Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
I don’t see anyone saying there was an error other than you. Further, we would need the stock to loose around 97% of its current level for my numbers to shrink to your level.
The members of the committee that awarded Shiller his Nobel prize are saying that there was an error. No, they don’t say it directly and I do. That’s a plus for me. It is better to speak directly about such matters.
And Bernstein said that the Nobel prize was 2 percent at the top of the bubble. So he was saying there is an error. And of course Shiller has said indirectly that there is an error. And Wade Pfau has said that he views the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies as “dangerous.” They are dangerous because they are in error. And the thousands of our fellow community members who expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted at our boards were indirectly saying that those studies are in error.
And of course your yourself indirectly have said that the studies are in error through your behavior over the past 15 years. If you didn’t think the studies were in error, you obviously would not have behaved as you have.
And all of this will be widely discussed in the days following the next crash, when millions of middle-class people will see 50 percent of their life savings go “poof!” and will be looking to find out who is responsible so that they can hang those people from a tree.
If there is a worse retirement plan than landing in a prison cell for your remaining days, I have never heard of it, my good friend. Not this boy, you know? Any plan that lands you in a prison cell is a bad plan, in my assessment.
I’ll take the plan where I get a $500 million settlement and no prison sentence. Call me madcap.
Rob
http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/insights-on-using-the-withdrawal-rule-from-its-creator#comments
Bengen is asked about and comments about Wade, Shiller, Michael Kitces, FIRECalc, CAPE. There’s even a link to one of Wade’s papers (sadly, not the one you wrote.) This is an active comment thread, so there’s no excuse for you not jumping in.
But you don’t. How can you just sit on the sidelines? You say you have the most important job in the world. This is right in your freakin wheelhouse. If you stay silent now, then obviously nothing will ever rouse you from your hibernation.
I’m grateful for the link, Anonymous.
I have commented at hundreds of places. The problem is certainly not that I have not commented enough.
We have a problem as a society. Shiller provided us the last piece of the stock investing puzzle in 1981. Had he published his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings in 1961, there never would have been any Buy-and-Hold. But it didn’t happen that way. By the time Shiller showed that valuations affect long-term returns, we already had an entire industry built around Buy-and-Hold. All of the powerful and wealthy people who were making their living promoting Buy-and-Hold did not want their clients and readers and friends to realize that they had made a mistake. So they kept quiet about the far-reaching implications of what Shiller had done. They praised him, they patted him on the head, they patronized him, down the road a piece they even awarded him a Nobel prize. But they didn’t change any of their strategic recommendations to reflect his research findings. And, as time passed, it became harder and harder for them to acknowledge their mistake and thereby bring the cover-up to an end. It’s now been 36 years. It’s now not just hard to admit the mistake, as it would have been in 1981. It’s now very, very, very, very hard.
I did not cause any of this. I came along in 2002, when I saw that Greaney got the numbers wrong in his retirement study and told my friends at the Motley Fool’s Retire Early board. Hundreds of them saw right away how important that post was. They said that I had started the most important discussion ever held in that board’s history. Greaney threatened to kill family members of anyone who continued to post honestly and eventually he got the discussion shut down. Motley Fool made clear that they would not do anything to Greaney or any of his Goon supporters but that they would ban anyone who got on his bad side. So everyone who cared about the subject of early retirement left the board and a board that was once the pride of the site became a wasteland of nonsense. Similar things happened at lots of different places. And here we are.
I don’t think that we have any choice but to open the entire internet to honest posting re safe withdrawal rates and lots of other critically important investment-related topics. Shiller predicted in his book that the continued promotion of Buy-and-Hold strategies would lead to an economic crisis late in the first decade of the new Century, and, sure enough, we saw one. The economic crisis stirred up political frictions on both the left and the right that we still are suffering from today. Stocks are still priced at two times fair value. So we are still looking at a 50 percent price drop or more than that in the event that stocks continue in the future to perform anything at all as they always have in the past (every other bull/bear cycle in our nation’s history did not end until valuations dropped to one-half fair value). So we have a situation on our hands. We stand on the threshold of the biggest economic advance in our nation’s history. The peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau shows that we can reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent just by permitting honest posting on the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in this field.
I’ll tell you what. Go over to that thread and ask the people there if they would like Rob Bennett to come over and share his thoughts about how safe withdrawal rates work in a world in which valuations affect long-term returns. If Wade Pfau or Robert Shiller or Bill Bengen or Michael Kitces asks me to come over and join the discussion, I will be there in a jiffy. I love my country and I love all those friends of mine and I am 100 percent happy to help. I am not going to go over there uninvited so that you Goons can engage in your trickery and stir up trouble one more time. It serves no constructive purpose. Every person alive on Planet Earth benefits if we all learn how stock investing works in the real world. Show that you want to advance the discussion and that the other people participating in the discussion want to generate a learning experience for everyone involved and I am 100 percent in. I am not inclined at this moment in time to get involved without some assurances along those lines.
