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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
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    • Contact Rob
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    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
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  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
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    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“It Is the Worst of All Worlds Not to Even Let Study Readers Know That There Is an Academically Respected Alternative to the Buy-and-Hold Numbers. If the Retirements Really Do Fail, the People Who Used the Studies to Plan Their Retirements Are Going to Be Upset. They Are Going To Be Doubly Upset When They Learn That There Were People Who Warned the Authors of the Studies That Valuation Adjustments Were Needed and That the Authors of the Studies Didn’t Even Bother to Let the Readers of Their Studies Know About the Issue.”

December 8, 2017 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for one of my columns at the Value Walk site:

Scan back the last two years on your boards. Nothing about savings. Scan this site. Ditto. You continue to classify buy and hold as the biggest cause of failed retirements (a lie).

Also, to set the record straight, it was not you that made the motley fool board successful. Saw the old history on that claim and where you were set straight. The prison crap is just your fantasy.

I have focused my writing efforts on investing issues in recent years. But I wrote extensively about saving in earlier days.

I don’t want to see Buy-and-Hold cause even a single failed retirement. If it is true that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies do not contain valuation adjustments, I think it is fair to say that the number is going to end up being a lot bigger than “one.” How is that a good thing? The studies should be corrected.

Now —

Let’s say that the authors of the studies are suffering so much cognitive dissonance that they cannot bear to acknowledge that their studies are in error. I believe that cognitive dissonance is a real thing. So I believe that it is possible that the authors of the studies are able to rationalize to themselves not including valuation adjustments in them. What then?

In that case, the authors of the studies should at a bare minimum point out in the studies that there is 36 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect the result and let people know that there are people who have calculated what the safe withdrawal rate is in the event that valuations affect the result. Then the people reading the studies can decide for themselves whether they want to follow the Buy-and-Hold numbers of the Valuation-Informed Indexing numbers. It seems to me that it is a lot better to let the readers of the studies decide which sort of study they are going to follow or whether they want to adopt some middle-ground position.

It seems to me that it is the worst of all worlds not to even let study readers know that there is an academically respected alternative to the Buy-and-Hold numbers. If the retirements really do fail, the people who used the studies to plan their retirements are going to be upset. They are going to be doubly upset when they learn that there were people who warned the authors of the Buy-and-Hold studies that valuation adjustments were needed and that the authors of the studies didn’t even bother to let the readers of their studies know about the issue.

These are my sincere thoughts re this terribly important matter in any event, old friend.

Rob

Filed Under: Wall Street Corruption

Comments

  1. Anonymous says

    December 8, 2017 at 8:44 pm

    The research is conclusive that the main reason for failed retirements is due to insufficient savings. To say otherwise is wrong and would be fraud.

  2. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 2:30 am

    Your motive for saying that is rooted in emotion, Anonymous. You don’t want to address the issue that has been on the table for 15 years now.

    I don’t feel even a tiny bit comfortable telling my friends lies about the numbers they use to plan their retirements.

    The retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site does not contain an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. I said that on the morning of May 13, 2002, and I say it again today and I’ll still be saying it 15 billion years from today.

    Anybody who doesn’t feel comfortable calculating the safe withdrawal rate is free not to calculate it or not to discuss the calculations done by others. But no one in any community has the right to engage in intimidation tactics aimed at stopping those who do want to perform accurate safe-withdrawal-rate calculations and to discuss those calculations with others from doing so.

    The safe withdrawal rate is a number that VARIES depending on the valuation level that applies at a given point of time. Every investor alive needs to know that. We should all be working together to get the word out. Those who for some reason or another do not want to participate in that effort need to at the very minimum permit others to participate in it in peace.

    These are my sincere thoughts re the matter. I am all for having community members do what they can to help others save more effectively. I wrote an entire book on the subject and am 100 percent happy to help out in that area where I can. But that reality doesn’t make me any more willing to report or endorse false safe-withdrawal-rate numbers. When I report safe withdrawal rates, I report them with the “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) research findings of the last 36 years in mind. And I don’t have a tiny bit of give re that question. Honesty is 100 percent imperative re the reporting of numbers that people are using to plan their retirements.

    I hope that helps a small bit, my good friend.

    Rob

  3. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 7:34 am

    “Your motive for saying that is rooted in emotion, Anonymous.”

