feed twitter twitter facebook

A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Rob’s Bio
    • Contact Rob
    • Rob’s Book
    • Don’t Sue Me!
  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
    • 10 Unconventional Money Saving Tips
    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
    • This Book Saves Marriages — The Complete Tightwad Gazette
    • How to Start Saving Money
  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
    • The Retirement Risk Evaluator
    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“The Big Mistake Was Made in 1981. Bogle Should Have Come Out Within Days of the Publication of Shiller’s “Revolutionary” (His Word) Research Showing That Buy-and-Hold Can Never Work in the Long Term and Told All the People Who Follow His Advice That There Was Now Serious Research Casting Doubt on the Buy-and-Hold Strategy.”

October 18, 2018 by Rob

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

“I speak for people re the process issue but never re the substance issue.”

Wrong, Sluggo. You speak for many peopl, with Robert Shillerbeing the most commonly used person. For example, Shiller says not to use his work for timing, but you say he means short term and not long term. You have also said he wants to say many other thangs, but pulls his punches. What about Wade? You make many comments about what you say he really means, but then say he is too scared to make those comments.

Wade said the same thing over and over and over and over again. Then he was threatened and he took it all back, Gee, I wonder what was going on there.

All of Shiller’s work shows why long-term timing (price discipline) is required. And of course he advocated it himself in the paper he wrote in 1996 saying that those going with high stock allocations would regret it within 10 years. Yes, he pulled back from making those sorts of predictions when the 1996 prediction did not pan out. And I of course have never said that Shiller continues to make those predictions. But the Nobel-prize-winning research that shows that long-term timing always works and is always required is still out there. So why shouldn’t I tell people that and give Shiller credit for being the one who prepared the research?

If I did not say that long-term timing always works and is always required, Wade would never have contacted me to ask if I would be willing to work with him on research showing that Valuation-Informed Indexing is superior to Buy-and-Hold. Where would we be then? I think it would be fair to describe that research as the most important research published in this field in 30 years. So I sure wouldn’t like us to be without it. And you Goons obviously think it is pretty darn important too or else you never would have threatened Wade. Please give me a freakin’ break.

The big mistake was made in 1981. Bogle should have come out within days of the publication of Shiller’s “revolutionary” (his word) research showing that Buy-and-Hold can never work in the long term and told all the people who follow his advice that there was now serious research casting doubt on the Buy-and-Hold strategy. If he still believed in Buy-and-Hold, he of course could have said that too. But he certainly should have let people know that the research cast doubt on the merit of the Buy-and-Hold strategy. Then we never would have experienced any of these problems.

Now we have a huge mess on our hands because the big problem for the Buy-and-Holders is not the mistake they made in thinking that it is not necessary to practice price discipline when buying stocks but the 37-year cover-up. I didn’t cause that cover-up, Anonymous. I have been working hard to bring it to a full and complete stop for 16 years now. Once the cover-up is brought to a full and complete stop, we all live better lives from that point forward. That’s the path that gets my vote.

No one should be afraid to post honestly at any board or at any blog. My sincere take.

My best wishes to you. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Non-Punch-Pulling, Non-Scared (Kinda, Sorta) Rob (AKA Sluggo)

Filed Under: Investing Basics

Comments

  1. Anonymous says

    October 18, 2018 at 7:42 am

    “Wade said the same thing over and over and over and over again. Then he was threatened and he took it all back. Gee, I wonder what was going on there.”

    No need to wonder. It’s obvious. Just one small but typical example is in this same comment:

    “the 1996 prediction did not pan out”

    “long-term timing always works”

    You fail to the contradiction there, which proves that you are irrational and impossible to reason with.

    Wade disowned you in 2012, and your reaction was an epic psychotic break from which you have never recovered. I could post the link but it’s ancient history. It’s sad that you won’t ever get past it.

  2. Rob says

    October 18, 2018 at 9:34 am

    I agree that Shiller’s 1996 prediction did not pan out. I do not agree that that shows that long-term timing does not always work.

    If prices fall over the next year or two or three by 75 percent (that would take us to a P/E10 of 8 — there has never once in U.S. history been a bull/bear cycle that did not get us to a P/E10 of 8 or lower before it fully resolved and a new cycle was able to begin), those who followed Shiller’s 1996 advice to lower their stock allocations will be FAR ahead of those who followed Buy-and-Hold strategies instead. Presuming that stocks continue to perform in the future at least somewhat as they always have in the past. this will be one more case in which exercising price discipline when buying stocks (by engaging in long-term timing) will have paid off big time, even though the precise prediction advanced by Shiller (that prices would drop hard within 10 years) did not in fact pan out.

