Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
I don’t see anyone saying there was an error other than you. Further, we would need the stock to loose around 97% of its current level for my numbers to shrink to your level.
The members of the committee that awarded Shiller his Nobel prize are saying that there was an error. No, they don’t say it directly and I do. That’s a plus for me. It is better to speak directly about such matters.
And Bernstein said that the Nobel prize was 2 percent at the top of the bubble. So he was saying there is an error. And of course Shiller has said indirectly that there is an error. And Wade Pfau has said that he views the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies as “dangerous.” They are dangerous because they are in error. And the thousands of our fellow community members who expressed a desire that honest posting be permitted at our boards were indirectly saying that those studies are in error.
And of course your yourself indirectly have said that the studies are in error through your behavior over the past 15 years. If you didn’t think the studies were in error, you obviously would not have behaved as you have.
And all of this will be widely discussed in the days following the next crash, when millions of middle-class people will see 50 percent of their life savings go “poof!” and will be looking to find out who is responsible so that they can hang those people from a tree.
If there is a worse retirement plan than landing in a prison cell for your remaining days, I have never heard of it, my good friend. Not this boy, you know? Any plan that lands you in a prison cell is a bad plan, in my assessment.
I’ll take the plan where I get a $500 million settlement and no prison sentence. Call me madcap.