    No, it is rooted in fact. Your response is what is emotional. Why is that, Rob?

  4. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 7:42 am

    I’m not the one who got the numbers wrong in a retirement study posted at my web site, Anonymous. That was the other fellow.

    The rational thing is to correct a retirement study that has been shown to be in error. The emotional thing is to cover up the error for 15 years.

    Or so says Rob Bennett in any event, you know?

    Rob

  5. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 7:58 am

    The “other fellow” is living a happy retirement. You have been obsessing over one online spat for 15 years, immersing yourself in an entirely delusional world of goons and conspiracies. With no sign of that ever changing.

    Tragic.

  6. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 8:13 am

    If Greaney is enjoying his retirement, that’s a good thing.

    Greaney is not my only fellow community member. There are thousands of others, and I would like to see them enjoy their retirements as well. So I have elected to report the safe-withdrawal-rate numbers honestly and accurately.

    Why has my desire to do that become a “spat”?

    It’s become a “spat” because Greaney is embarrassed that he got the numbers wrong. Did I cause his embarrassment or is it all the people who failed to speak up about the failure of the Wall Street Con Men to update Buy-and-Hold to reflect what we have learned from the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in this field who caused this “spat”?

    I think it is the failure of so many to talk about the research that has caused the problem. So I try to be careful to avoid making that mistake.

    I have no desire for any “spats,” Anonymous. But I have a strong desire to post honestly at every discussion board and blog on the internet and not to be attacked for doing so. There’s a tragedy here. But I don’t think it is my stubborn insistence on recognition of my right to post honestly that is the tragedy. I wish that everyone insisted on everyone’s right to post honestly. That would solve all the problems. That’s the American way.

    So we will just have to wait to see how things play out. I will never do anything to cause any “spats.” But I will continue to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. And we will find out together how things play out as time passes.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  7. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 9:38 am

    “I wish that everyone insisted on everyone’s right to post honestly. That would solve all the problems. That’s the American way.”

    No, that’s what IT people call a solution in search of a problem. Everyone can already post honestly. Everyone, that is, with the tiny exception of that handful of cranks who absolutely will not behave in a civil manner. Cranks have always been shunned, and always will be shunned, and rightly so.

    Just for clarity, here is the first part of the Wikipedia entry for “cranks”:

    “Crank is a pejorative term used for a person who holds an unshakable belief that most of his or her contemporaries consider to be false. A crank belief is so wildly at variance with those commonly held as to be considered ludicrous. Cranks characteristically dismiss all evidence or arguments which contradict their own unconventional beliefs, making any rational debate a futile task and rendering them impervious to facts, evidence, and rational inference.”

    I especially like that last sentence. Bullseye. They don’t come any more futile and impervious than you.

  8. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 10:01 am

    Wow Rob, you really need to read this whole entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crank_(person)

    It’s your freakin’ biography. Juicy excerpt:

    According to these authors, virtually universal characteristics of cranks include:

    1. Cranks overestimate their own knowledge and ability, and underestimate that of acknowledged experts.
    2. Cranks insist that their alleged discoveries are urgently important.
    3. Cranks rarely, if ever, acknowledge any error, no matter how trivial.
    4. Cranks love to talk about their own beliefs, often in inappropriate social situations, but they tend to be bad listeners, being uninterested in anyone else’s experience or opinions.

    Some cranks lack academic achievement, in which case they typically assert that academic training in the subject of their crank belief is not only unnecessary for discovering the truth, but actively harmful because they believe it poisons the minds by teaching falsehoods. Others greatly exaggerate their personal achievements, and may insist that some achievement (real or alleged) in some entirely unrelated area of human endeavor implies that their cranky opinion should be taken seriously.

    Some cranks claim vast knowledge of any relevant literature, while others claim that familiarity with previous work is entirely unnecessary; regardless, cranks inevitably reveal that whether or not they believe themselves to be knowledgeable concerning relevant matters of fact, mainstream opinion, or previous work, they are not, in fact, well-informed concerning the topic of their belief.

