Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
You have posted everything you have had to say, thousands of times. It is basically a decade+ of repeats. If you were allowed to post whatever you wanted on any site, which just be more repeats, what makes you think anything would be different? Don’t you think people would just respond the same way?
The Buy-and-Holders say the same things over again too. If I have heard the phrase “timing doesn’t work” one time, I have heard it 10,000 times. I don’t mean that as a dig. They believe it is true and they believe it is important. My point is that it is not at all unusual for the advocates of an investing strategy to make similar points over and over again. If you truly believe that timing doesn’t work, you are quite properly going to say that again and again. And, if you truly believe that exercising price discipline (that is, engaging in long-term timing) is essential, you are quite properly going to say that again and again. I believe that exercising price discipline (that is, engaging in long-term timing) is essential.
I absolutely believe that people would continue to respond the same way that they have responded for 15 years now if I were permitted to post honestly at every investing discussion board and blog on the internet. It would be very good news for Valuation-Informed Indexing if that were to happen.
What we have seen from the first day is that 10 percent of the population already believes in Valuation-Informed Indexing and that another 10 percent of the population has an interest in learning more about it while 20 percent of the population feels so strongly about Buy-and-Hold that they engage in criminally abusive behavior to stop others from hearing about Valuation-Informed Indexing and 60 percent of the population is generally sympathetic to Buy-and-Hold but not so intense that they are willing to engage in abusive behavior. If we enforced the laws on our boards and blogs, the 10 percent that wants to learn more would be able to ask the questions that they need to have answered to become converts. That doubles the number of people who believe in Valuation-Informed Indexing. Then that 20 percent would in time become 40 percent and then the 40 percent would become 80 percent.
No new idea takes over the world in 24 hours. Buy-and-Hold is backed by research done by a Nobel prize winning economist and the basic idea strikes people as being rooted in common sense and millions of good and smart people feel that they have enjoyed good results with Buy-and-Hold for a long period of time. This strategy is not going to pass from the scene because some fellow puts up a post saying that he does not think that it adds up. It is going to take years of effort put forward by THOUSANDS of people all coming at the question from different perspectives to cause people to gradually over time come to lose confidence in Buy-and-Hold and to gain confidence in Valuation-Informed Indexing.
I want to see that process get started. If the process had gotten started in 1981, as I believe it would have in an ideal world, I believe that 90 percent of the population of investors would today be Valuation-Informed Indexers. We are obviously not today in that magical place. How are we going to get there? We need to put one foot in front of the other and just make gradual progress day by day by day. We cannot get to first base without first reassuring the 10 percent who already believe in Valuation-Informed Indexing that their views are warmly welcomed at every investing discussion board and blog on the internet. That’s what I want to change. I want everyone who has doubts about Buy-and-Hold to feel comfortable expressing those doubts publicly. I don’t want anyone to say anything negative about Buy-and-Hold that he or she does not sincerely feel. But I want every last community member who sincerely feel doubts to express those doubts with as much strength of conviction as he or she feels about them.
I want to follow the process envisioned in the published posting rules of every site on the internet and indeed in the laws of the United States. I want Buy-and-Hold to be subjected to sincere and polite and respectful criticism just as every other idea advanced in the United States is subjected to sincere and polite and respectful criticism. That’s all that I have ever wanted. It’s a very, very, very, very, very big thing, in my eyes. I find it shocking that there is even a tiny bit of controversy over this matter. It is my take that every Buy-and-Holder alive should want what I want. I am not able to imagine any scenario in which there could be any negative arising out of what I want becoming the reality. I see what I want as being a 100 percent positive for every single person affected by it. But I do very much want this thing.
I do not see it as something that can be compromised away or negotiated away or ignored or forgotten about or whatever. This process-oriented concern is of huge importance to me. It would not be overstating things to say that the pursuit of this process-oriented thing has become the focus of my life for 15 years now. But it is only this one small (in my eyes!) thing that I care about. There is nothing else on my agenda.
So —
I see it as making all the difference in the world if I am permitted to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. To me this is very, very, very much a biggie.
Perhaps it’s not that way for you. Perhaps for you it is no biggie so long as most people continue to have confidence in Buy-and-Hold, as I am certain they would if I were permitted to post honestly. Perhaps for you, there would effectively be no change so long as most people remained Buy-and-Holders.
