Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:
Funny how you talk about your “friend”. On your website, you talk about the “thousands” with failed retirements, yet can’t link to one single person. You just make up imaginary people. At the same time, you have been given many links to successful buy and hold outcomes, yet you ignore those. Further, as pointed out thus week, yet again, there has never been a 30 year period in which a 4% withdrawal rate has never worked. That fact alone blows away makes your endless diatribes meaningless. Lastly, your the one sitting here with the failed retirement plan, yet you want to lecture everyone else.
You need to stop attacking everyone else. We are not your problem. You are.
There are thousands of people who have spoken over the course of the past 15 years in support of my right to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. All of their comments are documented at my web site. I have a slider at the top of every page of the site that runs over 200 of these comments, some from a number of the biggest names in the field. I’ve never been in the majority. I am very much in the minority — about 10 percent of the population today believes that valuations affect long-term returns. But I have never had a problem generating support for my work. About 10 percent of every board population offers the most effusive praise for my work that I have ever seen offered for anyone’s work. It is an extremely gratifying and humbling experience to hear the sorts of positive things that many people have said about the work that I have done over the past 15 years.
But it is true that those people stop speaking once they see the reaction of many Buy-and-Holders to their words of praise. People don’t expect to see that sort of behavior in our society. People have lived long lives and never seen that sort of behavior before and it shocks them and they silence themselves in response. One of the best illustrations of the general phenomenon that I have seen was when Carl Richards sent me an e-mail telling me that my web site was his favorite on the internet, that he had learned more from me that from anyone else on the subject of investing, that he thought that the work that I was doing was of “huge value” and that he was banning me from his site because some Buy-and-Holders who visited the site had told him that they would never visit again if my words continued to appear there.
That’s the problem that we face as a society. If we allow people to say what they truly believe re investing advice, as we allow people to say what they truly believe in every other field of human endeavor, we will be able collectively to take things to a very good place. But if we don’t, we are stuck with Buy-and-Hold and all that follows from it. If we are not even able to make the case for why this strategy is so dangerous, we cannot win converts to the approach supported by the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research. The only way to move forward is to permit honest and civil discussions and, since the Buy-and-Holders are in the majority today, the practical reality is that they possess the power to stop such discussions from going forward.
Carl was the keynote speaker at a recent FinCon event. That means that he had about 2,000 people cheering on his words. Had he said at that event what he told me in his e-mail correspondence with me, that he views my site as the best investing site on the internet today, none of the things that you say here would be so, Sammy. I would have so many people coming to my site today that there wouldn’t be enough hours in the day for me to answer all the questions directed at me. The people who would be asking those questions would be people who need help and who I would be happy to help if only circumstances were different. No one gains by our collective decision to deny those people the help they need and want. But the reality is that those people cannot gain access to the help they need and want today.
Carl is afraid to say the words that he would need to say for those people to get the help they need. There is a Social Taboo that stops us all from speaking openly and plainly and frankly about the 36 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. This Social Taboo is the #1 biggest public policy problem facing our society today, in my assessment. It is this Social Taboo that served as the primary cause of the economic crisis that began in 2008 and that is probably the biggest cause of most of the political frictions that we have seen evidence themselves in recent years.
I don’t believe that I am helping us overcome that Social Taboo by keeping quiet about my belief that the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research is legitimate research. I believe that each time one of us makes a decision to keep quiet about his or her true beliefs, it makes it that much harder for all the others who want to speak honestly to work up the courage to do so. Our Buy-and-Hold friends made a mistake. When the mistake was discovered, their first reaction was not to fix it but to cover it up. And our decision was to go along with the cover-up because that was the easier path to take in the short-run. Now, 36 years later, here we are, with millions having suffered in an economic crisis brought on by our cowardice.
I believe that we need to be charitable in the comments that we make about the Buy-and-Hold strategy and about our Buy-and-Hold friends who advocate this strategy. But I also believe that we need to be honest about the 36 years of peer-reviewed research showing that there is precisely zero chance that this strategy could ever work in the long-term in the real world. I believe that the answer lies in mixing charity and honesty in the proper proportions. Yes, we need to be nice. Kindness is a virtue, But it is not nice to be quiet about errors that have been made in studies that millions of people have used to plan their retirements. That’s a very, very, very cold kind of kindness, in my assessment.
I wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, Sammy.
Rob
John says
Rob your opinion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF1RodFhFwc
Rob says
Rock star stuff, John.
This sort of presentation is the reason why I love Bogle so much. When I was trying to figure this stuff out, he was the only guy I discovered who talked in a real and straight-talk fashion like this. I personally rank Bogle second only to Shiller in terms of the help he provides investors. And I wouldn’t argue too much with someone who put Bogle first. None of the work that I have done over the past 15 years would have been possible without Bogle’s enormous contributions.
Rob
Anonymous says
Rob,
JD Roth bought his website back. Maybe he will let you post there now that he wants to be able to build it back up. Maybe you can help out by taking all your followers over there.
http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2017/10/15/i-bought-get-rich-slowly/
Rob says
That’s happy news, Anonymous.
I agree with J.D. that there is value in the archives of that site. And most of that value was supplied by J.D. (and by the comments that he provoked). So he is the best person to run the site.
The real story here is his love for the site. He wouldn’t buy it back if he didn’t love it. I think it’s awesome that he took this step.
I can certainly imagine making contributions there.
Rob
Anonymous says
Yes, you’re great at imagining. Not so great at actually doing. When is the last time you posted at any other blog?
Rob says
I don’t recall. It’s been a long time.
But I certainly expect to be doing so in future days.
After the next crash, I am certain that I will be posting at lots of places. It will be a lot easier then. Emotions will have turned. I will not then be up against the emotional resistance that I have been up against for the past 15 years.
Would it be a good idea to do more posting at other blogs BEFORE the crash? I think it would be a good idea. But it’s hard. There’s an emotional toll that has to be paid for telling people what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research tells us about how stock investing works in the real world.
Do you see anybody else doing it? Can you point to anyone else who has done as much of it as I did in earlier years?
There’s a reason why no one else goes there. It’s hard work. Taking constant emotional hits is the hardest kind of work there is.
I am proud that I have done as much of that kind of work as I have. I want to do more. I believe that I can do a lot of good by doing more. But I am not inclined to get down on myself for not doing more when I have already done more than anyone else out there. I am not super-human. I am made of flesh and blood like everyone else. I need to push myself as hard as it is reasonable to push myself but no harder. Pushing myself too hard would just make things worse. It would lead to me doing less of this kind of work instead of more.
These are my sincere thoughts re these terribly important matters, in any event.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
Anonymous says
Too hard? This is your job. The job your country called you to do. The job that requires a full commitment, leaving no time for other work. And frankly, your recent job performance is sorely lacking.
Rob says
It will be interesting to see what millions of middle-class investors say in the days following the next crash, Anonymous.
I think people will get it. But I have been wrong before and I am of course biased.
We will just have to let it all play out before us to find out for sure.
I wish you all good things.
Rob
Anonymous says
I can tell you what they will say.
“Who is this guy? Where was he before the crash? Anybody can just jump in and say “I told you so.” I’m not giving this crank any money.”
Rob says
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
I wish you well, old friend.
Rob