    Remember when Wade said re long-term market timing that “It hardly matters how we do it” because the evidence that it works in every possible circumstance is so strong? That’s what he was getting at. Long-term timing is price discipline. How could there ever be a circumstance in which exercising price discipline would not work? Shiller once said that the conclusion that the Buy-and-Holders jumped to, that because short-term timing does not work, the market price is the product of rational choices and reflects reality, is one of the most remarkable mistakes in the history of economics. I would add that it is in the process of causing more human misery than any earlier mistake ever made in the history of personal finance.

    It doesn’t matter too much WHEN the pretend gains caused by irrational exuberance disappear into the wind. What matters is that they always do. If you know that those gains are going to be disappearing in coming days, you should not be counting them as part of your retirement portfolio. That’s what the Buy-and-Holders do. The Buy-and-Holders count those pretend gains as real (because they believe that those gains are the product of economic developments, not irrational exuberance).

    That’s the core difference between Buy-and-Holders and Valuation-Informed Indexers. We have different views as to where excess price gains come from. If you believe that big price gains are the product of economic developments, then they signal something very positive — a growing economy. But if you believe that big price gains are the product of irrational exuberance, then they signal something very negative — a market that has become insanely emotional. How you feel about that core question is going to determine how you feel about every other question that comes up in stock investing. If you think that the market has gone insanely emotional, you are not going to feel comfortable putting too much of your money in it. If you think that high prices just signal a super strong economy, you are going to celebrate the big gains because you will want to participate in the benefits of the super strong economy to the greatest extent possible.

    Wade didn’t disown me. The 16 months in which we were working together were the happiest and most exciting months of his life and he properly remains immensely proud of the research paper that we co-authored. He stopped promoting the paper and stopped working with me to get the word out about the realities of stock investing to millions of middle-class investors because he saw what you Goons do to people who post honestly re these matters and he saw how Bogle failed to act when he saw what was going on and he concluded that he needed to pull back to keep his career from being destroyed. Those who want to know Wade’s sincere views re what works in stock investing can read the items under the “Wade Pfau” category at this blog and learn some amazing stuff. Wade will be flipping back to work with the good guys in the days following the next price crash and I believe that he will be awarded a Nobel prize for his amazing work at that time. We’ll see.

    Buy-and-Hold was a mistake. Now that the mistake has been covered up for 37 years through insanely abusive behavior, I think it would be fair to characterize it as a scam. It’s a scam that is killing us as a nation. I OPPOSE the scam. I am proud to be able to say that I have been publicly OPPOSING it for 16 years now. Who else can say that?

    It will be interesting to see how things play out.

    I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, scam promotion or no scam promotion. My personal belief is that, in the days following the crash, when you have seen the effects of Buy-and-Hold on your own retirement hopes, you will flip too and we will be working together as friends to get the word out about the exciting last 37 years of peer-reviewed research in this field to every investor alive on the planet. I sure hope it turns out that way, in any event.

    My best and warmest wishes to you, Goon pal.

    Psychotically Broken Rob

  3. Anonymous says

    October 18, 2018 at 11:22 am

    “Wade didn’t disown me.”

    He cut off all contact with you six years ago. That’s the definition of being disowned. Now, would you like to hear the definition of “denial”?

  4. Rob says

    October 18, 2018 at 11:30 am

    He cut off contact with me. That’s so. But the things we learned together are things that will shape the remaining years of his life in much the same way that they will shape the remaining years of my life. The circumstances are strange. But the bond between us can never be broken. You don’t forget that kind of learning experience. It changes you. And you can never change back, even if circumstances force you to pretend that you have.

    The test will be what Wade says about me in the days following the next price crash, Anonymous. I have a funny feeling that I know how that one is going to go. We’ll see.

    I think it is you Goons who are in denial. Thousands of people have looked at the Greaney retirement study in the 16 years since I put forward my famous post pointing out the error in it. Not once has been able to identify a valuation adjustment in it. I wonder why.

    My best wishes.