    In addition, many cranks:

    1. seriously misunderstand the mainstream opinion to which they believe that they are objecting,
    2. stress that they have been working out their ideas for many decades, and claim that this fact alone entails that their belief cannot be dismissed as resting upon some simple error,
    3. compare themselves with luminaries in their chosen field (often Galileo Galilei, Nicolaus Copernicus, Leonhard Euler, Isaac Newton, Albert Einstein or Georg Cantor), implying that the mere unpopularity of some belief is in itself evidence of plausibility,
    4. claim that their ideas are being suppressed, typically by secret intelligence organizations, mainstream science, powerful business interests, or other groups which, they allege, are terrified by the possibility of their revolutionary insights becoming widely known,
    5. appear to regard themselves as persons of unique historical importance.

  9. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 12:47 pm

    No, that’s what IT people call a solution in search of a problem. Everyone can already post honestly. Everyone, that is, with the tiny exception of that handful of cranks who absolutely will not behave in a civil manner. Cranks have always been shunned, and always will be shunned, and rightly so.

    Just for clarity, here is the first part of the Wikipedia entry for “cranks”:

    “Crank is a pejorative term used for a person who holds an unshakable belief that most of his or her contemporaries consider to be false. A crank belief is so wildly at variance with those commonly held as to be considered ludicrous. Cranks characteristically dismiss all evidence or arguments which contradict their own unconventional beliefs, making any rational debate a futile task and rendering them impervious to facts, evidence, and rational inference.”

    I especially like that last sentence. Bullseye. They don’t come any more futile and impervious than you.

    Please mark me down as believing that the crank who was recently awarded the Nobel prize in Economics might be on to something.

    Rob

  10. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 12:53 pm

    Wow Rob, you really need to read this whole entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crank_(person)

    It’s your freakin’ biography. Juicy excerpt:

    According to these authors, virtually universal characteristics of cranks include:

    1. Cranks overestimate their own knowledge and ability, and underestimate that of acknowledged experts.
    2. Cranks insist that their alleged discoveries are urgently important.
    3. Cranks rarely, if ever, acknowledge any error, no matter how trivial.
    4. Cranks love to talk about their own beliefs, often in inappropriate social situations, but they tend to be bad listeners, being uninterested in anyone else’s experience or opinions.

    Some cranks lack academic achievement, in which case they typically assert that academic training in the subject of their crank belief is not only unnecessary for discovering the truth, but actively harmful because they believe it poisons the minds by teaching falsehoods. Others greatly exaggerate their personal achievements, and may insist that some achievement (real or alleged) in some entirely unrelated area of human endeavor implies that their cranky opinion should be taken seriously.

    Some cranks claim vast knowledge of any relevant literature, while others claim that familiarity with previous work is entirely unnecessary; regardless, cranks inevitably reveal that whether or not they believe themselves to be knowledgeable concerning relevant matters of fact, mainstream opinion, or previous work, they are not, in fact, well-informed concerning the topic of their belief.

    In addition, many cranks:

    1. seriously misunderstand the mainstream opinion to which they believe that they are objecting,
    2. stress that they have been working out their ideas for many decades, and claim that this fact alone entails that their belief cannot be dismissed as resting upon some simple error,
    3. compare themselves with luminaries in their chosen field (often Galileo Galilei, Nicolaus Copernicus, Leonhard Euler, Isaac Newton, Albert Einstein or Georg Cantor), implying that the mere unpopularity of some belief is in itself evidence of plausibility,
    4. claim that their ideas are being suppressed, typically by secret intelligence organizations, mainstream science, powerful business interests, or other groups which, they allege, are terrified by the possibility of their revolutionary insights becoming widely known,
    5. appear to regard themselves as persons of unique historical importance.

    Every new idea that made life better for millions was in its early days dismissed as a crank idea by those seeking to defend their turf from the reach of progress.

    Rob

  11. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 1:14 pm

    “If Greaney is enjoying his retirement, that’s a good thing.”

    All we have to do is compare those that have been financially successful in retirement. The common thread is the savings level.

  12. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 1:22 pm

    Okay.

    Rob

  13. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 2:24 pm

    “Every new idea that made life better for millions was in its early days dismissed as a crank idea by those seeking to defend their turf from the reach of progress.”

    a) Wrong, and b) for the few who actually were called cranks, it did not take 15 years for their ideas to be accepted.

    This is actually a fascinating topic. Much has been written about your ilk.

    “Gardner says that cranks have two common characteristics. The first and most important is that they work in almost total isolation from the scientific community.

