Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“So we are close. Very close…When I have a community of people helping me out, amazing and magical things will happen. ”
You’ve been saying that for many years. Even back in the days before you were banned from everywhere.
But after all this time, there’s still no community. Nothing amazing. No magic. So I guess you weren’t that close after all.
We’re close.
If one large site started reporting on what has happened over the past 16 years, we would see huge change in a short amount of time. We have seen thousands of our fellow community members express a desire that honest posting be permitted. Shiller published his research in 1981. We didn’t even have that in the days when the Buy-and-Hold strategy was developed. We have published posting rules at virtually every investing site prohibiting the posting tactics that the Buy-and-Holders have employed to block debate. That’s huge. That shows what is in our hearts. That shows how as a people we believe things should be done. That’s what the Buy-and-Holders are ultimately up against — our fundamental beliefs about how new ideas should be permitted to grow over time in this country. Shiller was awarded a Nobel prize. Could we send a bigger sign as to how we want things to go? I have had numerous professors tell me that they are now including my ideas about how stock investing works in the courses they teach in universities. We have had numerous researchers indicate that they would like to be free to do honest work in this field. We have even had a good number of the Wall Street Con Men slip in some honest advice along with the Buy-and-Hold garbage. That sort of thing doesn’t just happen by accident. Those people have consciences. Those consciences are going to be exerting an even stronger pull in the days following the next price crash. I mean, give me a freakin’ break.
It has taken longer than I thought it would take. A LOT longer. You’ve got me re that one.
But it remains a reality that we are very close. The issue is no less important today than it was on the morning of May 13, 2002. So this is certainly no time to be giving up hope on the future of this country.
We have a secret weapon, Anonymous. The Buy-and-Holders. The Buy-and-Holders love their country too. What do you think they are going to do in the days following the next price crash? They are going to flip to the side of the American people. If they felt that they could do it today, they would do it today. As soon as people start sensing that it is safe to tell the truth about what the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us about how stock investing works in the real world, there is going to be a run for the exits in Buy-and-Hold World. The thing will go viral at that time.
There has to a transition from one paradigm to another. The natural thing would have been for us to launch a national debate in 1981, when Shiller published his “revolutionary” research findings, and then for people to gradually make the transition to Valuation-Informed Indexing as they learned more. That would have been 100 percent groovy for every single person involved. It didn’t happen that way. But that doesn’t mean that the transition is not going to take place. It just means that, after 37 years, there is a huge amount of pent-up energy that thousands of people in this field want to put to use telling millions of investors the long-covered-up realities of how stock investing works.
When Bogle flips, it’s over. What the heck is Lindauer going to be able to do to hold back the tide once Bogle flips? There will be nothing that he will be able to do at that time. It will be over. I think Bogle will flip. If Bogle doesn’t, someone else will. It could be Bernstein. It could be Swedroe. It could be Schultheis. It could be Pfau. It could be Richards. It could be lots of people.
There are lots of people who work in this field who love their country, Anonymous. You can put forward your threats of physical violence and your threats of career destruction from now until doomsday, but there comes a point when you will not be able to hold back the love that many people who work in this field feel for their country. I think that all the magic is going to begin happening in the days following the next price crash. But we’ll see, you know? It is my sincere belief that we are very close indeed.
Eyes-on-the-Prize Rob
Uh oh. Another article from JD Roth that says we should avoid get rich quick timing schemes like VII and stick with buy and hold.
https://www.getrichslowly.org/bull-bear-markets/
Is JD one of the goons?
Thanks for the link, Anonymous. I thought the article was well worth reading.
I don’t agree with your characterization of what J.D. said in the article. Your version is a cartoon version. He made a comment that is generally in tune with Buy-and-Hold, that the market generally goes up (that’s certainly true) and that there is a risk of missing out on gains if you avoid the market at certain times (that’s true of many timing schemes, which are truly dangerous, but I of course don’t think it is at all true of Valuation-Informed Indexing, which is backed by 37 years of peer-reviewed research). At the end, you’ll note that he says that he could understand why some people think we are at a dangerous spot today. He doesn’t endorse taking steps in response to those concerns. But I would call those words somewhat open-minded words. And of course that’s a very, very good thing. We need to hear more open-minded words re these matters.