We are all in the same boat. We all benefit from learning about the new research. How about you show that in your posts? How about these experts that you refer to show that they want to see responsible behavior on the part of the people participating in the discussion and make clear that they will not tolerate death threats or demands for unjustified board bannings or thousands of acts of defamation or threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs? When we begin doing this the right way, we will make more progress in 15 hours than we have made in 15 years of letting you Goons run wild with your hate. We need civil and reasoned discussions for the discussions to bear good fruit. There are rules of civility that are followed in every field of human endeavor other than stock investing and that are reflected in our laws against financial fraud. Those rules are going to need to be given recognition in our discussions of what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research teach us about stock investing if our discussions are to bear good fruit in this area.
I am 100 percent confident that we will all pull together in the days following the next price crash. The people who you name love their country and, when they see the human misery caused by a deepening of the economic crisis, they are going to do what needs to be done. I wish they would do it today. It would be a huge plus for everyone concerned if they did it today. But you know what? I cannot make good things happen unless the laws of the United States are followed in the discussions that are held. That’s a necessary part of the equation. Show me that there has been a change of heart on the part of these people and I am in in two seconds. If there has not yet been a change of heart the best that I can promise you is that I will do the very best that I can do as soon as it appears to me that there has been a change in heart.
I hope that helps a small bit.
Rob
Hi Rob. Come join us.
Love,
Robert, Wade, Bill and Michael
So it’s official. Despite your claim that opening up the web to discussion about VII is the most important job in the world, you won’t do it. Someone else has to do it. You’re just going to sit and wait for invitations. And if they are humble enough, then maybe (just maybe) you will agree to participate.
That is probably the lamest thing I’ve ever heard. I’ve seen wheelchair-bound 95 year old ladies in nursing homes that had more ambition.
Well, at least we know where you stand.
Hi Rob. Come join us.
Love,
Robert, Wade, Bill and Michael
We’ll all be working together in the days following the next price crash, Anonymous.
The only difference is that there will be more human misery if we wait.
I vote for us all pulling together today.
But you know what? I only get one vote. Others get to decide what others do.
So we will have to wait a bit to see how things play out.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.
Rob
So it’s official. Despite your claim that opening up the web to discussion about VII is the most important job in the world, you won’t do it. Someone else has to do it. You’re just going to sit and wait for invitations. And if they are humble enough, then maybe (just maybe) you will agree to participate.
That is probably the lamest thing I’ve ever heard. I’ve seen wheelchair-bound 95 year old ladies in nursing homes that had more ambition.
Well, at least we know where you stand.
Okay, Anonymous.
I wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob the Lame
Uh oh, Rob. Bill Bengen points out the research and data that says you are wrong and that VII is a failure:
“I have not studied in great detail the correlation between Shiller CAPE and withdrawal rate. However, Michael Kitces, a celebrated financial planner who has also done some important research in the area of withdrawal rates, produced an interesting chart some years ago. It showed a strong negative correlation between CAPE and each year’s safe withdrawal rates. So, I am not surprised at the conclusion that Wade reached, although I believe he may have been the first to quantify the “boost” to SAFEMAX by using a timing strategy.
However, for those who wait for a low enough CAPE to invest fully in stocks, it has been a frustrating 25 years, as CAPE has been below its average of about 16 only about 25% of the time during that span (if that much). Today, of course, CAPE stands at more than twice its long-term average. It will be interesting to see if it does indeed “mean revert”, and even drop below its long term average. The only time that has happened in the last 25 years was for a few weeks in 2009. ”
“So, I am not surprised at the conclusion that Wade reached, although I believe he may have been the first to quantify the “boost” to SAFEMAX by using a timing strategy.”
Wow. WADE was the first. That’s gonna leave a mark.
Uh oh, Rob. Bill Bengen points out the research and data that says you are wrong and that VII is a failure:
“I have not studied in great detail the correlation between Shiller CAPE and withdrawal rate. However, Michael Kitces, a celebrated financial planner who has also done some important research in the area of withdrawal rates, produced an interesting chart some years ago. It showed a strong negative correlation between CAPE and each year’s safe withdrawal rates. So, I am not surprised at the conclusion that Wade reached, although I believe he may have been the first to quantify the “boost” to SAFEMAX by using a timing strategy.
However, for those who wait for a low enough CAPE to invest fully in stocks, it has been a frustrating 25 years, as CAPE has been below its average of about 16 only about 25% of the time during that span (if that much). Today, of course, CAPE stands at more than twice its long-term average. It will be interesting to see if it does indeed “mean revert”, and even drop below its long term average. The only time that has happened in the last 25 years was for a few weeks in 2009. ”
That last paragraph is power-packed stuff, Anonymous. I am grateful to you for sharing it with us.