    Disowned and In Denial Rob

  5. Anonymous says

    October 18, 2018 at 11:39 am

    “I think it is you Goons who are in denial.”

    Because you’re irrational. So once again, we circle back to the beginning. A merry-go-round you refuse to ever step off.

  6. Rob says

    October 18, 2018 at 11:47 am

    One side or the other is deeply irrational, I think that at least that much is more than fair to say.

    It all comes down to how one elects to deal with the emotionalism of the investing experience. The Buy-and-Holders pretend that it doesn’t exist. If there is never a mention of investor emotion, then investor emotion does not matter, right?

    The Valuation-Informed Indexers acknowledge the emotionalism of the investing experience and make an effort to come to terms with it. The hope is that by coming to terms with investor emotionalism we can reduce its negative impact.

    I naturally wish you the best of luck with your choices, even though my personal view is that your choices are not the best that could be made.

    Please take good care, old friend.

    Merry-Go-Rounder Rob

  7. Anonymous says

    October 18, 2018 at 6:16 pm

    And someday, Jack and Wade will come crying to you, saying that they have been wrong about you all along and will plead to work with you to solve the economic crisis. They will also be the first to help you get the $500 million you so richly deserve. You will be featured on the front page of the New York Times, books will be written about you and every financial conference will want you as the keynote speaker. Meanwhile, all the goons will be headed to prison, with John Greaney and Mel Lindauer facing the longest prison terms for their part in the massive cover up, death threats, etc…………………………….and then you will wake up from your dream and return to reality.

  8. Rob says

    October 18, 2018 at 7:08 pm

    And Bogle will get credit for all of his many genuine contributions because he really is a giant in this field. And Wade will be awarded the Nobel prize that he so richly deserves. And we will pull out of the Buy-and-Hold Crisis and enter a period of prolonged economic growth. And millions of middle-class people will learn how to invest in way that provides far higher returns at greatly reduced risk. And all of our Wall Street Con Men friends will be able to make more money than ever before because people will feel safer investing in stocks once the risk of stock investing has been greatly diminished. And all of our blogger friends will be having a blast exploring all of the hundreds of exciting debate that were taken off the table during the Buy-and-Hold years but which finally can be discussed freely. And the number of people who can retire early will be greatly expanded.

    Please tell me the downside, Anonymous.

    Of all the things that Bogle got right, the most important one was the one where he said that investors should look to the peer-reviewed research for guidance on how to invest in stocks. He should have just stuck with that.

    My sincere take.

    And my best wishes to you.

    Dream-Weaver Rob

  9. Anonymous says

    October 18, 2018 at 7:36 pm

    “Please tell me the downside, Anonymous.”

    We can’t all live in Rob’s fantasyland. We have to live in reality.

  10. Rob says

    October 18, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    My fantasyland comes with a Nobel prize.

    Yours comes with death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.

    Reason vs. Emotion.

    My best.

    Fantasyland Rob

  11. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 6:09 am

    “My fantasyland comes with a Nobel prize.
    Yours comes with death threats” etc etc.

    No, those are both your fantasies. That’s really the heart of the problem, isn’t it? Everything you write is fantasy. You used to toss in a bit of reality every once in a while. Back when people actually sent you emails. But those days are long gone. Your post-Wade psychotic break changed everything.

  12. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 7:19 am

    The bottom line is that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies have not been corrected to this day. I pointed out in my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, that the Greaney study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. All of the words that have been spilled over the following 16 years show that I was right. Thousands of people have looked at the Greaney study during that time. Not one has been able to identify a valuation adjustment. A failed retirement is a serious life setback. Greaney should have corrected his study within 24 hours of the moment when he learned of the error he made in it.

    Now —

    The backstory is that Greaney’s retirement study would be perfect in a world in which the market was efficient, which is the world that Bogle thought we lived in at the time when he developed the Buy-and-Hold strategy. The idea that the market is efficient was born in 1965, when Fama published research showing that short-time timing doesn’t work. Lots of good and smart people jumped to the conclusion that no form of timing works. Shiller showed in 1981 that this conclusion was a false one. He showed that long-term timing (price discipline) always works and is always required for investors seeking to keep their risk profile roughly constant over time. Shiller has described the intellectual leap from the finding that short-term price changes are unpredictable to the Buy-and-Hold conclusion that the market sets prices properly as “one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economics.” That’s the core dispute. Buy-and-Hold is rooted in error, the error was revealed by the peer-reviewed research in this field 37 years ago, and now that the error has been covered up for 37 years, the Buy-and-Holders are very, very, very, very much opposed to seeing it exposed.

