Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site:
No, Rob, your posts are abnormal.
The world changed in 1981, Anonymous.
Going by what we knew about stock investing in 1980, my posts are certainly abnormal. Shiller’s 1981 finding that valuations affect long-term returns is the OPPOSITE of Fama’s 1965 finding that the market is efficient (that is, properly priced). It is not possible that both of these men are right; one of them is right and one of them is wrong. It is very important to everyone living on these planet that we all work together to find out which one is right.
We can’t achieve that purpose by limiting our discussions to what we thought we knew to be the reality prior to 1981. We need to incorporate the new findings into EVERY conversation. And those giving voice to the new understanding of how the stock market works need to be treated with the same respect and affection as those giving voice to the earlier understanding. We all want the same things. We all should be friends.
That’s it.
I insist on my right to speak honestly because I believe that it is best for every person on the planet for that right to be respected. New ideas do not have the power to become more popular on their own. New ideas become popular as the result of efforts of those who come to believe in them to spread knowledge of them far and wide. I do not believe that the market is efficient. I believe that valuations affect long-term returns. Every post that I write reflects that belief.
That must always remain the case. And I must never apologize for posting my honest beliefs about how stock investing works in the real world. And I must insist that my willingness to participate in discussions in a constructive and positive and life-affirming manner be given the respect that is merited. We all must insist on that. It is a founding principle of the nation in which we live. Honest posting should not only be permitted, it should be ENCOURAGED.
That of course goes two ways. I have always shown respect and affection to my Buy-and-Hold friends and I have always acknowledged their huge contributions. If I am to remain true to myself, I must continue to do so. I must demand respect for the voicing of the new ideas and I must show respect for the voicing of the older ideas. That’s the balance that works. That’s the balance that our nation has always employed to bring such conflicts to a successful resolution. That’s the balance reflected in the laws of our nation, which permit people to hold differing viewpoints on how stock investing works but which do not permit abusive behavior that rises to the level of financial fraud employed to block millions from learning about new research that they very much need to know about.
I will continue to play it that way. I believe that things will work out well for all. I could be wrong. We will have to wait and see.
Honest posting is the norm in this country. In every field of life endeavor other than the investing advice field. The investing advice field needs to change in a dramatic way so that it is possible once again for people of integrity to make a living doing good work in this field. That is not optional. That is imperative. That is not a nice idea. That is the law.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event. Death threats are abnormal. Demands for unjustified board bannings are abnormal. Tens of thousands of acts of defamation are abnormal. Threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs are abnormal. Honest posting on the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research in this field is wonderful and beautiful and intelligent and kind and loving.
I love you. And I love all of other fellow community members. So I will continue to post my sincere thoughts. Whether you threaten to kill my wife and children as my “punishment” for doing so or not. The very fact that you would make such threats shows that there is a part of you that is desperate to hear honest words on this subject. You possess a Get Rich Quick urge, like all of the humans. But the non-Goon side of you is just as real; you possess common sense as well (also like all of the rest of us). It is the conflict between what you hear from your Get Rich Quick urge and what you hear from your common sense that causes you to feel such pain when you read my words. You need to see that conflict resolved if you are to find peace.
It is only by posting honest words that I can help you to resolve that conflict. That’s the job.
I pledge to you to do my best to do this important job. I will aim to be as honest as I can be up to the point at which I am becoming uncharitable while also being as charitable as I can be up to the point at which I am becoming dishonest. I will continue to struggle as I have for 13 years now to combine the two great virtues of charity and honesty in all of the work that I do in this field. I believe that there will come a day when you will be able to see why it was so important that I do that. That will be one glorious day in this history of this nation indeed.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Hang in there, old friend. It gets better.
I am sure.
Rob
Reality says
“We need to incorporate the new findings into EVERY conversation.”
That has been the core of your problem. Prior to getting kicked off the boards, you would fill up every thread with what you say are the “new findings” regardless of the topic or the opinions of others. People eventually grew tired of it.
“We all want the same things. ”
Uhm, no, I don’t think so. Again, it shows that you want to force your opinions on other people. You really don’t have any interest in a real conversation. Instead, you only want to people to agree with what you say as the “dear leader”.
“Whether you threaten to kill my wife and children as my “punishment” for doing so or not.”
You have repeated this line for many, many years, yet you don’t offer proof. Guess what. Someone made a REAL death threat against me approximately 10 years ago. Due to a work issue, I had to fire an employee. He did not take it well. I was attending a conference at a hotel in a major city. He was at the hotel (attending on behalf of another company). While meeting with other people, he walked up and told me that he “would get a gun and kill me”. I had actual proof of this threat and reported it to the authorities and that was it. I don’t use this story as a crutch like you do and I also have the ability to prove that it actually happened, unlike you do. My advice is to get your proof and report it, but stop using it like it makes you out to be a saint or is some kind of support for your position, because it isn’t.
Rob says
Prior to getting kicked off the boards, you would fill up every thread with what you say are the “new findings” regardless of the topic or the opinions of others.
My policy was to put up one post on each thread relating to the valuations topic. I didn’t “fill up” threads. I put forward one post.
There were times when people interested in the topic would ask questions. In those cases, I would respond to the questions. That’s a good thing. In most cases, there were also questions being directed to the Buy-and-Holders who posted on the thread, so the questions directed at me and my responses to them did not “fill up” the thread.
