I’ve posted Entry #335 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called There Would Be Great Benefits to Valuation-Informed Indexing Even If Market Timing Did Not Work.
Juicy Excerpt: Buy-and-Holders are working a sleight of hand. People look at the low rates of return provided by Treasuries and they conclude that market timing is not an appealing idea. There are ways around the problems stressed by the Buy-and-Holders but most investors are sufficiently impressed by the low returns provided by Treasuries to remain cool to the market timing concept. But that’s not really the issue in dispute. The important question is — Is overvaluation real? If overvaluation is real, investors cannot even know where they stand financially without considering the effects of valuations, something that Buy-and-Holders warn them that they must never, never do because to do so would be to engage in the same sort of thought crime that causes others to try market timing.