Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Shiller showed that long-term timing ALWAYS works and is ALWAYS 100 percent required.”
Direct quote from Shiller: “It’s not a timing mechanism.”
Oh right, he was lying. Or intimidated. Or he doesn’t mean “long term” timing. Or he doesn’t understand his own research.
What do you think Shiller would say about someone who sold out twenty years ago, and has been waiting for a suitable re-entry point ever since?
a) “Gee, that’s swell! He really gets me!”
b) Some variant of “That’s not so swell.”
You are asking an intelligent question, Anonymous.
The obvious answer is — We should all want to ask him! We should all want to hear how Shiller responds to these questions.
I want to launch a national debate. When we have a national debate, people like Shiller will be answering all kinds of questions that they have not answered to date. That’s a 100 percent good thing. It’s by struggling with the sorts of questions that you have raised that societies advance in their knowledge of a subject matter.
Shiller has indeed said that P/E10 is not a timing mechanism. You are right about that. And I am right that Shiller has recommended various forms of timing on numerous occasions. He recommended long-term timing (the kind that I recommend) in the wake of the 2008 crash. He has recommended short-term timing ( which I do not believe works) in more recent comments. Shiller is all over the place re the timing question. Every investor alive should want to pin him down. We all need to know what he thinks.
Shiller is of course in good company re his mountain of self-contradictions. Bogle too talks out of both sides of his mouth re all sorts of investing questions. ALL THE TIME. We all should want to know what Bogle really thinks. We all should be trying to pin him down. We all should favor the launching of the national debate that will supply clear answers to all these legitimate and thus far unanswered questions. We all should be looking forward t enjoying the great learning experience that will follow the announcement of your prison sentence.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.