Set forth below is the text of an e-mail sent to me on November 4, 2013, by Sam Parler, the co-developer of the Returns Sequence Reality Checker, following by my response to him:
I hope you are well and are having a good year. Hard to believe the holidays are nigh upon us.
I planted the seeds of your ideas at the discussion group of one of my investment newsletters [subscription, private unfortunately http://profitableinvesting.investorplace.com/forum ] a couple of months ago when the p/e10 hit 24-ish. At first I got a lot of dogmatic “timing cannot work” nonsense and was shouted down, but eventually, after I meekly posted links to your site, and to Wade Pfau’s studies, a few of the more thoughtful leaders at the forum came around from shouting me down to embracing the VII strategy. Now they have forgotten about me and my initial posts and are trying to take credit themselves. Kinda funny. One has posted additional links to passionsaving and another posted this link tonight:
For the most part, they are not being naive about this. They understand that the market could go another 20% or so higher, and that just because crashes have always occurred at this valuation level, it might not happen this time. For the first time, I am witnessing in a non-bear discussion group, the idea of pulling in the reins and lightening up on stock allocation.
Thought you would find this interesting; and hopefully, gratifying.
I find it VERY interesting and gratifying. Thanks much both for you efforts and for letting me know about them.
I don’t know about the traffic. I don’t think I check things carefully enough to know.
But that is not the important thing to me. The exciting news is that you are seeing people at a non-bear board respond to the message. I have seen similar signs. And the publication of that Market Watch article is also a sign.
Human psychology is strange. People often tell me that I am crazy to think that things are going to change in the future. Their argument is that they never have before. My strongly held view is that that misses the point. All that it shows is that, when views do change, they will change very hard and very fast.
The doubts are INSIDE people. It’s not that people don’t have doubts. It is that they deny them. But seeing others not deny them breaks down their denial. So the change comes hard and fast when it comes.
It’s shameful that they are trying to take credit themselves. But I have seen this sort of thing myself. So it doesn’t shock me.
I recently gave a talk to a financial bloggers conference (FinCon13) titled “How to Become the Most Hated Blogger on the Internet.” It focused on the emotional side of all this. People weren’t jumping up and down. But they were listening. It gave me a scary sort of feeling that people are starting to take the message a bit more seriously.
Please let me know of any further development along these lines.