    I refuse to post dishonestly re the numbers that my friends are using to plan their retirements. So you see me as your enemy. I don’t see it that way. The way that I see it is that we all want the same things and so we all should be working together to learn how stock investing really works in the real world. But there are no words that I can put forward that can persuade you. You don’t want millions of middle-class investors to learn that you got the numbers they have been using to plan their retirements wrong and I am 100 percent unwilling to post dishonestly re the matter, no matter how much in the way of intimidation tactics are applied, so we work at cross purposes.

    I don’t like that reality but it remains the reality that I must deal with all the same. I agree with what Wade Pfau said in the days before you Goons threatened him with career destruction and John Bogle failed to step in an help the man — the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies are “dangerous.” They should be corrected. At the very bare minimum, anyone who points someone to one of the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies for use in planning a retirement should let that person know that there are today two schools of academic thought as to how stock investing works, not one, and let that person make the decision as to whether to rely on the numbers generated by the Buy-and-Hold studies or the numbers generated by the Valuation-Informed Indexing studies.

    We will learn together how it all plays out in the days following the next price crash. I can wish you the best of luck with it because I think of you Goons as friends. But that’s as far as I can go. I cannot post dishonestly re the numbers that my friends are using to plan their retirements. No way, no how. Zero chance. Not in 16 years, not in 16 billion years. I truly wish that you would make an effort to find somebody else.

    I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors in any event, my dear Goon friend.

    Fantasy Man Rob

  13. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 8:15 am

    “A failed retirement is a serious life setback.”

    Don’t you find it ironic that you are saying that everyone else will eventually have a failed retirement m when you have already had a failed retirement.

  14. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 8:20 am

    I wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, Anonymous.

    Does that help at all?

    Ironic Rob

  15. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 8:25 am

    “The bottom line is that … I don’t like that reality.”

    Yes, that’s what I said. You don’t like reality and you refuse to spend any time there. Everything else in your comment is the same old imaginary bullshit. And they’re not even interesting fantasies. They’re boring. Since you’ve already completely abandoned reality, then let your fantasies fly. Need help? How about this to get started:

    “I was laying outside in my yard, naked. My stupid old lady neighbor gave me her same stupid look. It’s my yard, you old bag. Then suddenly Wade, my green and purple tree frog, started croaking “GREANEY,GREANEY,GREANEY”

  16. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 8:32 am

    Okay.

    I do wish you all good things.

    Please take good care, old friend.

    Anti-Reality, Anti-Greaney Rob

  17. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 9:32 am

    Rob,

    If these “goons” never existed, how do you think your life would have been different, other than the loss of mild entertainment?

  18. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 10:14 am

    That’s like asking an oncologist how his life would have been different if cancer had never existed. In one sense, it would have been better. The oncologist devotes his human energies to defeating cancer, just as I devote my human energies to defeating the Get Rich Quick urge that animates the Buy-and-Hold strategy. So there is a sense in which the oncologist sees cancer as the enemy. But he doesn’t avoid cancer in the way that he might avoid some other enemies. He goes looking for people who have cancer to see if he can help them. He reads all that he can about new developments in the treatment of cancer. He wants to know everything about cancer so that he can do a better job eradicating it (because he loves people and cancer hurts people). So do I want to know everything about goonisness/Get Rich Quick thinking because I want to eradicate it (because goonishness/Get Rich Quick thinking hurts people and I love people).

    Does that help at all? I like you Goons as people, Anonymous. For all sorts of reasons. Because I learn from you, for one. But I believe strongly that, if you were thinking clearly, you would work hard to rein in your Goon inclinations. Because those Goon inclinations hurt you in very, very serious ways. You need to know how stock investing works. We all do. But you have made a decision never to listen to the 10 percent of the population that believes that Shiller’s research is legitimate research because those people say things that make you feel uncomfortable. I don’t apologize for making you feel uncomfortable. I think that there are circumstances in which we must live through a measure of discomfort to get to a better place and to experience lots of exciting, wonderful stuff. The words that I direct at you are aimed at helping you to find your way to that place or at helping others find their way to that place in the event that you elect not to go there and others elect to visit this site in the hopes of learning what they need to learn to find their way to that better place.