The claim that the last 25 years have been “frustrating” for Valuation-Informed Indexers is true only from the perspective of a Buy-and-Holder. Yes, if we have missed out on gains, then it could be viewed as frustrating. But the entire question in dispute is the question he puts on the table two sentences later when he questions whether prices will eventually mean revert or even drop below their long-term average. If that happens, the math shows that the Valuation-Informed Indexers will be far, far ahead of the Buy-and-Holders, too far ahead for the Buy-and-Holders to entertain any realistic expectations of ever catching up.
Do I believe that prices are going to mean revert? 100 percent. I have never been more sure of anything in my life. Could I be wrong? 100 percent. I am one of those darn humans. We get them wrong all the time. All of us do. That includes me.
We should be having a national debate re these questions, Anonymous. I can believe that Bengen truly believes that prices are NOT going to mean-revert. I think that he would pass a lie detector test on that question. But I know that I would fail a lie detector test if I said that I believe that we are not going to mean-revert. I am going to continue to post honestly. I am going to continue to say that I believe that prices are going to mean-revert and that Valuation-Informed Indexing is going to show itself superior to Buy-and-Hold one more time, just as it has been doing for 150 years of U.S. stock market history now.
I don’t think that Michael Kitces shares my views 100 percent. But I don’t think that Micheal Kitces shares Bill Bengens’s views 100 percent either.
I don’t believe that Wade Pfau shares my views 100 percent. But I don’t think that Wade Pfau shares Bill Bengens views 100 percent either.
I don’t believe that Robert Shiller shares my views 100 percent. But I don’t think that Robert Shiller shares Bill Bengens views 100 percent either.
Each of these people should be sharing his views precisely as he holds them. That’s how we learn together over time. For that learning together process to work, we all need to speak out in clear and firm and uncompromising terms re the financial fraud stuff. No death threats. Not ever again. No demands for unjustified board bannings. Not ever again. No thousands of acts of defamation. Not ever again. No threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Not ever again. Re that one, there should be 100 percent unity.
This is my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours, old friend.
Rob
Wow. WADE was the first. That’s gonna leave a mark.
The only mark that has been left on me during the 15 years has been the mark left by your thousands of acts of financial fraud. That mark has been felt by every person alive in the United States today. We are all in this together and your criminal acts have held each and every one of us back in very, very serious ways. I am 100 percent confident that we will not be seeing any further criminal acts starting on the day that this story is written up on the front page of the New York Times and word of your prison sentence goes viral.
But we’ll see, you know? I have been wrong before. If it were happening again, I would probably be the last to know. We are just going to have to wait to see how it all plays out.
My best wishes.
Rob
Wade might be “written up on the front page of the New York Times” someday. He might even earn $500 million. All because he was the first to quantify a timing strategy based on CAPE. That is, first as far as Bill Bengen or anyone else who matters knows. If someone else was actually first, well, who knows and who cares? Wade put himself out there. He didn’t hide in his safe space.
When the research that Wade and I co-authored is written up on the front page of the New York Times, there will be millions of people asking why a national debate was not launched on that grounds-breaking research within days of when it was published. When the story of why that didn’t happen is told, you Goons will be sent off to prison cells for the rest of your lives.
Not because I am a meanie who tattled on you. Because a failed retirement is a serious life setback and Greaney should have corrected his study within 24 hours of learning of the errors in it and there never should have been a single death threat put forward in his defense or a single demand for a single unjustified board banning or a single act of defamation or a single threat to get a single academic researcher fired from a single job.
But we’ll see, you know? It is my intent to stay on the right side of the felony line. I have never in the fifteen years given any other possibility even two seconds of consideration.
All that said, I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors.
Rob
Yes, I get that you are now 100% fixated on punishing me, rather than pursuing your own goals. If Wade’s paper gets written up in the New York Times, he gets all the glory and rewards. The first step is getting recognized experts like Bengen to acknowledge that he was the first. And that step is checked off.
Of course, Wade could wave his hands and say “Shucks no, all this glory belongs to Rob Bennett. He’s the real brains behind any CAPE-based timing strategy.” Yes, that’s the ticket. That’s what will happen.
Or you could take two minutes right now to set Bengen straight. Nope, you said that’s not an option.
Is Bengen, Kitces or a Pfau holding you back from posting in their comments section? Have they made death threats or job threats? What is holding you back from having this conversation with them that you seem to desperately want?
Is Bengen, Kitces or a Pfau holding you back from posting in their comments section? Have they made death threats or job threats? What is holding you back from having this conversation with them that you seem to desperately want?