You ask whether J.D. is a Goon. I have certainly seen him display Goon tendencies. That’s unfortunate. But I have also seen him do lots of wonderful stuff, completely anti-Goon stuff. So he’s a study in contradictions, you know? In that respect, he’s like all of us. We all have a Get Rich Quick urge within us. It is that Get Rich Quick urge that makes stock investing risky, in my view. It is that Get Rich Quick urge that makes Buy-and-Hold so popular at a time when we have 37 years of peer-reviewed research pointing us to a far better path. I wish that J.D. Roth were completely immune to Get Rich Quick thinking. He could change the world if he were. But of course I wish that I were completely immune to it too, you know? And I wish that you were. And I wish that Bogle were. And I wish that Shiller were. And none of us are. We are all human. We are all flawed. That’s the bottom line here.
I’ll tell you a positive memory that I have of J.D. and then a negative one to balance it with the aim of conveying the real story, which has both positive and negative elements.
J.D. and I have had a number of conversations over the years. We used to meet frequently at the Financial Blogger Conferences. One year he went out of his way to introduce me to Todd Tressider, who writes the Financial Mentor blog. That was awesome. Todd and I ended up talking over safe withdrawal rates for about two hours and he introduced me to some people and I introduced him to some people. In the end, Todd played a role in my life very similar to the one that J.D. played — a mix of good stuff and bad stuff. But I sure appreciated what J.D. did to help out. That was awesome.
The negative story is that, one time I was commenting at his blog and he was not happy with what I was saying. I can’t recall the details but I was questioning the efficient market theory, which is the intellectual foundation for the Buy-and-Hold strategy. He has strong views against banning people, so he didn’t want to go that route. But to cut off the discussion, be sent e-mails to people participating on the thread (I think it was mostly you Goons — Surprise! Surprise!). I don’t think that was the right way to proceed. If he felt that you were doing things that were improper, he should have removed you. But there were important points being made in the discussion and he should have encouraged the discussion to continue in a non-abusive way.
You Goons love to divide people. If anyone says anything in support of Buy-and-Hold, you ask if I consider them a Goon. Well, it’s true that I believe that the Get Rich Quick urge is a purely emotional thing and that I believe that it is the Get Rich Quick urge that is behind the popularity of the idea that the Buy-and-Holders push that there is no need to practice price discipline when buying stocks. But it is also true that I think that the Buy-and-Holders are good and smart and hard-working people that have made many positive contributions for which we all should be grateful. I think it would be better if you made a little effort to portray my positions as I myself describe them and hold them rather than misrepresenting them, which is what you do when you use only the word “Goon” and leave everything else out.
There was once a time when slavery was permitted in the United States. That’s a horrible reality. Everyone agrees. We had to struggle as a society to get from the bad place where we were when slavery was permitted to the better place where we are today. Would it be helpful if we referred to everyone who was alive at that earlier time as a bigot? I sure don’t think so. We never would have made the change if a lot of the people who lived at that time didn’t show the courage to engage in a lot of good work to take us from a bad place to a better place. We really did once have slavery and we really did overcome it. We really did once lack the 37 years of peer-reviewed research showing us that long-term timing always works and is always required but we really are today in the process of getting past the poorly-informed views that prevailed in the days when the Buy-and-Hold project was getting off the ground. People can make mistakes and still be very good people. People can do very good things and still make mistakes.
I love J.D. for all of the amazing good work that he has done. And I am disappointed that he has not done more. I say similar things about Bogle all the time, right? I say it about Bogle because I believe it to be true about Bogle and I say it about J.D. Roth because I believe it to be true re J.D. Roth.
J.D. would possess a better understanding of how we can all avoid the terrible human suffering that we see in market crashes if he encouraged all of us to post with 100 percent honesty at all venues and at all times. That’s how a society advances over time. Shiller pointed the way to a huge advance with his “revolutionary” (his word) research findings of 1981. That’s why he was awarded a Nobel prize. When as a society we give ourselves permission to explore the far-reaching implications of Shiller’s work, we will all begin living better and richer lives. I see it as my job to help people do that. And I am 100 percent certain that J.D. sees it as his job to do the same.
J.D.’s post suggests that long-term timing might not work. He says that because he has heard Buy-and-Holders say it millions of times. But he doesn’t really know it because he has never engaged in sustained efforts to understand the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept in depth. That’s what it takes. The shift from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is a paradigm shift. You have to explore the idea from many angles for it to finally click.
