Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted in the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
And here are more of your comments on how you will get your quick fix (taken from your website):
“Gee, I hope I don’t go broke with all the offers to pay millions for this site that I will be receiving on a daily basis. And I hope I don’t get too tired handling the thousands of invitations to speak at conferences that will be coming my way. How will I be able to carry all the big bags of money? There is only so much that one man can endure!”
I am banned at 20 different sites. That’s not normal. There’s something extraordinary going on here. I didn’t know what I was getting into when I put up my famous post on the morning of May 13, 2002. Now I know. We’ve got a tiger by the tail. Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) finding of 1981 changed our understanding of how stock investing works in a fundamental and far-reaching way. This stuff is very important and very exciting and 100 percent positive.
Valuation-Informed Indexing is not popular today. Only about 20 percent of the population follows it ( I know this from my participation at hundreds of investing blogs and discussion boards, where I have been able to test reactions to the various ideas that follow from an exploration of the implications of Shiller’s research). Why isn’t it 100 percent given that VII reduces stock investing risk by 70 percent?
It’s not yet 100 percent because most people have not yet even heard about these ideas. I had one guy at a blog tell me that he had never heard Buy-and-Hold described as a “Get Rich Quick scheme” until I posted at that blog. Huh? Shiller showed that valuations affect long-term returns. Buy-and-Hold advocates tell people that there is no need for them to change their stock allocations in response to big shifts in valuations. And that’s not a Get Rich Quick scheme? Come again? If that’s not a Get Rich Quick scheme, what would a Get Rich Quick scheme look like?
The Buy-and-Holders obviously know that there is no way to square their strategy with the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research. The intellectual stuff here is not at all hard. But the emotional stuff is VERY hard. The Buy-and-Holders have their entire lives invested in this “idea.” They cannot BEAR to accept that they made a mistake. And so they are suffering from cognitive dissonance. And we are all suffering today as a result of the economic crisis that this massive case of cognitive dissonance brought about?
This can’t last, right? People don’t like the economic crisis. People want to know what the research says about how stock investing works. We’ve seen that at every board and blog to which I have posted. So this is all going to come out following the next price crash.
Do you not think that the pioneers — the people who take the lead in spreading the word about Valuation-Informed Indexing — are going to make tons of money as a result of doing so? I sure do. I’m not saying that to brag. I am trying to let other people realize what an OPPORTUNITY we all have before us today to do well for ourselves while doing huge good for others at the same time. That’s a pretty darn cool thing to be able to do, no?
Lots of people look at the abusiveness of you Goons and conclude that it’s better to keep quiet about the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research. I see it just the other way. I want to shout from the rooftops about this stuff. Why the heck not? That way I benefit personally while helping out millions of middle-class investors. Learning experiences are a win/win/win and this is the biggest learning experience that we have ever enjoyed in the personal finance field. There is no downside to getting the word out about what we have learned about stock investing over the last 34 years.
I expect to earn millions as a result of the 13 years of work effort that I have put into the project of developing and promoting the Shiller model, Sammy. I sure won’t apologize for doing so. I’ve earned that money and a lot more. Learning what it means to say “valuations affect long-term returns” is a liberating experience for all of us. Our system provides that the people who lead such “revolutions” profit handsomely from doing so. Good for our system! I love that about our system!
That’s where I’m coming from, in any event.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.