I’ve had conversations with all three of them, Anonymous. Some of those conversations were highly productive. I have reported on many of them at the blog here.
I certainly don’t rule out having additional conversations with them. I expect that I will. Certainly in the days following the next crash. And probably at times in the days prior to the crash.
But there is only so far that we can go until the story has been written up on the front page of the New York Times. People are afraid to have their careers destroyed. People are afraid to have you Goons come after them. People feel funny about noting that the biggest names in the field are involved in a massive act of financial fraud. The ordinary thing is to seek the support of the biggest names in the field because those people can help one advance one’s own career. We are in a weird situation where the biggest names in the field are involved in a massive act of financial fraud. No?
It’s all going to come out in time. Can it come out now? That’s the question. If there is something that I can say that will help get us all to a better place, I obviously want to say that thing. But I have said a lot of things at a lot of places already. I think it might be more helpful if some others got involved.
Are you willing to come out with a clear statement in OPPOSITION to the massive act of financial fraud? That would help.
Rob
Yes, I get that you are now 100% fixated on punishing me, rather than pursuing your own goals. If Wade’s paper gets written up in the New York Times, he gets all the glory and rewards. The first step is getting recognized experts like Bengen to acknowledge that he was the first. And that step is checked off.
Of course, Wade could wave his hands and say “Shucks no, all this glory belongs to Rob Bennett. He’s the real brains behind any CAPE-based timing strategy.” Yes, that’s the ticket. That’s what will happen.
Or you could take two minutes right now to set Bengen straight. Nope, you said that’s not an option.
Anytime that anyone writes honestly about what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us all about how stock investing works, it benefits each and every one of us who is trying to do the same. There is no limit on the credit that can be handed out. Millions of investors need access to accurate information. Thousands of investment advisers want to give it to them. The thing that is standing in their way is a Wall of Ignorance. People cannot believe the realities — that we now know of a way to invest in stocks that is far less risky and that allows people to retire far earlier in life — because they just sound too good to be true. Anyone who does anything to knock down that wall is helping all of us in a big way.
Say that Wade does as you say. I am not saying that I think he would — I do not. But just say for purposes of discussion that he did. That would be an absolute boon for me. If the study that Wade and I prepared gets publicized — regardless of who gets the credit for it — it instantly becomes easier to tell the truth about stock investing at hundreds of different sites. So all of my stuff — I’ve developed a lot of it over the years — gets out. How does that hurt me?
You always talk as if the key to getting credit is being smarter than other people. That’s not the reality here. Most Buy-and-Holders possess more than enough intellectual capacity to do everything that I have done. So why am I 15 years ahead of most Buy-and-Holders? They are not willing to stand up to the crowd. So they play dumb. It’s not that they ARE dumb, it’s that they play dumb because they want to be popular at a time when the key to being popular is encouraging people’s Buy-and-Hold fantasies. I haven’t been playing dumb for 15 years now. So I have a mountain of material with my name on it that is real and research-based. Anything that helps me get that material out — and anything that breaks down the Wall of Ignorance does that — helps me.
I cannot lose, Anonymous. I placed myself on the side of the American people. The only way that I lose is if the American people lose. And, if the American people lose, we all go down. Getting credit for my investing ideas will be the least of my concerns in that event. I lose if the entire economic system goes down. I have taken a bet that we are going to pull through this thing. But, if we pull through, there is no way that I can lose. I have too much material. It is too good (not because I am so smart, because Shiller really did achieve something “revolutionary” in scope and I devoted 15 years of my life to mining the insights that he opened to us all). I am going to get all the credit that I could possibly want presuming that the entire economic system does not collapse, which is the one real risk that I am facing. But of course that one gets all of us if a black card comes up.
I don’t have any concerns at all about who gets credit. Do you know who is going to get credit after the New York Times story comes out? You Goons! You Goons have helped me lots of times, dozens of times. I am going to tell that story. I think it is a very cool reality that Shiller’s work is so amazing that even the sworn enemies of the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research cannot help but bring out points in connection with it that help us all. That’s amazing. You Goons don’t want to help. But the reality is that you have. On numerous occasions. And there is no reason in the world why I should be reluctant to give you credit for the good that you have done. When you do good, you help people understand how stock investing works. When you help people understand how stock investing works, you help people see the value of my work. You have helped me. I am grateful to you. I am happy to give you credit. So be it, you know?
I have taken a bet on the future of this country. I love this country. I think we are going to pull through. If we do, I make out like a bandit. Good for me, you know? That’s how it is supposed to go in this country. People help us all out and they are rewarded for it. That’s the wonderful system. That’s what keeps the wheels spinning in a forward direction. I love the way it works and I love being a part of all the magic in this particular case. You can’t beat the feeling. It’s a thrill. Doing well by doing good.