    The second characteristic of the crank (which also contributes to his or her isolation) is the tendency to paranoia.
    1. The pseudo-scientist considers himself a genius.
    2. He regards other researchers as stupid, dishonest or both.
    3. He believes there is a campaign against his ideas, a campaign comparable to the persecution of Galileo or Pasteur.”

    Related to the discussion of cranks is the topic of pseudoscience.

    “During the mid-20th century, Karl Popper emphasized the criterion of falsifiability to distinguish science from nonscience. Statements, hypotheses, or theories have falsifiability or refutability if there is the inherent possibility that they can be proven false. That is, if it is possible to conceive of an observation or an argument which negates them. Popper used astrology and psychoanalysis as examples of pseudoscience and Einstein’s theory of relativity as an example of science.

    Another example which shows the distinct need for a claim to be falsifiable was stated in Carl Sagan’s publication The Demon-Haunted World when he discusses an invisible dragon that he has in his garage. The point is made that there is no physical test to refute the claim of the presence of this dragon. No matter what test you think you can devise, there is then a reason why this does not apply to the invisible dragon, so one can never prove that the initial claim is wrong. Sagan concludes; “Now, what’s the difference between an invisible, incorporeal, floating dragon who spits heatless fire and no dragon at all?”. He states that “your inability to invalidate my hypothesis is not at all the same thing as proving it true”, once again explaining that even if such a claim were true, it would be outside the realm of scientific inquiry.”

    VII is a perfect example of pseudoscience. You refuse to define how to implement it, therefore it can’t be tested, therefore it can’t be falsified.

    Face it Rob. You’re not the very special snowflake you believe yourself to be. You’re just another crank out there howling at the moon.

  14. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    So, if we see what is successful, then we just repeat that. As an example, William Bernstein has done the research and the work. We don’t need silly timing schemes. You act like there is secret to all of this or that you have figured out the holy grail of investing. It really isn’t that hard to figure out.

  15. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 3:21 pm

    And yet Bernstein said that the safe withdrawal rate at the top of the bubble was 2 percent.

    I wonder why.

    Rob

  16. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 4:31 pm

    “And yet Bernstein said that the safe withdrawal rate at the top of the bubble was 2 percent.”

    And yet Bernstein said that sufficient savings was required before retiring and that you can’t time the market. Wonder why?

  17. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 4:50 pm

    He said that sufficient savings is required before retiring because it is true.

    He said that you can’t time the market because Get Rich Quick strategies are popular for so long as stock prices remain at insanely dangerous levels. Long-term timing is price discipline. Precisely 100 percent of the peer-reviewed research shows that exercising price discipline (engaging in long-term timing) is the key to long-term success while precisely zero percent of the peer-reviewed research shows that Buy-and-Hold can ever produce good long-term results.

    Bernstein likes to be popular like everyone else. But do millions of middle-class investors need investiing advice that makes those offering it popular or do they need investing advice that permits them to enjoy far higher returns at greatly reduced risk? I believe that we should be helping people retire as soon as possible and as safely as possible. Call me madcap.

    And I believe that those offering honest, research-based investing advice will be doing perfectly fine in the popularity department as well in the days following the next price crash. I believe that we will be doing a lot better than the Wall Street Con Men pushing their smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage in those days.

    But we’ll see, you know?

    Rob

  18. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 5:04 pm

    “He said that sufficient savings is required before retiring because it is true”

    Yet you ignored that.

  19. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 5:12 pm

    Um….

    How many $500 million checks do you have supporting your retirement, Anonymous?

    I have a funny feeling that I will manage to struggle by somehow.

    The horror! The horror!

    Rob

  20. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    “How many $500 million checks do you have supporting your retirement, Anonymous?”

    I am much closer to that number than you are or ever will be.

  21. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 5:18 pm

    So you say, Anonymous.

    And yet you have failed for 15 years running now to speak out about the errors in the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site. Who has the credibility here?

    I have a funny feeling that I know who is going to end up on top here in the days following the next price crash. I hope it is okay with you if we wait a bit to find out for sure.

    Rob

  22. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 6:00 pm

    I don’t see anyone saying there was an error other than you. Further, we would need the stock to loose around 97% of its current level for my numbers to shrink to your level.