I have seen people experience that click on many occasions. That’s what happened with Wade Pfau. It was very exciting for me when things finally clicked for Wade and he openly declared that: :”Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” I would love to see that happen for J.D. There’s noting that would make me happier.
For it to happen, we need to have a small group of people stand up to you Goons. Death threats poison the learning effort. Demands for unjustified board bannings poison the learning effort. Thousands of acts of defamation poison the learning effort. Threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs poison the learning effort. I mean. come on.
J.D. will see the human suffering that will follow the onset of the next price crash and he will come around at that time. That’s what I believe, Anonymous. I wish that we didn’t have to wait for that. It breaks my heart that we need to wait. But I do think that we need to move forward eventually and I believe that we will, with the help of people (Goons?) like J.D. Roth. We are all in this mess together and we will need to all pull together to figure out how to get out of it. Our laws against financial fraud reveal how we think about the sorts of tactics that you Goons have employed to keep us in the dark for the past 16 years and we will remember why we put those laws in place when we witness the human suffering that will follow the next price crash in the event that Shiller is right in what he believes about how stock investing works.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters in any event, Anonymous. I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person.
Take good care, man.
Sometimes Goon (and Sometimes Goon Slayer!) Rob
I notice the JD is planning on going to FinCon
https://www.getrichslowly.org/wake-me-up-when-september-ends/
“With the extra time this buys me, I’ll: Spend ten days in Orlando to attend this year’s Fincon (the conference for financial bloggers and journalists).”
Are you going to FinCon this year?
“a mix of good stuff and bad stuff.”
Has there ever been a person that runs a blog that does not have some of the “bad stuff”?
Will J.D. and Todd also be going to prison?
I’m not, Evidence.
Rob
Has there ever been a person that runs a blog that does not have some of the “bad stuff”?
I am not entirely sure what you are trying to suggest.
There are blogs in fields other than investing that are all good stuff.
And in the investing realm, there are people who run blogs that recommend Buy-and-Hold because they have never been exposed to other ideas. That’s not good exactly. It’s unfortunate. But if people give less-than-good advice because they don’t know better, I wouldn’t call that “bad.” I would call it unfortunate.
I am not able to endorse bad advice once I know from studying peer-reviewed research that it is bad. If you were thinking clearly, you would agree.
We will all feel better when we all feel free to offer good advice and when we know that all others participating in our community discussions are free to offer good advice. I am 100 percent sure re that one, Anonymous. We all should be working together to achieve that little dream of mine.
My sincere take.
Rob
Will J.D. and Todd also be going to prison?
If I were king of the world, we all would be working together to see that there were as few prison sentences as possible and that the prison sentences that cannot be avoided at this point in the proceedings would be as short as possible.
If we are not able to work up the courage to open the internet to honest posting prior to the onset of the next price crash, the number of prison sentences and the length of those prison sentences will determined by how angry the millions of middle-class people who have lost most of their retirement savings are about what was done to them. I will be making the best case that I am able to make on behalf of you Goons. I obviously am not able to guaranty that my efforts will be successful. We are in uncharted waters, Anonymous. We have never seen anything like this before.
Does that help?
Lawyer-for-the-Defense Rob
So I guess that means JD and Todd are also going to prison.
That’s not what I said and it’s not what I intended to say. So, no.
But the fact that we are even discussing the possibility should tell each and every one of us that we have collectively allowed things to get to a point that is very, very, very unhealthy for each and every one of us.
Please consider what we are talking about here. We are talking about safe withdrawal rates. Somebody looks at a number produced by a study of the historical return data, and, based on what that study tells him, he either hands in a resignation to a job that he has long used to provide the money he needs to pay his bills, or he holds off on handing in that resignation. It’s pretty darn important that that study get the numbers right! If there were a study being done on food sold in the grocery store telling us whether that food is poisoned or not, we would all agree that it is important that that study be performed in an analytically valid way. Are safe withdrawal rate studies any less important? Whether these studies are accurate or not determines whether or not people have the money they need to live on in their old age. The accuracy of these studies is a matter of great national importance.