But for me, that one small change would represent all the change in the world. I think that I am different than most people re the intensity of feeling that I have re this matter. I strongly suspect that this is why I became a journalist in the first place. I made journalism my life’s work because this process-oriented concern means the world to me. Others don’t react the same way because each of us is different in some ways and others just don’t see this aspect of things in the way that I see this aspect of things.
I hope that that helps you understand just a little bit better where I am coming from re this matter, Anonymous.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.
Rob
“If I have heard the phrase “timing doesn’t work” one time, I have heard it 10,000 times.”
Because it’s in response to the 10,000 times you shrieked “buy and hold doesn’t work!” The repetition is yours. Years and years of mindlessly regurgitating the same talking points. That, more than anything else, is what got you banned from all those sites. You will never accept that life has more than one topic.
I very much accept that life has more than one topic, Anonymous. I posted at the Retire Early board from May 1999 through May 2002 without once saying that “Buy-and-Hold doesn’t work” and I had a great time doing it. There’s no belief on my end that the only topic worth discussing is valuations.
But, yes, valuations is the only topic that I have written about for the past 15 years. That much is so. That’s not because I personally believe it is the only topic of importance. It is because I care deeply about our communities and because I learned through personal experience that valuations is a topic that causes us trouble in a way that no other topic causes us trouble. We need to talk about hundreds of other topics in constructive and effective and positive and life-affirming ways and we do. We do not today talk in constructive and effective and positive and life-affirming ways about valuations. That needs to change.
That’s why I have made this topic my focus. We all need to pull together to get our discussions of this particular topic on the right track. We need to follow the same rules when discussing valuations that we follow when discussing every other topic that we discuss.
You believe in Buy-and-Hold. You believe that the number on your portfolio statement reflects the true value of your portfolio. You believe that a withdrawal rate of 4 percent is perfectly safe at all times.
I believe in Valuation-Informed Indexing. I believe that, at a time when stocks are priced at two times fair value, I need to divide the number on my portfolio by two to know the true, lasting value of that portfolio. I believe that there are some valuation levels at which the safe withdrawal rate is 1.6 percent and some where it is 9 percent and some where it is something between those two.
Can we be friends despite our differences re these matters?
It’s the fact that I even need to ask that question that shows why the valuations issue is different from all the others. If one person on our boards said “I would never retire at age 50, I would get bored” and someone else said “Oh, I think retiring at age 50 would be amazing, I would retire at age 40 if I could,” they could remain friends despite their differences. Some people on the board would agree with the first statement, some would agree with the second and some would hold an opinion somewhere in the middle of those two. But we would see no death threats or board bannings or any of the other stuff in response to an expression of either of those two points of view re an important Retire Early issue.
When it comes to discussions of valuations, a good number of us put our friendships aside and go on the attack when other community members express different points of view. That needs to stop. Valuations isn’t the only important issue but it is certainly an important issue. So we all need to learn what we can about it when opportunities to do so present themselves. To create learning experiences, we all need to express our sincere views on the subject every time it comes up. Those who sincerely believe that the safe withdrawal rate is always 4 percent need to say that. And those who believe that the safe withdrawal rate varies with changes in valuation levels need to say that. And those on both sides need to always be sure to post in warm and friendly and humble and open-minded ways, ways that encourage others to step up to the plate and express their views as well.
There is not one school of academic thought as to how stock investing works. There are two. There is Buy-and-Hold, which is based on the peer-reviewed research of Nobel-prize-winning economist Eugene Fama. And there is Valuation-Informed Indexing, which is based on the peer-reviewed research of Nobel-prize-winning economist Robert Shiller. Both points of view need to be given daily expression on our boards and blogs. Never should any members of either camp be made to feel unwelcome. We all should be 100 percent united in dealing with the problem if ever there should come a time when one of the members of either camp is made to feel unwelcome. We are all here for the same purpose — to learn. To learn. we all need to be open to hearing the views of every other community member.
I really have heard the phrase “timing doesn’t work” thousands of times. And, no, I didn’t only hear it in response to my phrase “Buy-and-Hold doesn’t work.” I heard it thousands of times in the years before I dared to give voice to my belief that Buy-and-Hold doesn’t work. Buy-and-Holders comprise 90 percent of our board communities. I get the sense that you don’t often think about how dogmatic your phrases sound to the 10 percent of us who hold very, very different views as to how stock investing works.