  23. Rob says

    December 9, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    The members of the committee that awarded Shiller his Nobel prize are saying that there was an error. No, they don’t say it directly and I do. That’s a plus for me. It is better to speak directly about such matters.

    And Bernstein said that the Nobel prize was 2 percent at the top of the bubble. So he was saying there is an error. And of course Shiller has said indirectly that there is an error. And Wade Pfau has said that he views the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies as “dangerous.” They are dangerous because they are in error. And the thousands of our fellow community members who expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted at our boards were indirectly saying that those studies are in error.

    And of course your yourself indirectly have said that the studies are in error through your behavior over the past 15 years. If you didn’t think the studies were in error, you obviously would not have behaved as you have.

    And all of this will be widely discussed in the days following the next crash, when millions of middle-class people will see 50 percent of their life savings go “poof!” and will be looking to find out who is responsible so that they can hang those people from a tree.

    If there is a worse retirement plan than landing in a prison cell for your remaining days, I have never heard of it, my good friend. Not this boy, you know? Any plan that lands you in a prison cell is a bad plan, in my assessment.

    I’ll take the plan where I get a $500 million settlement and no prison sentence. Call me madcap.

    Rob

  24. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    “I’ll take the plan where I get a $500 million settlement and no prison sentence. Call me madcap.”

    I would rather take my current $5+ million portfolio versus your fairytale windfall and prison fantasy. I doubt there is anyone alive that would take it any other way, including you, but you can’t admit it since your hocomania routine would come to an end.

  25. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    “How many $500 million checks do you have supporting your retirement, Anonymous?

    I have a funny feeling that I will manage to struggle by somehow.

    The horror! The horror!”

    If your retirement, and the welfare of your family, relies upon getting a settlement payment if any kind, then I agree that it will be a horror.

  26. Anonymous says

    December 9, 2017 at 9:33 pm

    “zero percent of the peer-reviewed research shows that Buy-and-Hold can ever produce good long-term results.”

    Show us just one example where a well diversified portfolio of low cost index funds have ever resulted in a failed retirement. Also show us just one successful retirement that based on VII.

  27. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 5:37 am

    I would rather take my current $5+ million portfolio versus your fairytale windfall and prison fantasy. I doubt there is anyone alive that would take it any other way, including you, but you can’t admit it since your hocomania routine would come to an end.

    I wish you the best of luck with it.

    Rob

  28. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 5:40 am

    If your retirement, and the welfare of your family, relies upon getting a settlement payment if any kind, then I agree that it will be a horror.

    I guess I wish ME the best of luck with it too!

    Take care, man.

    Rob

  29. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 5:48 am

    Show us just one example where a well diversified portfolio of low cost index funds have ever resulted in a failed retirement. Also show us just one successful retirement that based on VII.

    Look at the peer-reviewed research that Wade and I co-authored and you’ll get the idea, Anonymous. Failing to exercise price discipline ALWAYS dramatically increases risk while also ALWAYS dramatically reducing return. There has never been a single exception in the history of the stock market.

    Not every Buy-and-Hold retirement fails. But lots of them do. And, even if your retirement does not fail, how does it help you to obtain much lower returns at much higher risk? It would be better just to follow a research-based strategy.

    And then there are the effects that the economic crises caused by Buy-and-Hold have on our economic system. Investors who follow Buy-and-Hold strategies but are not yet retirement age lose large portions of their life savings and then cut back on spending, causing hundreds of thousands of businesses to fail and causing millions of workers to lose their jobs. How does that help anyone?

    I am going to continue posting honestly re the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.

    I wish you all good things.

    Rob

  30. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 7:13 am

    “Not every Buy-and-Hold retirement fails”

    Yet you can’t even show us just one that failed and you can’t show us one single VII that resulted in a successful retirement. Sorry, but I go with the track record and not just your interpretation of what you think will happen someday. Even your hero Shiller is in the market.

  31. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 7:44 am

    “Look at the peer-reviewed research that Wade and I co-authored and you’ll get the idea, Anonymous.”

    I don’t see anything that lists you as a co-author.

  32. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 9:31 am

    Your entire diatribe is what you think will happen “someday”. Someday we will see a historic crash. Someday Bogle will give his speech. Someday the New York Times will feature Rob Bennett on the front page. Someday Rob will save his financial bind when he receives a windfall from the con-men. Someday Robs detractors will go to prison. Someday Rob will be allowed back on the financial boards.