Wade is going to get a mountain of credit on the other side. He deserves it. I think it will be fantastic to see him get the credit he deserves. And Shiller is going to get lots of credit. And Kitces. And Bogle. And Bernstein. And Swedroe. And you Goons. There is going to be credit coming out of our ears.
No worries.
Except for the deepening of the economic crisis and the possible Second Great Depression. I don’t want to come off as glib re that aspect of the question. That one truly worries me. All the credit in the world won’t help me if our economic system collapses. So I want to do everything in my power to help us out re that one. But of course there is only so much I can do in that department and I have been working that one hard for a long, long time now.
But no worries whatsoever re the credit thing. We all are going to do just fine re that particular matter. I am 100 percent sure.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
So, if a story comes out in The New York Times, giving Wade Pfau credit, but you get no recognition whatsoever and nothing ever happens to the goons, you would be okay with that.
I would be thrilled.
The only issue I have re you Goons is that I want the American people to overcome you. If there is a story in the New York Times giving Wade credit for Valuation-Informed Indexing, then there is a story in the New York Times on Valuation-Informed Indexing and we have overcome you. That’s victory for all of us.
If we all win, we all win. I’m one of us, you know? So, if we all win, I win. I can live with that.
The only way you Goons can win is if we all lose. Which would be unfortunate for you because, if we all lose, you lose.
‘
If our economic system collapses, we all lose. You Goons will probably be jumping up and down about that one because it will mean that I lose. Your hate blinds you to the fact that it means that you lose too.
We are all in this together, Anonymous. I can’t lose without you losing too. You can’t win without me winning too. There are no two sides when it comes to learning how stock investing works in the real world.
Fight harder, team-mate!
Rob
“There are no two sides when it comes to learning how stock investing works in the real world.”
We already know how it works. It really is no mystery.
If you were confident in what you think you know, we never would have seen a death threat.
If we already knew everything that we will ever know about stock investing, we would not be handing out new Ph.D.’s every year. If we already knew everything that we will ever know about stock investing, there would be no journals publishing new peer-reviewed research. If we already knew everything that we will ever know about stock investing, investing discussion boards would not permit new posts — they would just advise any interested readers to read the posts put up until the day when every last thing about the subject became known.
You are kidding yourself. We don’t know it all today and we never will. Discussion boards are for learning. And, following the next price crash, we are going to unite as a nation and have you Goons sent to prison so that they can be used for that purpose once again.
My sincere take.
Rob
“If you were confident in what you think you know, we never would have seen a death threat.”
I am confident and have never seen any other death threat, other than the one you made.
Okay, Anonymous.
Please take good care in any event.
Rob
“So, if a story comes out in The New York Times, giving Wade Pfau credit, but you get no recognition whatsoever and nothing ever happens to the goons, you would be okay with that.”
“I would be thrilled.”
No credit? No $500 mill. You used to care about that.
Once the story comes out in the New York Times, every site on the internet will be opened to honest posting re the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research. There will be credit coming in from 500 different directions for all of us who have argued that honest posting should be permitted. And with the credit will come mountains of money. What’s the freakin’ downside?
There’s never been any way that you Goons could stop the History Train from moving forward. The benefits of knowing the true safe withdrawal rate are just too great and there are just too many people affected. The thing that amazes me is how long you have managed to pull this off. On the morning of May 13, 2002, I gave you two days, three days at the outside. In a few months, you will cross the 16-year mark. I think it would be fair to say that the joke has been on me re that one. But your Campaign of Terror against our board and blog communities is still a doomed effort. There’s no amount of intimidation that can change the core realities in the long term, not when it comes to taking valuations into consideration when making strategic choices and not when it comes to winning recognition of the right to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics.
Or so Rob Bennett sincerely believes, you know? A fellow who has been known to get one wrong from time to time.
We will have to wait a bit to see how it all plays out. I will put forward whatever words I can think of to get your prison sentence reduced a wee bit. And the members of your jury will do their thing. And hopefully our economic system will make it through to the other side in one piece. And, when your debt to society has been paid, you will be back at the boards and we will be fast friends again. We’ll have a pitcher of beer together and laugh about all the crazy stuff that went down in the old days. Does that not sound like the most realistic scenario for how this thing will play out?
Rob
“There will be credit coming in from 500 different directions for all of us who have argued that honest posting should be permitted. And with the credit will come mountains of money.”
Yes, mountains of money. Hard to argue against such a detailed plan. But the question was “What if you don’t get any credit?” First answer: “I would be thrilled.” Now it’s, don’t worry, you’ll get credit. And mountains of money. Somehow.
For years you insisted you personally would receive precisely $500 million. And your site would be the #1 site on the web. Now it’s some credit, some money. Feeling a little unsure?