I don’t want you to say things you don’t believe. That’s the last thing in the world that I would ever want. But I do think that you need to work harder to tolerate the expression of minority views that are sincere and that are rooted in decades of peer-reviewed research. We learn more when our views are challenged than we do when they are supported. All new ideas start out with only one supporter. That was true of Buy-and-Hold once upon a time. There was a time when there was only one person in the world who believed in Buy-and-Hold. Today, the number is in the millions. It might be that that is what is going to happen with Valuation-Informed Indexing. You need to show the idea the respect that it merits despite your personal disagreement.
That’s the deal here. I need to show your ideas respect too. It’s not always easy. I believe strongly that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage. It is hard at times to resist the urge to say it precisely as I believe it. Perhaps I should pull back a bit when a phrase like that comes to mind. I have friends who believe strongly that Buy-and-Hold is the answer and I might alienate them by using such a phrase.
The tricky part is that these are both number-based strategies. I could make a practice of using soft words when referring to Buy-and-Hold out of deference to my many friends who believe that that strategy is the answer. But what happens when someone asks me what the safe withdrawal rate is at a time when the P/E10 level is 44? If I say “1.6,” that is going to hurt. That’s not a soft number. I cannot talk about a numbers-based strategy without ever mentioning numbers and I obviously need to report the numbers that apply honestly and accurately. So there is a certain amount of hurtful stuff that just comes with the territory here. We all need to be mindful of the sensitivities and do all we can not to upset our fellow community members while also being true to ourselves and doing all in our power to bring about a learning experience for all.
I’m up for the challenge if you Goons — er, you Guys and Gals! — are.
I love my Buy-and-Hold friends, Anonymous. That’s a deep reality here. I go to battle with you in the spirit in which two old dogs who have been fighting each other in fun for their entire lives go to battle with each other. It’s what we do, it’s how we show affection for each other. I get the sense at times that that is not the spirit in which you go to battle with me. Are you my friend? Do you respect my contributions to the various board and blog communities? Are you grateful for the learning experiences that I have facilitated for you?
If the answer to these questions is “no,” then it is not me causing the repetition, it is you. If the answer to these questions is “no,” you are the one causing the problem by using your words not to encourage discussion of important Retire Early stuff but to shut such discussions down. If that’s the case, you should be ashamed of yourself, man. I mean, come on.
If the answer to these questions is “yes,” then let’s get it on! Let’s work it out. Let’s move forward. Tell me what you need to make it happen and I’ll be there for you. Buy-and-Hold believer or no Buy-and-Hold believer, I am always there for a friend.
I hope that helps a small bit.
Rob
“That’s why I have made this topic my focus. We all need to pull together to get our discussions of this particular topic on the right track.”
This is YOUR topic. That doesn’t mean everyone else has to bend to you. We have heard you say everything 10,000 times and are just plain tired of it. You kept clogging up every thread with the same things. It got to be such a nuisance that there was no choice but to ban you. There really is nothing more to say.
You Goons are 10 percent of the community, Anonymous. Give me a freakin’ break. Buy-and-Holders comprise 90 percent of the community. So I am very much in the minority. But 100 percent of those who participate in community discussions (including you Goons!) agreed to follow the published posting rules and the laws of the United States before they were permitted to post. You are in the majority re the substantive issue but I am in the majority re the procedural issue.
You don’t get to decide what your fellow community members can hear. They can hear whatever they please. They can ask whatever questions they please. If you violate the rules, you get the boot. If you violate the laws of the United States, you end up in a prison cell. I mean. come on.
If you truly believe that there is nothing more to say, stop posting.
You can do as you please. If you submit a comment here that I think might in some way help some of our fellow community members understand how stock investing works, I will approve it. But if you mix in garbage with the good stuff, I will also call you out on the garbage. And, if you submit a comment that is pure garbage, I will of course delete it. That’s my job.
I wish you all good things. But that’s as far as it goes. I care about my fellow community members and I view a failed retirement as a serious life setback. So I intend to continue to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics.
I hope that is okay by you. I hope that policy doesn’t “clog up” anything for you. I hope that you don’t get “just plain tired” of me doing that. I hope that you don’t find me a “nuisance” for doing that. I hope that you don’t view acceptance of that reality as “bending to me.”
But, in the event you do, I imagine that I am just going to have to live with that reality. I don’t post dishonestly on the numbers that my friends use to plan their retirements. It just doesn’t happen. Not in 15 years, not in 15 billion years. Not once, not ever. No way. no how. Not this boy.
