Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
So you think that after the next economic disaster hits, the internet will become a kinder, gentler place. Wow.
In the investing realm, yes.
There’s a saying that “pride comes before a fall.” The discussion board community that now goes by the name “Bogleheads Forum” used to go by the name “Vanguard Diehards.” There was a lot that I related to in that name. I like fighters. That name suggests that the community was a group of people who were willing to fight for what they believed. You Goons fight. I like that about you. I have often wished that some of my Valuation-Informed Indexing friends had a bit more fight in them. There are positive things to be said for being a fighter.
But there are also negative things to be said about being a “diehard.” Diehards are arrogant. Diehards are not willing to admit mistakes. Diehards are not willing to listen carefully to others even when they are making good point and diehards thereby often miss out on wonderful learning experiences.
The Buy-and-Holders have engaged in corrupt acts. It doesn’t follow that they are corrupt through and through. I think that the Buy-and-Holders are good and smart people. They made a mistake. They got caught up in something bigger than them. They got caught in a trap. So what happens when they see the ocean of human misery that we all are going to see appear before us in the event that Shiller is right and we all experience a 50 percent price crash?
They are going to feel anguish when they see that. They are going to wonder if they got something wrong. Their hearts will soften a bit, Their minds will open a bit. They are going to be willing to entertain questions that today they are not willing to entertain. And we only need a little bit of an opening at this point to bring on a flood of powerful insights about how stock investing works in the real world. We are all going to enjoy 37 years of powerful advances in the space of a few months. There is a mountain of pent-up energy that will be put to work helping us all figure out this stuff. We will all be working together. There will be no more nastiness or friction.
You seem to think that because the Buy-and-Holders have closed minds today that they will always have closed minds. I just don’t see it. Their minds are closed today because they cannot bear the thought of looking at all the pain they have caused in the event that Shiller really is right. It’s an unbearable thought and so they shut it down. But there’s not going to be much point in shutting it down once we experience the crash. Then the ocean of human misery will be standing there before us. You can’t deny it when it is being written up in the newspaper each morning. At that point the defenses just get broken down and you are willing to look at what you need to look at to make the pain stop.
I have many times made the comparison between Buy-and-Hold and alcoholism. An alcoholic knows that he is ruining his life. It is foolishness to point out to him how self-destructive his behavior is because he knows that 50 times better than you do. He doesn’t want to face the problems. He doesn’t want to learn how to live without alcohol. That is his driver. There’s no logic to it. The behavior is 100 percent irrational. Alcoholics are diehards.
Now —
There’s a thing called “hitting bottom.” When an alcoholic hits bottom, he often changes. He gives up the rationalizations. He attend AA meetings. An alcoholic who hits bottom and develops a desire to change can become an amazingly productive person, a more productive person than he would have been had he never been an alcoholic in the first place.
If you believe that the Buy-and-Holders got into this with good intentions, as I do, then it follows that the most diehard Buy-and-Holders are going to become the most diehard Valuation-Informed Indexers after the crash. They truly believe in research, The last 37 years of research supports Valuation-Informed Indexing. The Buy-and-Holders are going to reconnect with their research-believing inclinations in the days following the next price crash, when the human misery that appears before their eyes forces them to reevaluate their belief that there is no need to practice price discipline when buying stocks.
I believe that investing boards and blogs will become kinder, gentler places in the days following the next price crash. I have some fears that there will be people attacking the Buy-and-Holders in those days. I am going to do everything in my power to stop that sort of thing. I think that would be a tragic mistake. My job is to pull us all together, to help us all see that we all benefit when we learn new things about how stock investing works. I believe that it can be done. And I believe that in many cases it will be my Buy-and-Hold friends helping me make it happen.
I believe that a good number of you Goons will flip eventually. You might be the last group to flip. I could see that being the case. But I could see you flipping eventually. I could see us working together in the days following the crash. Please consider the hill-and-valley pattern that stock prices have been following since the day the market was formed. Prices don’t start heading upward again until every last Buy-and-Holder gives up on Buy-and-Hold. You could never get to a P/E10 of 8 unless every last Buy-and-Holder gave up the fight. Have you considered how crazy it is for an entire nation to value its portfolios at half of their real value? It’s insane. More insane than the prices we see today. If that is going to happen again, as it has happened in the wake of every bull market that we have ever seen in history, it’s going to be because every last Buy-and-Holder has given up the fight. That includes you Goons.
So, yes, I think that our boards will be kinder, gentler places in the days following the crash. They will be sadder places too. People will look at the ruin we have caused and feel terrible about it. But you know what? We will get past that. We will eventually stop focusing on the ruin that we have caused and begin looking forward to all the good we can do by opening every board and blog to honest posting. And then we will return to the original Buy-and-Hold idea of using research to make ourselves better long-term investors. And then we will all be energized for the future.