    Basically, you sit around and wait for “Someday”.

    Meanwhile, Americans everywhere have decided not to wait and take action (instead of waiting) and secure their financial future.

  33. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 9:34 am

    Yet you can’t even show us just one that failed and you can’t show us one single VII that resulted in a successful retirement. Sorry, but I go with the track record and not just your interpretation of what you think will happen someday. Even your hero Shiller is in the market.

    I don’t have records of every retirement that has taken place. But there obviously have been retirements that have failed. And I am the co-author of peer-reviewed research that shows that failing to exercise price discipline ALWAYS dramatically increases risk while also ALWAYS dramatically diminishing long-term returns. So I think it is fair to say that the promotion of Buy-and-Hold strategies has caused many failed retirements.

    The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade is based on the 147 years of historical return data available to us today. That IS the track record. Through the entire history of the stock market, exercising price discipline has been a plus. Following a Buy-and-Hold strategy has always been a negative. Get Rich Quick approaches hurt individual investors. And anything that hurts millions of investors eventually hurts us all collectively. The promotion of Buy-and-Hold strategies causes economic crises.

    Shiller is indeed my hero. As is Bogle. BOTH of them are in the market. But there are many different ways to be in the market. Shiller is not in the market in the same way that Bogle is in the market. Nor is Shiller in the market in the same way that I am in the market. I am not in the market at all today. Shiller is. His circumstances are different. And I believe that his understanding of how the market works is somewhat different than mine. We both believe that valuations affect long-term returns. But my belief that valuations affect long-term returns has probably led me to some beliefs that Shiller’s belief that valuations affect long-term returns has not led him to. What of it? He invests his money and I invest my money. That’s how it should be.

    I don’t say that everyone should invest in the same way. Everyone should invest in the way that he thinks best. I do say that everyone should post honestly. If Mel Linduaer says that he thinks Buy-and-Hold is best, he is doing the right thing because that is what he sincerely believes to be the case. If Rob Bennett says that he thinks Buy-and-Hold is best, he is committing financial fraud because Rob Bennett doesn’t think for two seconds that Buy-and-Hold is best. I should say what I think is best — Valuation-Informed Indexing.

    My sincere take.

    Rob

  34. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 9:48 am

    I don’t see anything that lists you as a co-author.

    And yet you know that that’s what I was. And you pretend otherwise.

    It is proper that my name is not on the paper because I do not possess the academic credentials needed to have my name on the paper. But it was also proper for Wade to be up-front and honest in his dealings with people by telling them that I was the primary developer and promoter of the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept for years before he came on the scene, that he learned most of what he knows about VII from me and that he thought that the VII concept was so important that he asked me to help write the paper with him and offered effusive praise for my contributions on numerous occasions. And then of course you Goons (with Bogle’s implicit support) threatened to destroy his career if he continued speaking honestly and he agreed to go to the Goon side so that he could continue to feed his family.

    Following the next crash, there will be millions of middle-class investors who will have lost 50 percent or more of their life savings as a result of this 15-year cover-up, the biggest act of financial fraud in the history of the United States. I will tell the story of what happened to those people and you will be prosecuted for your crimes and a jury will determine the length of your prison sentence. That’s how our system of justice works. I am 100 percent confident that our system of justice will do right by all of us in the end.

    Do I like it that our system does not produce instant results? Of course not. But no system does. And I do believe that our system is the best system on Planet Earth. I believe that it will produce the right result in time and I believe that that’s the best that can be done on this planet of flawed humans. So I will let the thing play out. I will continue to post honestly with sadness that so many lives are in the process of being unnecessarily destroyed but also with full cheerful confidence that we will all in days to come enjoy all the good that follows from Shiller’s “revolutionary” research findings of 1981.

    I hope that works for you, my good friend.

    Rob

  35. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 9:56 am

    Your entire diatribe is what you think will happen “someday”. Someday we will see a historic crash. Someday Bogle will give his speech. Someday the New York Times will feature Rob Bennett on the front page. Someday Rob will save his financial bind when he receives a windfall from the con-men. Someday Robs detractors will go to prison. Someday Rob will be allowed back on the financial boards.

