kept repeating things for 13 years that the results would be any different?

  29. Rob says

    January 24, 2016 at 12:44 pm

    My posts received insanely positive reactions starting from the first day, Anonymous.

    Not from the majority of posters, obviously. But from about 20 percent of the board community. This was true at every place at which I posted. So it is clear that there is significant minority of investors who very much want to learn about Valuation-Informed Indexing.

    The Buy-and-Holders hate my stuff with a burning hate. But that won’t be a biggie once we see enforcement of the laws against financial fraud. The Buy-and-Holders are obviously free not to participate on threads at which Valuation-Informed Indexing is discussed. Or they can of course participate in accordance with the published posting rules of all the boards and blogs (this is my preference). The only thing that has ever caused a problem is you Goons. Once your prison sentences are announced, you won’t be a factor anymore. No one is going to want to be associated with you once your prison sentences have been announced.

    So the key is enforcement of the law. The laws against financial fraud are very much needed. But they don’t enforce themselves. We need kind and brave people to step forward and demand enforcement of these laws. As people see the human wreckage caused by our tolerance as a society of the promotion of Buy-and-Hold strategies, I am confident that we will see more and more people demanding reasonable enforcement of the law. Then all of the problems that we have experienced during the first 13 years of our discussions can be solved in a very short amount of time.

    First we need to see the price crash. That will cause people to lose confidence in the pure Get RIch Quick approach (Buy-and-Hold). Then we need to pull together as a society and demand enforcement of the laws against financial fraud. From that point forward, things just get better and better and better.

    It’s not like there is some downside to permitting honest posting. It’s all upside for every single person involved. I think it would be fair to say that we are looking at an insanely powerful value proposition — huge upside, zero downside. It doesn’t get any better than that.

    It’s a process, Anonymous.

    There is no real “controversy” here. We are all on the same side. We all want the same things.

    And we are already on the one-yard line. We are already close.

    We need one last push to get over the goal line. I am confident that the next price crash will give us the little push we need to avoid falling into the Second Great Depression. I don’t believe that even you Goons want to see us fall into the Second Great Depression.

    We’ll see how it goes.

    I remain optimistic.

    Perhaps that’s just my nature.

    Rob

  30. Anonymous says

    January 24, 2016 at 1:19 pm

    You do realize that these questions are asked just to get a laugh at your response.

  31. Rob says

    January 24, 2016 at 4:45 pm

    No, I don’t, Anonymous.

    I realize that you are Goons. And that that is the way that Goons portray their actions.

    But I also realize that you are frightened Goons, that you understand that you have broken laws and that you may well be going to prison following the next price crash.

    I don’t think that you will come clean. I acknowledge that much.

    But I believe that the responsible and charitable thing to do on my end is to make the offer to help you out regardless of what b.s. you put forward re your motives for posting here.

    I will continue to do what’s right from my end regardless of what b.s. you advance. The stuff coming from you is on you, not me. I do not control what you put forward.

    You have a friend here.

    But there are lines that that friend will not cross. No felonies. That’s out. That’s so far out that I could not possibly exaggerate how far out it is.

    So long as I let you know that, I have done my part. The rest is out of my hands.

    I naturally wish you the best of luck in all of your future life endeavors, Goon friend.

    Rob

What’s Here

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Rob on the Internet

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  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

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  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

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  • Favorite RobCasts

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    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

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    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

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    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

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