It all comes down to what you think of the Buy-and-Holders. Do you think that they are good but mistaken re one key part of the investing story? Or do you think that they are corrupt and evil and stupid through and through? I believe that my Buy-and-Hold friends are good but mistaken on one key point. So I think that we can turn it all around in the days following the crash. I obviously wish that it were not necessary for us to live though a crash to get there. I now believe that that is the case. But, yes, I do believe that our boards and blogs will be kinder and gentler and more intelligent and more life-affirming places in those days.
Goon stuff is always going to be popular when prices are where they are today. I don’t believe that it will be so popular after a crash wipes out the retirement hopes of millions of middle-class people.
You may say that I’m a dreamer….
Dream-Believing Rob
Good news, Rob. The financial Samurai has started a new forum. You can get a fresh start on building a following for VII!
https://www.financialsamurai.com/welcome-to-the-financial-samurai-forum/
Thanks for the tip, Anonymous.
Take care, man.
Fresh Startin’ Rob
Can we expect a new era of Hocomania?
The research says what it says, Anonymous. I cannot change that and you cannot change that.
It will get out. Valuation-Informed Indexing is the future, Buy-and-Hold is the past.
I am not able to say precisely how or when it will get out. It’s obviously not solely me who decides that. If it were up to me, it would have happened on the afternoon of May 13, 2002.
But I am confident that it will happen on some day and at some time.
What you call Hocomania, I call Nobel-Prize-winning-peer-reviewed research. It will get out because it is too important that it get out for you to be able to hold it back indefinitely.
I will do my part, as I always have. But its not me alone who will decide how things go and when. There are millions of people who love this country. One of them will take action at some point as you have seen people work up the courage to take action in the past.
The good guys win in the end. Because they have to. We all need for the good guys to win. So as a society we will see to it. Eventually.
Or at least that’s my sincere take. We will have to wait to see how it all plays out to find out for sure.
My best wishes to you.
New Era Rob
Can we count on you for discussing the death threats and job threats over on this new board as well?
I never lead with the death threats and the job threats. The substantive stuff is what matters most and people hate to hear about the death threats and the job threats.
But as a society we have to deal with the death threats and job threats before the substantive stuff can get widely known. Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research 37 years ago. The obvious question that anyone asks when someone tells them about the realities of stock investing is: “Why haven’t I heard about this before?” It’s not possible to explain the 37-year cover-up without making reference to the death threats and job threats. It’s not possible to pull something like this off without death threats and job threats.
There are other things that help to explain the 37-year cover-up. Cognitive dissonance is a big one. The counter-intuitive nature of some of the realities. Just the fact that we don’t know it all. Ignorance. That’s a factor that should not be overlooked. I talk about that stuff. I don’t talk only about death threats and job threats. I never have and I never will.
My job is to tell the story. Death threats and job threats are part of the story. So I will tell about them when necessary and to the extent necessary. I try not to put too much emphasis on them Because they are not the entire story. I try to give them the right amount of attention, not too much and not too little.
I wish that there had never been any death threats or job threats. But that’s not the world we live in. That’s not the reality.
We don’t get fewer death threats and fewer job threats by ignoring them, by never talking about them. Ignoring them causes us to see more death threats and more job threats. I am 100 percent sure. Our problem has not been that we have talked too little about death threats and job threats. By not talking about those that have taken place, we have caused more of them to take place. Which is of course not the way that any of us want to take this. Which of course does not help any of us and which hurts every last one of us.
You can count on me to tell the story. It is always my aim to be as honest as possible without ever crossing the line and becoming uncharitable while also being as charitable as possible without ever crossing the line and becoming dishonest.
I hope that helps a small bit, dear Goon friend.
My best wishes to you.
Death Threat and Job Threat Discusser (But Only to the Extent Necessary to Tell a Story Important to All of Us) Rob
Okay, so you will be covering the death threats and job threats. How about the prison sentences, jury trials and settlement payments. Will we see that as well over at the new board?
Are you going to join that board? Simple yes or no question (for anyone but you.)
Because here’s your perfect opening to jump in: https://www.financialsamurai.com/forums/stocks-and-index-funds/is-the-stock-market-overvalued-(2018)/?PHPSESSID=2a63539d07049b1afa076276ef0b9557
“Hi everyone!
I’ve been struggling with investing recently, because I feel that the U.S. stock market is significantly overvalued. The problem is that I’ve felt this way for several years now, at least since 2015-2016. Yet, I can’t bring myself to be in it with a meaningful share of our family’s portfolio.
I understand that we can’t time the market perfectly, but I’m concerned about big losses. Mostly based on long-term value metrics like 10-year Shiller P/E.”
This guy is your soul mate. Are you going to share your wisdom or not?
I’ve never said anything about participating at any new boards. All of that is in your head.
The story will be told on the front page of the New York Times. Once it is told there, it will be common knowledge at all boards, old and new.