And when I see retirement studies that my friends are using to plan their retirements that get the numbers wildly wrong, I point out the errors in them. There was a time when I didn’t do that. There was a time when I rationalized my lack of courage in being willing to take on you Goons. There was a time when I kept it zipped, just like lots of other good and smart people do today. I am not proud of that. I am ashamed of that. I sure don’t ever intend to return to my shameful policy of keeping it zipped re the errors in Greaney’s retirement study. Find somebody else, you know? I feel better doing honest work that helps people. A LOT better. Big bucks or no big bucks, that’s the way that I intend to continue to play it.
I really do wish you all good things. But there are limits, you know?
My best wishes to you and yours in any evemt.
Rob
There are now laws as to whom can post on privately run boards. The board owners decide who can and cannot participate. In fact, this is how you operate. You have deleted the vast majority of post, which is just pure hypocrisy.
There are laws against financial fraud, Anonymous.
I am not engaging in financial fraud when I delete your insanely abusive posts. You ARE engaging in financial fraud when you seek unjustified board bannings as part of an effort to keep millions of middle-class investors from learning about the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies and the infamous 4-percent rule that followed from them.
You obviously have nothing to worry about from me. I have no power to send you to prison. If you go to prison, it’s going to be because a jury sent you there. I intend to testify honestly when called before your jury. But that’s as far as it goes.
Board owners can decide who can and who cannot participate at their boards SO LONG AS THEIR PURPOSE IS NOT TO ADVANCE A HUGE COVER-UP OF ACTS OF FINANCIAL FRAUD.
Do you think that if Harvey Weinstein said “it is legal to not put someone in a movie” that his jury would buy that story as a legitimate reason for him to threaten to take an actress out of a movie because she did not accede to his sexual demands? I don’t think that one is going to fly for the Weinstein monster. And I don’t think that that one is going to fly for the Lindauer monster or the Greaney monster or the Bogle monster either.
But we’ll see, you know? We will get to watch it all play out together in real time in the days following the next price crash.
Please mark me down as STRONGLY opposed to the smelly financial fraud garbage that we have all seen play it before our eyes over the past 15 years. Please mark me down as strongly OPPOSED to death threats and strongly OPPOSED to demands for unjustified board bannings and strongly OPPOSED to tens of thousands of acts of defamation and strongly OPPOSED to threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.
I love you man. But I love my freedom too. So nothing that goes to the wrong side of the felony line for this boy. I would be truly grateful if you would try to find somebody else.
Holy moly!
Rob
Getting mad at us won’t help. No one else is giving you any feedback at all.
You have said that you want to gain followers. Your strategy of endless repetition has gained you zero followers in 15 years. So naturally you believe the solution is even more repetition.
Are you capable of even recognizing the gaping hole in that logic?
I love my country, Anonymous. That’s the bottom line here.
Of course I would like to have lots of followers. But I have zero willingness to cross the felony line to obtain them. If that’s the price that must be paid, I would just as soon not have followers, you know? Such is life.
What happens after the crash? A lot of people who referred to Bernie Madoff “Saint Bernie” before his fund collapsed expressed different feelings toward him after they lost most of their retirement money as a result of his massive act of financial fraud. We saw a little bit of the same sort of thing among Buy-and-Holders in the days following the 2008 crash. It never developed to the same level of disillusion because prices went back up quickly. But what if they don’t go back quickly next time? I think we will see a stronger reaction if that’s how things play out next time. We will need to wait a bit to find out for sure.
What do you want from me? What is it that you would like me to do for you?
If it is on the right side of the felony line, I am in. In two seconds. You won’t need to ask twice.
If it is on the wrong side of the felony line, you would save us both some embarrassment by not asking. I am not exactly flexible when it comes to stuff on the wrong side of the felony line. I think it would be fair to say that I am FAMOUS on the internet for my lack of flexibility re this sort of thing.
Tell me something that I can do for you that is on the right side of the felony line.
Or stop posting.
Or keep doing what you have been doing for 15 years now if that is what makes you happy.
But please understand that it is just not in me to participate in this massive act of financial fraud. I love my country and that runs deep and there is really precisely zero chance that that is ever going to change.
Time will reveal for both of us the story of how it all is going to play out.
Is that not so? Does that not sound at least roughly right?
Rob
Please explain how it is a felony when you have posts blocked, but is not a felony when you block posts.
I don’t block posts to keep people from learning about an error that I made in a retirement study.
That’s a big, big, big, big. big, big, big difference.
But, again — it doesn’t matter what I say about it. It’s your jury that will determine the length of your prison sentence. It’s what your jury says about it that matters.
I wish you the best of luck with it, man. But that’s as far as it goes.
Rob