The suggestion put forward was that I might not get credit in the New York Times article itself. I very, very much doubt that anything like that would happen. But if it did, it wouldn’t matter because I would still be getting credit from 500 different places once the internet was opened to honest posting and your prison sentence was announced.
Yes, I am feeling terribly, terribly, terribly unsure. Is it too late to take Greaney up on his kind offer?
Wavering Rob
“On the morning of May 13, 2002, I gave you two days, three days at the outside.”
John gave you the answer to your question in about an hour. Wade Pfau already pointed that out. Ashistory shows, this was a discussion that caused you embarrassment and at the end of the thread, we see you apologized for your error. Since that time, you have tried to rewrite history.
Okay, Anonymous.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, in any event.
Rob the Embarrassed
Okay, so it’s $500 million from 500 directions. A nice round million per direction. But since you refuse to post on other sites (without an engraved invitation – there’s a chicken or egg problem in itself) to claim your due credit, how are those people going to find you?
Virtually all of your plan seems to depend on magic.
The plan depends on people caring enough about the survival of our economic system to stand up to you Goons.
Thousands have spoken up once or twice. But few are willing to stand fast in the face of a level of abusiveness never before witnessed in the history of the United States.
Will the arrival of a Second Great Depression stiffen the spines of millions?
I say “yes.”
Whether it’s yes or no, I am physically incapable of saying that Greaney’s study contains an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. So I am on the same side either way. But if the answer is “yes,” my side is the winning side. If the answer is “no,” my side is the losing side. For you Goons to win in the long term, the entire economic system has to collapse (presuming that the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in this field is legitimate). I think it would be fair to say that you Goons are not thinking 100 percent clearly.
Anyway, that’s where things stand. 100 percent love on my end and 0 percent willingness to say that Greaney’s study contains a valuation adjustment.
And 100 percent confidence that time will tell the tale, one way or another.
Rob
As always, you completely ignored a direct question. How will people find you to give you their money?
The question doesn’t make any sense.
Once every site on the internet is opened to honest posting on the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in this field, I will be posting at every site on the internet. I won’t be hard to find.
I am hard to find today because I won’t go along with the cover-up and so you Goons don’t want people to find me. I have a funny feeling that your powers to keep the scam going will be greatly diminished when you are sitting in a prison cell.
But we’ll see, you know?
Rob the Invisible
Your answer doesn’t make any sense (hardly a surprise.)
The Bengen comment section is open right now. It won’t ever get any more open than that. You refuse to lift a finger to advance your own cause.
And yes, you are wavering. After 16 years, you should be wavering. 16 weeks would have been enough for a normal person to question their course of action. Especially when exactly zero people lend their support.
Thousands lent their support. That’s all in the Post Archives.
Those thousands were not willing to stand fast in the face of death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. They rationalize not standing firm just as I rationalize not standing up to Greaney from May 1999 through May 2002.
It took Greaney’s smear campaign against Wanderer to make me see how wrong I had been not to post with complete honesty. It took his death threats and the 200 recommendations logged in support of those death threats to confirm for me that the Buy-and-Hold road was not the road that I wanted to be on. Will the Second Great Depression that is likely to follow from the next price crash be the thing that will scare Bogle and Pfau and Shiller and Kitces and hundreds of others into speaking plainly and firmly and clearly in support of what they truly believe re what the last 36 years of peer-reviewed research in this field teaches us?
I believe that it will do the trick. I believe that these guys will feel liberated to finally be able to speak honestly re these matters. I believe that the things that we all will learn in those days will be enough to bring on the greatest period of economic growth in our nation’s history.
But even if I am wrong, I will be proud to be able to say that I stood in support of my country from the morning of May 13, 2002, forward without for two seconds ever giving a thought to going along with what you Goons demand of me. I love my country. That runs deep. Staying on the right side of the felony line means something to me.
I wish you Goons all the best. But there are limits, you know? Saying that Greaney’s retirement study contains a valuation adjustment is on the wrong side of the line for me.
And that’s that. That’s the one that never changes. That’s the one that never had more than a zero chance of changing dating back to the morning of May 13, 2002.
And no apologies offered from this boy. None whatsoever.
None ever even considered.
Rob
“Thousands lent their support. That’s all in the Post Archives.”
Except it isn’t. And even if it was, “Post Archives” do nothing to advance your cause. Only you can do that. But you refuse. You insist on waiting for vaguely defined events that are completely outside your control. No successful person has ever done that.
Some things have to wait their time, Anonymous.
Learning how stock investing works is the biggest advance that we have ever achieved in the personal finance realm. I very much want to see that achievement realized by every investor on the planet. I have very much wanted to see that dating back to the morning of May 13, 2002. I dream about it.
But you know what? The timing is not in my hands. There are 15 years of Post Archives showing that. The message is pretty darn clear at this point in the proceedings.