It’s not just me who says that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies are inaccurate because they lack valuation adjustments. Wade Pfau said that that these studies are “dangerous.” Bill Bernstein said that they were off by a full two percentage points at the top of the bubble. I have an article at this site where I quote over 100 of our fellow community members on how they reacted to my famous post pointing out the error in the Greaney study. They said “Post on, Rob!” And they told me that I had started the most exciting discussion we had ever seen in the Retire Early community. And they told me that I was the first person who ever talked about stock investing in a way that made complete sense to them. Those people were friends of mine and those statements mean something to me. If we were talking about any subject other than Buy-and-Hold, there wouldn’t be one person on the planet who would tell me that I should betray the trust of those people by giving in to you Goons and pretending that I believe that the Greaney study and all the other Buy-and-Hold retirement studies are accurate.
Say that an angel came down from heaven today and handed us a note assuring us that J.D. Roth and Todd Tressider will not be going to prison in the days following the next price crash. Would that settle the matter?
I don’t think it would settle the matter. J.D. and Todd have friends who follow Buy-and-Hold strategies. How do you think they are going to feel when the lives of those friends are destroyed in the next price crash and they have to live with the reality that they had doubts about Buy-and-Hold because of what they heard from that Rob Bennett fellow but that they didn’t explore those doubts in depth because they knew that, if they gave public voice to those doubts, Bogle’s Goons would come after them and threaten to destroy their careers and their businesses and even to murder their loved ones?
J.D. and Todd are going to feel bad that they did not do more to help people in the days following the next price crash. Maybe they will go to prison, maybe they won’t. It’s not for me to say and I am happy that it is not for me to say. But I don’t even like it that J.D. and Todd are going to feel bad in the days following the next crash. I vote for us all running things in a way so that they (and millions and millions and millions of others) won’t feel so bad. Call me madcap but that’s my sincere take. I have never questioned it for two seconds over the course of these 16 years.
I think that Buy-and-Hold is a dangerous strategy. So I say that. That’s it. That’s the story here.
About 10 percent of the community sees at least some merit in what I say. About 90 percent would prefer not to hear my voice when I speak about the dangers of Buy-and-Hold.
What to do, what to do?
The answers lies in the words of the published rules of all of the various sites and of course ultimately in the words of the laws of the United States because both sets of rules come from the same place — our core beliefs as a nation of people as to how these sorts of matters should be handled.
I should be permitted to give voice to my sincere beliefs about Buy-and-Hold at every discussion board and blog on the internet. Our national policy re these matters is that it is better to let me speak because there are only two possibilities — I might be right and I might be wrong. If I am right, it is obviously best that I be permitted to speak, If I am wrong it is also obviously best that I be permitted to speak because, if I am wrong, that will be exposed through civil and reasoned debate and people will leave the experience with greater confidence in Buy-and-Hold, which is what we want to see in the event that I am wrong.
You think that you have won because you look at the 20 bannings and you see it as evidence that I will not be able to get my message out. I see those 20 bannings as a temporary win only. I look at the wording of the published rules of every site and indeed at the laws making financial fraud a felony and I conclude that it is not possible that the 10 percent of us who would like honest posting on the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research to be permitted at every discussion board and blog on the internet will not prevail in the long run.
I think that the people of the United States are going to win this one, Anonymous. I am sure. It is a question of time. It is a question of letting the process by which we get from a bad place to a good place to play out. We didn’t get warnings placed on package of cigarettes immediately after the research was published showing that cigarettes cause cancer. There was a process that had to play out. There were a lot of battles that had to be fought. There were times when the good guys despaired. But they did not give up. And in the end they prevailed because their vision was in line with the vision of the people of the United States. That’s how it works.
I want the best for J.D. Roth and for Todd Tressider. That’s why I encourage them to get on the right side of the debate today. I want the best for Mel Lindauer and John Greaney and Jack Bogle too. That’s why I encourage them too to get on the right side of the debate. J.D. and Todd are a lot closer to being on the right side today than the other three. But they do not today possess the courage to go all the way to the right side. I wish they did. They would feel better about themselves if they did. And they would help millions of people if they did.
And they are going to end up doing it anyway! That’s the killer! In the end even Bogle and Lindauer and Greaney are going to end up on the right side. They don’t have any freakin’ choice if they want to see our economic system survive (I am assuming here that Nobel-Prize-Winning Economist Robert Shiller is right in what he showed in his “revolutionary” [his word] research findings of 1981). If they have no choice but to move to the right side sooner or later, why not just do it today and make things easier for every single person affected by these matters (which is each and every one of us)?