    Does that help at all? I don’t like goonishness. But I appreciate that goonishness often resides within good and smart people who would disdain their own goonishness if they were able to see it. I cannot force anyone to see their own goonishness. But I can point it out to them and to others. And if they or the others reach a point where they are interested in seeing how the goonishness is a negative, they can benefit from seeing how it all works.

    Goonishness/Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold is bad. That’s my sincere take. I was once a Buy-and-Holder myself. That was because Buy-and-Hold was promoted as a research-based strategy and that’s what I was looking for. I think that Get Rich Quick emotions can hurt investors and I like the idea of teaching people what the research shows so that they can rein in those emotions. On the evening of August 27, 2002, when Greaney advanced his first death threat and 200 of my fellow community members endorsed the post containing it, I lost confidence in Buy-and-Hold. I cannot endorse a strategy that prompts people to go down that dark path.

    Get Rich Quick investing is my cancer. I love the people who follow Buy-and-Hold strategies. I devote my human energies to showing them that that is a mistake. I love the people, I don’t love the cancer. My job is to remove the cancer, my job is to defeat the cancer.

    If we lived in a world in which there were no Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge, I would need to find something else to do with my time, just as an oncologist who was moved to a world in which there was no cancer would need to find something else to do with his time. I see no signs that Get Rich Quick investing strategies are going to disappear from our world anytime soon. So I intend to just keep doing what I can to help people overcome the Buy-and-Hold stuff. If I could wave a magic wand in the air and make the Get Rich Quick urge go away, I would do it. But I obviously don’t possess those sorts if powers. So I do what I do instead.

    I hope that helps a small bit. I wish you all good things.

    Cancer-Fighting Rob

  19. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 11:01 am

    Tell us when you left you salary job and how that ties to what you just wrote. Were you consulting with your crystal ball at that time?

  20. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 11:41 am

    I left my corporate job on August 1, 2000.

    I have never consulted a crystal ball. So that question makes no sense.

    Rob

  21. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 12:06 pm

    “I left my corporate job on August 1, 2000.”

    And you had a detailed plan for what you would be doing after that. Which you never talk about anymore, but is it fair to say that your original plan bears no resemblance to your current reality (there’s that awful word again)?

  22. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 1:05 pm

    The plan when I left my job was that I would earn $20,000 per year selling personal finance reports on the internet. I tested the concept before I left my job. I earned $15,000 in six months from my Soapbox.com report (“Secrets of Retiring Early”) and it took me about 3 months to write that report. If I produced four reports each year and earned $30,ooo per year from each of them, I obviously would be earning a good bit more than $20,ooo per year. So I was in good shape.

    Soapbox.com shut down in February 2001. So I had to make a new plan. Given the success of the Secrets report (it was the #1 best selling report in the history of the Soapbox.com site), it made sense to blow that report up to a full-length book. So I spent the next period of time doing that. That project became my Passion Saving book.

    Before I finished the Passion Saving book, Greaney launched his smear campaign against Wanderer. We were losing all of our best posters due to his abusive behavior. So I had to do something to save that board (I could not have produced the Passion Saving book without all of the things that I learned from that amazing community of aspiring early retirees). So I worked up the courage to put forward my famous post of the morning of May 13, 2002.

    The rest is history.

    Did things turn out the way I expected? No. If you had asked me on the morning of May 13, 2002, to give the odds of things going as they have, I would have put them at 10 million to one. But here we are, you know? It’s certainly not what I expected. But I am very, very proud of the work that I have done. Perhaps things will turn out a lot better than I ever could have expected in the days following the next price crash. We will have to wait and see to find out how that goes.

    There’s no amount of money that could ever persuade me to post dishonestly re the numbers that my friends are using to plan their retirements. Asking me to do that is like asking me to flap my arms in the air and fly to the moon. It cannot happen. Thus, it never does happen. Whether things go as I expect them to or not doesn’t change that. I am not capable of doing things that I am not capable of doing. I need to be able to live with myself. I am not able to see how anyone can live with himself if he posts dishonestly re the numbers that his friends use to plan their retirements.