None of the things that you ask about are problems once they have been exposed. The problem is that people are embarrassed about them. And so people are reluctant to bring them up and people are reluctant to discuss them when they are brought up. They are now part of our history. Once death threats and job threats were used to stop us from learning about what the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research teaches us about how stock investing works, they became a part of our history as a nation. I did not do that and I cannot change that. My hope is that I can keep the prison sentences to a length shorter than they would otherwise be by exposing all the criminal stuff sooner than it might be exposed. That’s how I can play a positive role and so I hope that I can do that.
You’ll know everything that you need to know about the prison sentences at an appropriate time. For obvious reasons. If you want to help get things exposed, then help. If not, then watch to see how things play out. I will do everything in my power to help you out. But I will never cross the felony line myself.
But you of course knew all that.
Hang in there.
Prison-Sentence-Shortener Rob (and He Could Use Some Help With This Project!)
But you said you would do anything possible. It looks like that is all hot air and that you are no longer doing anything.
This guy is your soul mate. Are you going to share your wisdom or not?
That’s a good thread. But these issues affect everyone alive in very serious ways. I don’t think we are ever going to be in circumstances where we won’t be able to generate many. many good threads if as a society we work up the courage to overcome the Goon stuff.
I haven’t made any decision to join that board or not to join that board. I never even heard about it until tonight. I am not able to say one way or another at this time.
Indecisive Rob
“I haven’t made any decision to join that board”
You’ve said many times that spreading the word about VII is your job. Was that a joke? Not a very funny one.
But you said you would do anything possible. It looks like that is all hot air and that you are no longer doing anything.
I’m not all hot air. I have done more than anyone else alive to get the entire internet opened to honest posting re the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research. I’ve been working this for 16 years. And I will continue working it.
This issue isn’t like any other issue. If this were like any other issue, Greaney would have been given the boot at Motley Fool on the night when he put forward his first death threat. The same factors that kept Motley Fool from giving Greaney the boot on August 27, 2002, most likely apply at the board that you are pointing to today. So this is not a simple matter of putting forward a post that is responsive to the fellow’s question. If that’s all it took, we never would have seen any of the criminal stuff that you have been referring to.
We’ll get there. I am 100 percent sure. I don’t know whether the board that you are pointing to will play any role or not. It may be that we will not get to where we need to get to until after the next price crash. I put the odds that we can pull this off prior to the next crash at only 20 percent today. I would have put it at 90 percent on the evening of August 27, 2002. That change is based on what I have seen over the past 16 years.
I still believe that we will get there. But it is silly to treat this like an ordinary matter. In 1981, it could have been an ordinary matter. In 1981, Shiller’s findings were new and it would have been an ordinary thing for people at every board on the internet to be talking about them at that time (I understand that the internet was not around at that time). We can’t do it that way today. We need to explain why the implications of Shiller’s research findings have been ignored for 37 years. It makes lots of people look bad to talk now about things that all investors need to know that have been covered up for so long.
We will get there. The good guys win in the end. That’s what matters.
Good Guy Rob
You’ve said many times that spreading the word about VII is your job. Was that a joke? Not a very funny one.
I’ve answered your question.
Answer Man Rob
Ask Bogle why he has not made a public statement asking that the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies be promptly corrected.
That would be discussed at that board and everyone would from that day forward feel more comfortable talking about the realities once Bogle made that statement.
Had Bogle made a statement in 1981 acknowledging that there were now two schools of academic thought re how stock investing works, we never would have seen any of these problems. If he made a statement today, that would help. That’s the sort of thing we need. When there’s 37 years of peer-reviewed research showing that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies are in error, it shouldn’t be left to me to point that out at some discussion board. The big-name Buy-and-Holders should be letting everyone know about their mistake and about what they are going to do to provide damages to those who have been hurt by it.
Sincere Rob
Bogle isn’t the issue. Stop trying to deflect. The issue is whether you intend to do what YOU said is your job, to spread the word about VII.
“I have done more than anyone else alive”
And obviously it wasn’t enough. Do your job. Or admit that you can’t, and that you just spent 16 years spreading BS to pass the time.
Bogle is the issue. When he gives that speech and it is written up on the front page of the New York Times, that changes everything.
The owner at that site is no longer embarrassed once Bogle gives that speech. I can say what I believe without any problems once Bogle gives that speech. Your prison sentence stops getting longer once Bogle gives that speech. Every academic researcher feels free to follow his investigative journeys where his findings take him once Bogle gives that speech. Millions of middle-class people become liberated to plan their retirements effectively once Bogle gives that speech.
That’s no deflection. That’s the answer.
BS Spreading Rob
Why would Bogle need to give a speech just to make you happy? Why does he have to give a speech for you to be able to do anything?
I stand by my statement.
Rob
We stand by our statements.
Signed,
The rest of the world
Curse you, evil world!
You’re bad to the bone!
Ranting Rob