I will do everything that I can to help my friends J.D. Roth and Todd Tressider. And I will do everything that I can to help my friends Jack Bogle and Mel Lindauer and John Greaney.
I believe that the most important thing that I can do is to urge everyone in the United States to unite in bringing the Ban on Honest Posting to a full and complete stop by the close of business today. We all need to know whether it is Bogle who is right or whether it is Shiller who is right. The only way we can find out for sure is to launch a national debate on the matter in which every single person is encouraged to tell us what he believes in his heart to be the truth. No intimidation tactics whatsoever!
My sincere take, dear friend.
Freedom-of-Speech Loving and Research Loving Rob
So if JD and Todd are not going to prison, then neither is anyone else. It is just that, as you say, everyone will feel sad. Did I get that right?
That’s what I said, Anonymous.
Good point.
Please take good care, old friend.
Sadness-Opposed Rob
So now you have decided to back away from all your prison threats and people will just be “sad”. Got it.
I believe that people will be going to prison in the days following the next price crash, Anonymous. Bernie Madoff is in prison today. And the Buy-and-Hold Con is in the process of causing 500 times the human suffering that we saw caused by the Madoff Con (even though he was at one time referred to as “Saint Bernie” by people who fell for his con).
I certainly have never made any “threats.” I have for 16 years now been doing everything in my power to see that as few people as possible go to prison and that the prison sentences received are as short as possible. I will continue to do everything in my power. There are things that I can say to help you Goons out. I can say that we all played a role in causing the messed-up situation we are in today. I sent an e-mail to David Forrest, the site administrator at Motley Fool, in June 2002 asking that he deal with the Greaney matter. Forrest liked the money that Greaney brought in to the site, So he took a pass on doing his job. That’s why we’re in the situation we are in. Buy-and-Hold creates Pretend Money and we all have a weakness for Pretend Money. So we all play a role in bringing on bull markets and the economic crises that follow from them. I include myself in that. I was afraid for three years to point out that the Greaney retirement study did not include a valuations adjustment. So I contributed to the problem myself for a time.
If we decide as a society that there will be no prison sentences, I will not object. I don’t think it is going to happen. I think people are going to be angry. People think that Buy-and-Hold is real, just as people once thought that the Madoff fund was real. The Maddoff fund investors became very angry when they saw what was done to them. I think we are going to see the same thing with the Buy-and-Holders after they see most of their life savings taken from them. You Goons talk about your Pretend Gains all the time when you are trying to make a case for Buy-and-Hold. It’s those Pretend Gains that draw you to the strategy, When those Pretend Gains are gone, your emotions are going to change. As much as you today love the strategy that created the Pretend Gains, that’s how much you will hate it when those gains go “Poof!”
You might be calling out for prison sentences yourself in those days. You probably won’t be saying that you yourself should go to prison. But it wouldn’t surprise me even a little bit if you pointed the finger at others and blamed them for pushing the smelly Buy-and-Hold garbage on you. We’ll see, you know?
We are going to have to come to terms with this as a society. That’s the bottom line. If we come to terms with it without sending anyone to prison, good for us, you know? But I am not going to find fault with people who demand prison sentences if they point out how the Buy-and-Holders made use of death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Even Bernie Madoff did not stoop that low. So I cannot say that prison sentences are entirely inappropriate. I can see why people would feel that as a society we need to make a statement so that nothing like this ever happens again.
We will make the call as a society. You Goons have hurt every investor alive on the planet. And every investor alive on the planet has a right to a say as to how we respond as a society to what was done to us. My vote is that we go as easy as possible because I want to see us all pull together and I think that steps taken in anger can be self-destructive. So I am generally going to be arguing that there are extenuating circumstances in this case that we should all be taking into consideration. But I am not going to say that Greaney’s study contained a valuations adjustment all along. I am not going to outright lie about anything that happened and thereby put myself in circumstances where I too could land in a prison cell. I don’t advise anyone else to travel down that dark path either.
I wish you the best of luck with it, you know? I think it is safe for me to go that far and so I don’t hesitate to do so.
I agree with John Walter Russell that, when we get to the end of this saga, we will all be amazed at how much good came from it. I think that that may even be so of a number of you Goons. Perhaps not. But I believe it may end up being so. I think sometimes that it would be fair to say that I have a higher opinion of you Goons than you have of yourselves! Stranger things have happened in this world, you know? I think that there is a part of you that loves your country. I think that that part of you may rise to the surface in the days following the next price crash, which will come as a shock to you because you have spent so much mental energy pushing down thoughts of the possibility that one is coming. Again — we’ll see.