    So, no, things have not gone as I expected. In some ways, they have gone a lot worse. In other ways, the have gone a lot better. The good news here has been 50 times more good than the bad news here has been bad. The Bennett/Pfau research paper is the most important research done in this field in the past 30 years. That paper wouldn’t exist if I had never worked up the courage to post honestly re safe withdrawal rates. So I think it would be fair to say that my decision has paid off in a huge way. Just not financially, which I think is what you are getting at. Financially, it has been a catastrophe. It would be hard to imagine any decision that could pay off worse financially. My investing stuff has driven away people who loved my saving stuff. So the investing stuff has so far provided me a negative return. Yikes!

    Does that help?

    Negative Return Rob

  23. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 4:10 pm

    So, you had an income stream that was dependent on other people’s websites, so it wasn’t really an established/stable revenue stream. Your follow up plan seems to be relying on getting settlement payments that were clearly not your plan at the time you left your job. Why would you not just go back to the working world to provide greater certainty to your retirement?

  24. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 4:53 pm

    The plan was 100 percent established. I was the most popular poster at the entire Motley Fool site. My report generated $15,000 in only six months and I had the ability to produce four new reports each year. Thousands of people have made fortunes on the internet. It is the future of journalism and I have decades of experience in the field. Nothing could be more established.

    You Goons had to engage in criminal behavior to stop me. Huh? What the f? I obviously could not anticipate that some internet goon who got an important number wrong in a retirement study posted at his web site would engage in criminal behavior to keep people from learning about it and that others Goons would join his effort and that the owners of numerous sites would tolerate this behavior because the Get Rich Quick approach to stock investing being advocated by the Goon was popular at the time.

    Why wouldn’t I seek damages for the losses suffered? That’s how our system works. And it will do huge good for this new communication medium for me to be awarded those damages. Many good people hate the abusive stuff they see on the internet. What do you think is going to happen when word gets out that I have been awarded damages of $500 million or more. The level of abusiveness is going to go way down.

    The same thing is true re the announcement of prison sentences. Again, that will bring the level of abusiveness way down. This is a powerful communications medium. We should all want to see the sorts of individuals who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Lindauer and John Greaney and Jack Bogle to pay a penalty for their behavior. Seeing that will encourage people who have good things to offer to offer them. I would love to see that and I will feel honored that I was able to play a role in bringing it about. Are you joking?

    Our system works. It’s you Goons who followed a bad plan when you chose to engage in criminal acts and to incur many millions in civil liabilities. Guess who suggested that you might not want to go there many years ago? Your old friend Farmer Hocus! Who’d a thunk it?

    Think about it this way. Would you have gone down the dark path you went down if people who came before you had been sent to prison and had paid huge civil penalties as a result of their abusive behavior? You wouldn’t have. You were hurt because people did not seek these sorts of damages in earlier days. I don’t want to do that to any future Goons. I intend to do what I need to do to make it clear to all that the laws of the United States apply to the internet. I mean. come on.

    I’m following a good plan. I’m not going to prison. I am not going to be paying any damages in the days following the next price crash. It is you Goons who are following a very, very, very, very bad plan. I am 100 percent sure.

    My best wishes to you and yours.

    Solid Plan Rob

  25. Anonymous says

    October 19, 2018 at 6:36 pm

    “My report generated $15,000 in only six months and I had the ability to produce four new reports each year. ”

    It doesn’t matter what you can produce. What matters is what you can sell. Further, you are the one that wrecked your reputation. No one owes you a business and no one but you is responsible for the success or failure of your business.

  26. Rob says

    October 19, 2018 at 7:11 pm

    A jury will decide the matter, Anonymous. That’s how our system works. And I think it is a great system.

    I wish you the best of luck with it. I hope that helps a small bit.

    Reputation Wrecked Rob

  27. Anonymous says

    October 20, 2018 at 8:51 am

    “Yours comes with death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.”

    Death threats? You mean this link you sent to the police that is obviously not a death threat?

    https://boards.fool.com/sydsydsyd-theyre-taking-them-down-as-fast-as-we-18207722.aspx?sort=postdate

  28. Rob says

    October 20, 2018 at 11:49 am

    I did indeed show that to the police. And, yes, that is indeed a death threat.

    Posts like that do not belong in discussions of how stock investing works. And it is ALWAYS the Buy-and-Holders who advance such posts. It is only a small number of Buy-and-Holders who do that sort of thing. But it is a LARGE percentage of the population of Buy-and-Holders who TOLERATE that sort of thing.

