Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
But if you don’t have the financial education and you haven’t built a substantial net worth from your investment strategy, how do you feel you would have credibility?
1) Common sense. Price discipline is required in every other market that exists. The idea that it wouldn’t be required in the stock market is on-its-face absurd.
2) The peer-reviewed research shows that what common sense says must be true has in fact always been true, for 145 years running.
3) The behavior of the Buy-and-Holders since the morning of May 13, 2002, when I pointed out that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies lack an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. People don’t behave this way when they believe that there is research supporting what they are saying. People behave this way when they believe or at least suspect that they are working on behalf of a con.
4) The writings of the experts in this field. Many of the top-name experts in this field have made statements showing that they believe that valuations affect long-term returns. Most of these people advocate Buy-and-Hold strategies. So it is not in their self-interest to make such admissions. The fact that they feel compelled to do so shows that they are aware that the evidence here is compelling.