    Basically, you sit around and wait for “Someday”.

    Meanwhile, Americans everywhere have decided not to wait and take action (instead of waiting) and secure their financial future.

    It’s not like I have any other options available to me, Anonymous. I care about my fellow community members. I believe that the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research is legitimate research. I am physically incapable of saying that I believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains a valuation adjustment. Thousands of people have looked at his study and not one has ever been able to identify a valuations adjustment in it. I cannot help by wonder why.

    I’ve done lots of things over the past 15 years. Lots and lots and lots of things. More than anyone else alive. By a factor of at least 20. I have done my part.

    If the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research is legitimate research (I believe that it is), we will see another stock crash in the next year or two or three. We saw in the crash of 2008 that many people become more open to listening to new ideas when they have seen a big portion of their life savings disappear. So I have good reason to believe that that will happen again following the next crash. When that happens, we will be able to open a few sites to honest posting re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. Once people see all the benefits of opening up a site to honest posting and permitting a learning experience to develop, more and more will follow the lead of those early sites and all of our lives will just get better and better and better as our collective knowledge of how stock investing works in the real world spreads and spreads and spreads.

    My normal human brain is not able to imagine any possible downside to this way of proceeding.

    Has your far superior Goon brain been able to come up with anything?

    Rob

  36. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 9:57 am

    “I don’t have records of every retirement that has taken place. But there obviously have been retirements that have failed”

    You said buy and hold never works, yet you cant even give us a link to even one failure. Big time fail.

  37. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:06 am

    You said buy and hold never works, yet you cant even give us a link to even one failure. Big time fail.

    The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade tells the tale, Anonymous. In the days following the next price crash, we will get that research paper featured on the front page of the New York Times and it will offer hope to millions of middle-class people who will have seen their lives all but destroyed by your huge age of financial fraud.

    People will need hope at that time. The front-page article on that hugely important research will be a big success, not a fail at all.

    My sincere take.

    Rob

  38. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:16 am

    “I’ve done lots of things over the past 15 years. Lots and lots and lots of things. ”

    And an infant soils lots and lots of diapers. Which doesn’t convince anyone that the infant is really on to something. Nor does it generate a dime of income.

    So based on real world results, your “lots of things” amount to exactly the same as a pile of soiled diapers.

  39. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:20 am

    Okay, Anonymous.

    I wish you all good things, in any event.

    Rob

  40. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:24 am

    “The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade tells the tale, Anonymous.”

    See, you still can’t point to one person that failed with buy and hold and you still lie about being a co-author, when everyone can see for themselves that you are lying. Yep. Big time fail.

  41. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:25 am

    Okay, Anonymous.

    Please take good care.

    Rob

  42. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:37 am

    “I’ve done lots of things over the past 15 years. Lots and lots and lots of things. ”

    And you were paid how much for this “work”, other than The $500 million you hope the tooth fairy brings?

  43. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:43 am

    People don’t just hand one money for no reason. People earn money by adding value to the world. I have added enormous value to the world with my work of the past 15 years. Nothing could be more clear. You Goons would obviously not have risked prison by threatening Wade Pfau if you didn’t see the huge power of the peer-reviewed research that we co-authored to change the world’s understanding of how stock investing works.

    I will collect my money, Anonymous. We have a system of justice that aids people in their collection of money owed them in circumstances like this and it is a good system. And $500 million is a lot of money. My family is going to be set for a long time to come.

    I am grateful for the opportunities that were opened to me as a result of the creation of this powerful new communications medium.

    Rob

  44. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:47 am

    “People don’t just hand one money for no reason. People earn money by adding value to the world. I have added enormous value to the world with my work of the past 15 years. ”

    People haven’t handed over money as they don’t see any value. You have gotten paid exactly what your opinions are worth. $ZERO.

  45. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:49 am

    We disagree.

    That said, I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.

    Rob

  46. Anonymous says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:51 am

    “I will collect my money, Anonymous. We have a system of justice that aids people in their collection of money owed them in circumstances like this and it is a good system. And $500 million is a lot of money. My family is going to be set for a long time to come.”

    People run scams all the time, trying to get paid. Most don’t work. You better plan on a backup plan for the sake of your family.

  47. Rob says

    December 10, 2017 at 10:53 am

    It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

    Rob

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    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

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