    Motley Fool should have banned the person who advanced that post. The post is clearly in violation of their published rules. They didn’t ban the person who advanced the post because the majority of the population of the board was Buy-and-Holders and Motley Fool wanted the money that came in as a result of having those people at the site.

    This is why Buy-and-Hold is so dangerous. It is an emotion-based strategy. It cannot survive in a world in which posting based on the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research is permitted. So it is not just that the Buy-and-Holders get it wrong. Getting it wrong is a small thing in relative terms. It is that the Buy-and-Holders cannot tolerate anyone else getting it right. Buy-and-Holders attack those who advocate research-based strategies because, when people come to see the merits of research-based strategies, it makes the Buy-and-Holders look bad for promoting the OPPOSITE of what works. What works is to always practice price discipline when buying stocks. Buy-and-Holders tell investors NOT to exercise price discipline (long-term timing). Huh? What the f?

    I OPPOSE that sort of post, Anonymous. Please feel free to spread the word all across the internet. I would feel that you were doing me a favor by doing so. That sort of thing is not my particular cup of tea. It’s not a close call. The primary reason why I chose to build the Retire Early at Motley Fool is that they had the strongest rules on the internet protecting people from that sort of posting behavior. Motley Fool should have enforced its published rules in a reasonable manner despite the fact that it would cost them a few bucks in the short term to do so. You Goons wouldn’t be going to prison had they done that. So we would all be better off had Motley Fool just done its job.

    That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event. I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, in any event.

    Death-Threat Critic Rob

  29. Anonymous says

    October 20, 2018 at 12:11 pm

    “And, yes, that is indeed a death threat.”

    THAT’S the so-called death threat you’ve been railing about all these years? No, indeed it is not a threat. It’s a discussion of guns and ammunition. The most a rational person could say is that it was off topic for the forum. Of course, society has abundantly documented the fact that you are not a rational person.

    I read the entire thread and you weren’t even mentioned. Only someone suffering from severe paranoia would interpret that discussion as a threat.

  30. Rob says

    October 20, 2018 at 12:26 pm

    A jury will decide the matter. That’s how our system works.

    I naturally wish you all good things.

    Severely Paranoid Rob

What’s Here

  • Bennett/Pfau Research (62)
  • Beyond Buy-and-Hold (117)
  • Bill Bengen & VII (8)
  • Bill Bernstein & VII (4)
  • Bill Schultheis & VII (2)
  • Brett Arends and VII (1)
  • Carl Richards & VII (8)
  • Daily Caller Articles (10)
  • Economics — New and Improved! (103)
  • Financial Highway Column (11)
  • From Buy/Hold to VII (394)
  • Guest Blog Entries (96)
  • Index Universe & VII (11)
  • Intimidation of VII Advocates (66)
  • Investing Basics (535)
  • Investing Experts (97)
  • Investing Strategy (56)
  • investing theory (23)
  • Investing: The New Rules (120)
  • Investor Psychology (95)
  • J.D. Roth & VII (17)
  • Joe Taxpayer & VII (14)
  • John Bogle & VII (97)
  • Larry Evans and VII (12)
  • Lindauer/Greaney Goons (475)
  • Michael Kitces & VII (43)
  • Mike Piper & VII (31)
  • Podcasts (200)
  • Reactions to Pfau Silencing (71)
  • Reality Checker (4)
  • Return Predictor (12)
  • Risk Evaluator (11)
  • Rob Arnott & VII (4)
  • Rob Bennett (306)
  • Rob E-Mails Seeking Help (67)
  • Rob's E-Mails to Researchers (1)
  • Robert Shiller & VII (105)
  • Roger Wohlner and VII (5)
  • Saving Strategies (23)
  • Scenario Surfer (3)
  • Scott Burns & VII (8)
  • Silencing of Wade Pfau (97)
  • Strategy Tester (5)
  • SWRs (89)
  • Todd Tresidder & VII (3)
  • Uncategorized (24)
  • Various Experts & VII (33)
  • VII Column (720)
  • Wall Street Corruption (363)
  • Warren Buffett & VII (5)

Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

    EZ Fat Footer #3

    This is Dynamik Widget Area. You can add content to this area by going to Appearance > Widgets in your WordPress Dashboard and adding new widgets to this area.

    Copyright © 2026 · Dynamik Website Builder on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in