Prior to 1981, we could’t all learn about stock investing works in the real world because the peer-reviewed research showing us had not yet been published. From 1982 forward, we have been blocked by the Get Rich Quick impulse that kicks in when we experience an out-of-control bull market. Following the next price crash, conditions will be perfect. We will have the peer-reviewed research that we need to make sense of this stock investing stuff and we will be free of the Get Rich Quick fantasies that hold us back for so long as prices remain at insanely high levels. That will be our big opportunity to improve the lives of millions in a very big way in a very short amount of time. I will be proud and happy and honored and excited to be a part of it. It is the way in which we manage to take advantage of opportunities like that that makes our country so great, in my assessment.
We’ll see, you know?
I certainly wish you the best of luck with it.
Rob
“There are 15 years of Post Archives showing that.”
There is difference between you making claims for 15 years versus someone else supporting you and providing documentation for 15 years. All you have is just your opinions, just like anyone else.
Opinions backed by zero years of peer-reviewed research count as much as opinions backed by 36 years of peer-reviewed research.
Opinions backed by death threats and other insanely abusive tactics count as much as opinions backed by civil and reasoned argument.
That makes perfect sense, Anonymous.
Please mark me down as a guy who believes that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage and that, yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!
My best wishes to you.
Rob
It is all just your opinion of what you think the research says and just allegations of death threats, etc.
In the business community, all leaders are surrounded by people that provide wise council. Without this support, it is very easy for a leader to have a distorted view of the world, resulting in faulty think and wrong decisions.
Don’t you think you should seek out wise council to help you get back on track?
It is all just your opinion of what you think the research says and just allegations of death threats, etc.
That’s true of every single person who has ever posted to a discussion board, Anonymous.
If you Goons wanted to have a sign-off line added to every one of my posts that said: “Everything said in this post is Rob Bennett’s opinion and he has acknowledged that it is possible that he is wrong about all of it,” I could go along with that.
But I cannot go along with me agreeing to say “Greaney’s study contains a valuation adjustment” because I do not believe that to be so.
There’s a difference between those two. One is me acknowledging that I could be wrong. The other is me saying something that I know to be false to appease some internet Goon.”
I can acknowledge that there is a possibility that I am wrong about anything that I say. But I cannot put my name to a post that states something that I believe with my entire mind, heart and soul to be false.
I hope that helps a small bit.
Rob
In the business community, all leaders are surrounded by people that provide wise council. Without this support, it is very easy for a leader to have a distorted view of the world, resulting in faulty think and wrong decisions.
Don’t you think you should seek out wise council to help you get back on track?
The laws of the United States reflect our core beliefs as a people. It’s not those of us saying that the laws of the United States should be followed who are off track. It is those who are violating those laws who are off track.
My sincere take.
Rob
“The laws of the United States reflect our core beliefs as a people. It’s not those of us saying that the laws of the United States should be followed who are off track. It is those who are violating those laws who are off track.”
Yet wise counsel might tell you that this view is distorted as well. It seems you don’t want to consider anything that does not fir your narrative.
I am not going to violate the laws of my country under any circumstances. You are right to perceive that I reject out of hand any possibility that I might ever say that I believe that Greaney included a valuation adjustment in his study. I am not open to “counsel” re that question. The fact that a country that I love has elected to make financial fraud a felony tells me all that I need to know re that one. The laws of the United States re these matters are my “counsel.” I am 100 percent sure that we will all be following that counsel in the days following the next price crash, just as we today in all fields other than the investing advice field. If there were not so much money to be made pushing the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage, I am 100 percent sure that we would be following that counsel in the investing advice field.
Buy-and-Hold is a money thing, Anonymous. I don’t think it was that prior to 1981. Prior to 1981, the belief in Buy-and-Hold was genuine. And even today there are millions of good and smart people who believe in it in at least one important sense — they follow it themselves. But no one truly believes that death threats are appropriate or that demands for unjustified board bannings are appropriate or that thousands of acts of defamation are appropriate or that threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs are appropriate. People go along with that garbage for the same reason why people in the film industry did not turn in Harvey Weinstein for so many years — they don’t want to see their careers destroyed. I want nothing to do with the criminal stuff. I want to expose that stuff and thereby bring it to a full and complete stop. I don’t believe that people who were told to keep quiet about Weinstein were receiving “wise counsel.”
I mean — Yucko!
Rob
You are adamantly defending your right not to have to listen to anyone about anything.
Yes, you have that right. Just as everyone else has the right to ignore you. The problem is you don’t really agree with that part. From your perspective, everyone is required to listen to you, while you continue to ignore everyone else. This is unfortunate, since everyone is falling short of your requirement. Must be frustrating.
It’s both frustrating and exciting.