I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, whether you experience that best inside a prison cell or outside a prison cell. There are people who ended up saying that going to prison was a positive experience for them. It sounds strange. But strange things happen in this mixed-up world of ours.
Don’t let the bad buys get you down, man.
Glass-Half-Full-Guy Rob
“I certainly have never made any “threats.” ”
You have specifically been telling people that they are going to prison. Spin all you want.
I have told you that I believe that you will be going to prison in the days following the next price crash because that’s what I believe and because I believe that your friends should be telling you that so that you can do something about it and because I am your friend.
I have never said that I intend to do anything to cause you to go to prison. I am going to report honestly that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. Obviously. If I lie about that, I go to prison too So obviously that’s out. But everything that is has been possible for me to do either to keep you out of prison altogether or to keep the length of your prison sentence as short as possible, I have done and will continue to do.
It’s the laws of the United States that threaten you, Anonymous. The people of the United States adopted laws against financial fraud because they want to be protected from it. I get that. I view those laws as good and necessary laws. I have been advising you since the morning of May 13, 2002, to FOLLOW those laws.
My “spin” is that we all will be living better and richer lives once we open every discussion board and blog on the internet to honest posting re safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. The last 37 years of peer-reviewed research is the most important 37 years of peer-reviewed research in the history of investment analysis. I am 100 percent sure.
I wish you all good things, if that helps at all.
Spin-Master Rob
“I have told you that I believe that you will be going to prison in the days following the next price crash because that’s what I believe and because I believe that your friends should be telling you that so that you can do something about it and because I am your friend.”
Which is basically threatening people. You throw words out there that you think will scare them into saying or doing what you want.
Like always, you will say you disagree (as you do with everyone when it is not in full alignment with your opinion).
The laws against financial fraud are meant to scare those who are giving thought to committing financial fraud. That’s their purpose.
I think that anyone who fails to point out to you that you are risking a prison sentence is letting you down. If everyone did what I did, I don’t think you would be on your way to a prison sentence because you would have been too scared to have done the things you have done. People who have failed to speak up have led you to believe that behavior that you can get away with when prices are at two times fair value will not get you sent to prison when prices are at fair value or lower. It’s that sort of cowardice that you should really be scared of. That’s what’s hurting you big-time. I’m your best friend in the world.
Do I want you to do what I want — permit honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics? Sure. I love my country. I think our system works. I think our laws are good laws. I think we are all better off if our laws are followed.
Call me madcap, you know?
Scary Rob
Tell me something that I can do for you that isn’t against the law and I will do it, you know?
Is there anything that doesn’t involve me pretending that I believe that Greaney included a valuations adjustment in his retirement study?
Felony Avoiding Rob
If others would scare you more, then I could step into the shadows and scare you less.
I wouldn’t mind that.
Someone had to do the job. Do you see anyone running to the front of the line to apply for the position?
That’s the problem. That’s what’s holding us all back.
Shadows-Bound (Someday?) Rob
There’s money in not scaring you.
That’s a big part of it.
People don’t see too much money to be made warning people of the dangers of Get Rich Quick schemes.
But we all pay a price when our emotional behavior brings on an economic crisis.
So I think we are going to have to as a society come to terms with this stuff.
Social Justice Warrior Rob
Does the prospect of millions of failed retirements scare you, Anonymous?
That one scares the bejeebers out of me.
Bejeebers-Depleted Rob
Fraud is just another word you use to make people scared of you. Instead, it gives people the perception that you have something wrong with you.
It may give people a different perception after they have seen 50 percent of their life savings go “Poof!”
If people were 100 percent rational, we wouldn’t have bull markets and we wouldn’t have Buy-and-Hold and we wouldn’t have any of these problems.
If there has been no fraud, you have nothing to be worried about. Go on and live your life in peace.
I think you have something to be scared about. But it ain’t me. It’s the millions of people whose lives you are in the process of destroying and how they are going to feel about you after they realize what you have done to them.
Non-Scary Rob
Last I checked, you are the one with the failed retirement plan.
“Does the prospect of millions of failed retirements scare you, Anonymous?”