In a small number of cases, the issue being addressed on the Valuation-Informed Indexing side of things was of such widespread interest that the VII aspects of the question did indeed come to dominate the thread. But that was not at all common. And, when it did happen, it happened for the perfectly legitimate reason that interest in those questions was great. So, again, this was a good thing.
There were also times when you Goons would ask one serious question mixed in with lots of abusive garbage. My policy in those cases was to respond to the serious question while either ignoring the abusive garbage or asking those putting forward the abusive garbage to rein it in. Those threads did not get dominated by the abusive garbage because you Goons were unwilling to rein in your insanely abusive tendencies and because the site administrators were reluctant to take effective action. The problem there is that there is a lot of money to be made promoting Get Rich Quick strategies and Buy-and-Hold is the purest Get Rich Quick strategy ever concocted by the human mind. Once Valuation-Informed Indexing becomes dominant, this obviously will not be a problem anymore.
I would be happy not to post on valuation-related threads at all if only we had enough Valuation-Informed Indexers participating at every board and blog that my contributions were not needed. But it is important that there be at least one research-based post on every thread relating to an issue re which valuations plays a role. If people see a discussion and do not see any post coming from the VII perspective, they are misled into thinking that the Buy-and-Hold perspective is the only perspective that exists. That creates a dangerous situation. It is because millions of middle-class investors believe that Buy-and-Hold is rooted in something real that we are in an economic crisis today.
We can’t instantly make VII the dominant strategy. But we all need to work together to make sure that VII is represented at every board and at every blog and indeed at every discussion thread. It’s a bad idea to have me always being the person putting forward the VII perspective and I want to change this. The way to change it is to educate millions of people re what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research in this field says. Once we do that, we will have thousands of posters doing what I do today.
But of course the Buy-and-Holders HATE that idea. It’s not Rob Bennett that you Goons hate. It’s the peer-reviewed research of the past 34 years. You oppose ANYONE putting forward posts that are rooted in an understanding of the last 34 years of research. You didn’t just post abusively in threads in which I participated. You posted abusively in threads in which John Walter Russell participated. And you posted abusively in threads in which Wade Pfau participated (in the days when Wade was posting honestly). And you posted abusively in threads in which Microlepsis participated. And you posted abusively in threads in which John C. Craig participated. And on and on and on.
There never should have been a cover-up. Bogle should have come clean within a few weeks of the day in 1981 in which Shiller published his peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work for a single long-term investor either in this solar system or in some far distant one. The cover-up is contrary to everything our nation stands for. It had made Buy-and-Holders ashamed of themselves. And the greater the shame they feel, the more abusive they become when they see posts relating to the post-1981 peer-reviewed research.
I dd not create this dangerous situation, Reality. I have for 13 years played the lead role in trying to change it. Jack Bogle played the lead role in creating the dangerous situation. He is the lead Wall Street Con Men. Please take your beefs to him.
People eventually grew tired of it.
People LOVED the honest discussions we have re the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research. Thousands said so. I have articles at this site quoting many of the wonderful comments that were advanced saying so.
What people HATED was the insane abusiveness of you Goons. You need to be put in prison. That will end the nasty stuff and free the rest of us to learn what we very much need to know about what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research shows us. I am sure.
it shows that you want to force your opinions on other people.
I want every investor alive on this planet to be aware of both sides of the story before investing their hard-earned money to finance their retirements. I will make it happen. Count it.
Instead, you only want to people to agree with what you say as the “dear leader”.
Nothing could be further from the truth. I learn more from people who find weaknesses in my arguments that I learn from people who pat me on the back. I LOVE reasoned posts from my Buy-and-Hold friends.
I do NOT love death threats. Or demands for unjustified board bannings. Or tens of thousands of acts of defamation. Or threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Those sorts of posts get my Goon friends placed inside prison cells when they destroy the lives of millions of middle-class investors with their insane abusiveness. I HATE that smelly garbage. I OPPOSE the rationalizations engaged in by sites that tolerate such ugliness on the grounds that its an easy way to turn a buck to exploit the Get Rich Quick urge that resides within each of us. Not this boy. Find somebody else. No can do.
stop using it like it makes you out to be a saint or is some kind of support for your position, because it isn’t.
It absolutely shows the weakness of the case for Buy-and-Hold that you Goons employ death threats to block discussions of the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research in this field and that nationally recognized experts like Jack Bogle are too afraid of the emotional monster that they have created to do anything about the problem. I have NEVER seen a Valuation-Informed Indexer use a death threat to make his or her case. We use research because we have research that supports our case. The Buy-and-Holders often employ death threats and other insanely abusive tactics. I wonder why.
Buy-and-Hold is a con, Reality. That’s the core source of the friction. It’s a money-making thing. There has never been a sliver of support for this preposterous strategy anywhere in the peer-reviewed research. Wade Pfau checked that one very carefully. He was of course amazed by what he found. But the fact that your response was to destroy his career shows that his findings re this point were indeed backed by the data.
When the con has been exposed, we all will be freed to discuss the first true research-based strategy at every discussion board and blog on the internet. Good for us!
This is the biggest advance in the history of personal finance. I am proud to be the leader of the effort to open the entire internet to honest discussion of what the last 34 years of peer-reviewed research says.
I have a funny feeling that even Jack Bogle will applaud those of us who have fought so hard to open the internet to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and other critically important investment-related topics once we all make it together to the other side of The Big Black Mountain.
But we’ll see, you know? We are all going to need to be patient enough to see things play out before us as we respond collectively to the next price crash and witness the grave damage it does to our confidence in our economic and political systems.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, my old Goon friend.
Rob