The good news here is 50 times more good than the bad news here is bad. So it’s 50 times more exciting than it is frustrating.
But, yes, there is a frustrating side to it. I don’t say different.
Rob
“But, yes, there is a frustrating side to it. I don’t say different.”
Yeah, narcissism is tough when no one listens. Trump figured it out. You should research him more.
Okay, Anonymous.
Rob
“But, yes, there is a frustrating side to it. I don’t say different.”
So you agree with the previous contributor that you feel that you have the right to ignore everyone else, but that people don’t have the right to ignore you.
Did you let that sink in? Do you see the hypocrisy? You say you want to have a discussion, but that is not true. You want your opinion to be heard and accepted, but you are not interested in anyone having a different opinion.
It sounds like the only “job” you are qualified for is the next dictator of North Korea.
I obviously don’t agree with any of that even a tiny bit, Anonymous.
Everyone has a right to ignore me.
No one has a right to ignore the laws of the country in which they live.
Using death threats to cover up an error in a retirement study is against U.S. law. Using demands for unjustified board bannings to cover up an error in a retirement study is against U.S. law. Using thousands of acts of defamation to cover up an error in a retirement study is against U.S. law. Using threats to get an academic researcher fired from his job to cover up an error in a retirement study is against U.S. law.
People who disagree with me within the constraints of U.S. law are helping me and all the people listening in by putting my ideas to a challenge. People who violate U.S. law are hurting themselves and others by violating social norms that are important enough to all of us to be reflected in our laws. I see a big difference between those two.
I want my opinion to be heard by those who care to listen to it but not by any who do not care to listen to it. And I want my opinion to be accepted by those persuaded by my arguments but not by any not persuaded by the arguments. I love it when people express other opinions but only when they stay within the confines of the laws that apply. When you Goons put forward death threats and all the rest, you turn what could be a positive (constructive discussion of important differences) into a negative (criminal acts of financial fraud).
That’s it. That’s the entire story.
I could be wrong on the substantive points. I don’t think I am. But I could be. If I were wrong on the substantive points, I probably wouldn’t see it. Self-deception would be causing me not to understand points that I needed to understand to make complete sense of things. So I need people on the other side trying to poke holes in my arguments. Those people are helping us all.
But I don’t see any possibility that I am wrong on the process points, on my belief that none of us should advance death threats or demands for unjustified board bannings or thousands of acts of defamation or threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. My entire life’s work is rooted in a belief that the laws of this country relating to free expression of differing ideas are good laws. I am a journalist. Those social norms mean something to me. So, no, I don’t have an open mind on the question of whether people should work hard to remain on the right side of the felony line or not.
Is every policeman who arrests someone and places him in a prison cell a dictator? I sure don’t think so. The site administrator had a responsibility to arrest you in a very small way by removing you from the Motley Fool site when you advanced your first death threat. If he had acted on that responsibility, you wouldn’t be on your way to landing in a prison cell today. It was by not taking his responsibilities seriously that he caused you 1,000 times more trouble than he would have caused you by banning you from a discussion board for a few months. By acting on his responsibilities, he would have liberated you in a very important way. By acting on his responsibilities, he would have freed you from your own self-destructiveness before it was able to do more harm to you.
Our laws are not the laws of dictators. Our laws are there to limit our behavior in cases where our behavior threatens to get so out of hand as to destroy us and others. We flawed humans need those limits. You Goons have hurt yourselves and others in very, very, very serious ways with your insanely abusive behavior. As a society we need to act on our responsibilities to free both you and millions of middle-class investors to live far better lives in the future than you and they have lived in the recent past.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, my dear Goon friend.
Rob
“So I need people on the other side trying to poke holes in my arguments.”
People have been doing that for 16 years. You’ve ignored 100% of those arguments. Which is what narcissists do. Now you admit that you refuse to even post your arguments anywhere else, unless they seek you out and send you an invitation first. You demand being treated like an extraordinary person, which is what all narcissists thing they are.
Do you even understand how self-defeating your behavior is? You’re so consumed by anger and frustration that you don’t know which way is up.
Ummm….
Angry Rob
I am just waiting for the day when you say this has been one big joke and you have pulled off one of the longest running gags on people. Otherwise, this has all been one big sad case of mental instability.
That makes sense, Anonymous.
Rob
Rob,
I know you so desperately want me to cross that felony line and say I agree with you, but I am not going to commit fraud. No how, no way, not this boy. I have got this tiger by the tail and we are about to cross the one yard line, just beyond that big black mountain. That’s right, no matter how many death threat, job threats or acts of defamation, I am not going to join you and Bernie in prison. Instead, I am going to wait for my big article in the New York Times, My Nobel Prize and my $5 Trillion dollars that everyone owes me.
I wish you the best of luck with it, my good friend.
Rob