You seem to be the one scared. Long term data supports a well diversified portfolio through buy, hold and rebalance, whereas, there is no long term data to support risky timing schemes, such as VII. We have yet to see even one successful case utilizing VII.
Last I checked, you are the one with the failed retirement plan.
Last I checked, you are the one who threatened to send defamatory e-mails to the employer of an academic researcher in an effort to get him fired from his job unless he agreed to stop doing honest work in this field.
Wade Pfau Co-Author Rob
You seem to be the one scared. Long term data supports a well diversified portfolio through buy, hold and rebalance, whereas, there is no long term data to support risky timing schemes, such as VII. We have yet to see even one successful case utilizing VII.
I am scared of what will happen to all of us in the next price crash, that much is certainly fair to say.
The last 37 years of peer-reviewed research in this field shows that valuations affect long-term returns and that investors who want to keep their risk profiles constant over time must adjust their stock allocations in response to big shifts in valuations. There has never been even a sliver of evidence suggesting that it might be a bad thing to exercise price discipline when buying stocks. Wade Pfau spent months checking that out and was amazed by what he found. His findings in this regard were a big part of the reason why he concluded his research efforts with the plain statement: “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!”
Had there been no intimidation tactics over the past 37 years, there probably would not be one person alive today questioning whether it is necessary to exercise price discipline when buying stocks. It is every bit as necessary to practice price discipline when buying stocks as it is when buying anything else offered for sale in this consumer wonderland of ours.
Buy-and-Hold was a mistake. The mistake should be corrected now that we have 37 years of peer-reviewed research revealing the error that was included in it. Shiller deserved his Nobel prize. He “revolutionized” (his word) the field in an intellectual sense. We will able to able to join in the effort to revolutionize it in a practical sense once as a society we work up the courage to deal effectively with you Goons.
My best and warmest wishes to you.
Non-Defamatory Rob
“Last I checked, you are the one who threatened to send defamatory e-mails to the employer of an academic researcher in an effort to get him fired from his job unless he agreed to stop doing honest work in this field.”
Provide one single link to prove this statement and I will publicly apologize to you and say you are right. Otherwise, if you can’t do so, then you have been proven to be a liar.
There’s an entire category section of this blog devoted to reports on the work that Wade Pfau and I did together. He offered scores and scores and comments on my work and on what his research showed re the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept. Then he wrote me a note saying that he was scared of what you could do to destroy his career. Then he put forward a comment 100 percent at odds with everything he said over the prior 16 months and cut off communication.
The members of your jury will see all those posts when they are making their decision, Anonymous. And Wade will be called to testify and he will testify honesty (after prices have fallen 50 percent or more, there will be enormous pressures on him to do so).
We both know how it is going to play out. I have offered to do anything in my power to help you out. And that I will indeed do, now or later. I will not cross to the wrong side of the felony line myself. That is of course a 100 percent absurd thing for you to expect of me.
My best wishes.
Evidence-Supplying Rob
“Wade Pfau spent months checking that out and was amazed by what he found. ”
Yes, I found out that you were wrong in your comments about John Greaney. He also said you were wrong about people trying to get him fired. He finally had to stop talking to you because of all the things you said.
And what will he say in the days following the price crash? People are not going to be emotionally attached to Buy-and-Hold in those days. People are going to be looking to hang people who advocated Buy-and-Hold up on trees in those days. So I have a funny feeling that Wade will suddenly “remember” the scores and scores of comments he made over a 16-month time-period.
The fact that you felt a need to engage in criminal behavior to “defend” Buy-and-Hold tells the tale, Anonymous. If it was something real, we never would have seen a single death threat or a single demand for a single unjustified board banning or a single act of defamation or a single threat to get a single academic researcher fired from a single job.
I don’t need to engage in criminal acts to make the case for Valuation-Informed Indexing. It’s nice to have 37 years of peer-reviewed research and a Nobel prize on my side.
Take care, man,
Feeling Confident Rob
You are the one who has made up this whole thing about criminal behavior. There has not yet been one single link provided that shows of any death threat or job threat. The only thing you have are comments on your own board that only you have made.
Wade figured out how much of a crock pot you are and has decided, like most others, to just ignore you.
Okay, Anonymous.
I wish you the best of luck with it, in any event.
