Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
As you are so fond of pointing out, there are post archives:
December 5, 2014 at 6:03 am
You’ve asked me what I will do if there is not another crash within the next two years. I have said that I will write a column saying that that tells me that there is something wrong with the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept and that I will continue studying the matter to try to figure out what really works best.”
You have a month to draft and polish that column. Of course, you won’t. Attempting to type “there is something wrong with VII” would cause your fingers to snap off.
No, that’s not so.
I have an article at this site titled something like “20 Reasons to Have Doubts About the VII Strategy.” There IS something wrong with VII. The biggest thing that is wrong with it is that we have not had enough people study it in depth to have confidence in it. We need to have lots of good and smart people doing their best to find holes in it. That’s how we learn. I believe strongly that VII is the future of investing analysis. But am obviously biased and extremely so. I have invested 14 years of my life in this. Anyone who goes just by what I say is a darn fool. We need to have lots of people looking at this and seeking to poke holes in it.
I am not going to have that column up by the end of this year. But I do have a column like that in my list of future columns. So it will probably come out in the early part of next year. My tentative title is “The Odds That We Will See Another Crash By the End of 2007 Are Now Less Than 50 Percent.” There’s only a small bit of time left in 2016. So I pretty much rule out the possibility that the prediction will be proven accurate. I now say that we should see the next crash “within the next year or two or three.” That takes us to late 2019. If you go ten years out from September 2008, you get to late 2018. I am adding an extra year to be extra careful that I do not flame out on yet another prediction. The odds are probably stronger in the first of the three years than in the last of the three years. So I think that it is probably so that the odds of seeing the crash in 2017 are a tiny bit less than 50 percent (even though 2017 is the most likely year of the three years).
Again, all of this DOES indeed show that, “there is something wrong with VII.” I am not disputing that. I am saying that VII is the best strategy that we can come up with given what we know from the research available to us today, nothing more and nothing less. We need to continue to advance in our understanding of these maters. We do that by talking things over, by exploring new ideas and confirming or refuting earlier ones and by performing new research. That’s just the standard way by which humankind advances in its understanding of things over time. We need to follow the standard procedures that apply in all other fields of human endeavor to the stock investing field as well.
That’s my sincere take in any event, X. I naturally wish you all good things.