I’ve posted Entry #451 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Stronger the Suppression of Challenges to High Stock Prices, the Stronger the Panic Will Be When They Fall.
Juicy Excerpt: The bursting of the tech bubble and the collapse of the real estate market are economic developments that in ordinary circumstances would have brought market prices to their knees. It didn’t happen that way this time. It’s important to think through why that is. A Buy-and-Holder would cite the fact that prices did not fall hard and remain low for a long stretch of time as evidence that there is no need for historical norms to reassert themselves. A Valuation-Informed Indexer would offer a different interpretation.
Here is an interesting article:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-bull-market-ever-yet-disaster-looms-for-millions-of-retirees-2019-07-18
I guess all those millions of middle class investors you talk about won’t really have to worry since they own little to no stock.
If they don’t have savings, they obviously have a lot to worry about.
But I don’t agree with the suggestion in the article that people need to make a killing in the market to be able to retire. The U.S. market has been providing gains of 6.5 percent real per year for 150 years now. I think that’s just fine. Insisting that you need more than that is playing Get Rich Quick games. I believe in going with the reseach and counting what’s real and not counting what’s not real.
The Get Rich Quick/ Buy-and-Hold stuff has no appeal to me, Anonymous. It once did. Once upon a time, I fell for it, just like millions of others. But not today. When I saw 200 Buy-and-Holders endorse Greaney’s death threats, I knew that it was garbage. From August 27, 2002, forward, I’ve been a Valuation-Informed Indexer. My confidence in research-based strategies grows stronger and stronger. I have never looked back.
Rob
“When I saw 200 Buy-and-Holders endorse Greaney’s death threats, I knew that it was garbage. ”
If you can provide me with a link to the actual death threat the the 200 endorsements, I will personally apologize to you on this board. I will then call Wade Pfau and tell him that he should start working with you again. Next, I will contact the New York Times and tell them to feature you on the front page. Lastly, I will change my entire investment strategy to that of VII.
Okay, so let’s see the link to the actual death threat. Unless there is no death threat. If you don’t provide a link, I can only assume that there never was a death threat and then you owe everyone out there an apology for lying about it all these years.
I will wait for your response.
I could provide a link. But there is nothing that I can do to hold you to the promises that you make above. If you were a person who kept his promises, we never would have seen the death threats in the first place. You were required to promise to follow the published rules of the Motley Fool site before you were permitted to post there.
I have provided links in the past and it never accomplished anything. I need others to help me insure that there are consequences that follow when you engage in criminal behavior. I have not been able to get others to do that for 17 years now. The trouble is that many people want to believe that the numbers on their portfolio statement are real and rationalize away your behavior. They tell themselves that it is not a big deal. Others do not like the abusive behavior and would like to be able to participate in civil discussions of the last 38 years of research. But people in that group are afraid to speak up because they have seen you behave in the way that you do and they have seen you suffer no consequences and they are thus afraid to call you out on your b.s.
The question is — Will all this change in the days following the next price crash? I believe that it will. I believe that providing links then will bring results. And so I will supply them then.
For now, people can look at your comments here and figure out what the problem is. It’s not at all hard for any fair-minded person to get the general idea. If there are not enough of us today to take us to where we all deep in our hearts want to go, that of course makes me sad. But I continue to believe that there will be enough down the line a bit. So we will all move forward then.
I wish you all good things.
Rob
Forgive me for doubting you, but your record is not that great in this area. Take this link for example:
http://arichlife.passionsaving.com/2009/01/22/my-e-mail-to-the-virginia-police-re-the-campaign-of-terror-against-our-board-communities/
With the first link, you appear to make the claim that this is a threat against you. Yet, when we open the link and read the post as well as responding posts, we see that this is an ongoing discussion of board members discussion firearms for home protection. There is even a section at the end of the first post reminding people of gun safety rules.
Certainly, you have something substantive to support your ongoing claim of death threats. If this is all you have, then it is an outright lie.
Are you okay with letting the members of your jury make that call, Anonymous? That’s how it works in our system.
Rob