Crock Pot Rob
Of course, if you have a verified 3rd party source and can provide a link to such, that points out these death threats and job threats that you continue to claim, you can always provide a link in order to show all of us that you are right and we have all been wrong.
We will wait for your response.
After the crash, I’ll have Jack Bogle.
Is that a big enough name for you?
Boglehead Rob
“After the crash, I’ll have Jack Bogle.
Is that a big enough name for you?
Boglehead Rob”
Uhm….Jack did not make any death threats of job threats. Come on now, Rob. If those threats really happened, you should have a link, right??? You would have the ability right here and now to set the record straight and show everyone after all these years that there was an actual death threat. Why would this situation be any different than any other situation? We always require proof of an allegation in every other situation. Why would this particular situation be any different. Go ahead, Rob. Show us the links.
Greaney’s study is posted at his web site, Anonymous. Anyone who cares to can take 10 minutes and see if he can find a valuations adjustment in the study.
Greaney himself hasn’t been able to find one. If there truly were a valuations adjustment in that study, we never would have seen a single death threat or a single demand for a single unjustified board banning or a single act of defamation or a single threat to get a single academic researcher fired from a single job.
Those who follow the peer-reviewed research have known for 37 years that Buy-and-Hold is a scam. Permit honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and the entire house of cards comes tumbling down. So you Goons fight like crazy to block honest posting on safe withdrawal rates at every site on the internet.
Will you still be able to pull it off following the next crash? I don’t think so. But you are not going to go by what I say. We will have to wait a bit to see how it all plays out.
I will do anything that I can to help you out. But I cannot say that I see a valuations adjustment in the Greaney study. I have zero desire to join you in prison. So we will see what we will see.
This entire site is your link. Start anywhere and then just go where your fancy takes you. If your mind is 1 percent open, you will get the general idea in time. And then as you go deeper, the story will become clearer and clearer until you will never again be able to think about how stock investing works in the old way again.
There’s a reason why I am banned at every major investing site on the internet. That sort of thing doesn’t happen by accident.
Hang in there, man.
Link-Crazy Rob
So, the answer is to just read Rob’s stuff till you believe it.
Instead of having actual evidence.
The answer is to let the process play out, Laugh.
You have my blessing to never read another word I say. That would be 100 percent on the right side of the line. You travel to the wrong side of the line when you make that decision for others. All of the others get to decide for themselves whether they will read any of my words or not.
Every new idea in the history of the world started with one person believing it. Then it became two. And then four. And then in time four-hundred. And then in more time four-thousand. And like that. That’s the process by which an idea grows from insignificance to dominance. You have to let that process play out as it will without trying to kill the idea in the crib.
Most new ideas die of their own weakness before they grow into anything of significance. It is fine for you to believe that that is what will happen with Valuation-Informed Indexing. If the idea is not strong, it will die without you ever needing to life a finger to kill it. But it is not for you to force the death of the idea. Each member of the community plays a role in determining whether the idea withers or grows and you just have to stand back and let that process play out. You get a vote, like everyone else. You can say “I think this idea is pure stupid.” That’s fine. That’s helpful, actually. Doing that is playing your role. But, after you do that, you have to let it be. Others get to decide for others. You need to respect the line that distinguishes deciding for yourself and trying to force others to make the decision you prefer. You need to let others make up their own minds without interference from you.
That’s it. That’s the secret. I often say “I love my country.” That’s what I mean when I say it. Our country has a process by which these sorts of disputes are resolved. It works. Most new ideas die. Most new ideas should die. So it’s a good thing that our process results in the death of most new ideas. But some new ideas go on to help us all in hundreds of amazing ways. And so it is also a good thing that our process lets a small number of new ideas grow into something very big. You need to respect that process. You need to play your role to the best of your ability and then step back and let others do their thing without any force being applied by you.
What’s evidence to you is not necessarily evidence in the mind of someone else. And what’s not evidence to you might qualify in the mind of someone else. You have to respect that others have different perspectives from yours as to what constitutes evidence. All of the words that come out of your mouth should reflect your perspective. But all of the others get to determine their perspective and to decide on the words that will come out of their mouths. You control the posts that appear with your name on them. But you do not speak for the entire community. If there are 10 percent who are Valuation-Informed Indexers, that 10 percent gets to decide for itself what constitutes evidence from its perspective. The 10 percent has the same right to speak its mind as the 90 percent. No intimidation tactics.
Process-Focused Rob