I’ve added Podcast #7 to the “RobCasts” sectionn of the site. This one is entitled I Know More About Investing than John Bogle (and You Can Too!)
Today’s Passion: The Podcast makes reference to the time when I announced plans to attend a meeting of the Vanguard Diehards at which I would have been able to ask Bogle questions about his views on the effect of valuations on long-term stock returns. Surprisingly enough, some took exception to this idea. And I ended up writing a blog entry on The Questions Bogle Wasn’t Asked at the Vanguard Diehards Meeting.
That person was right when he mentioned a “sport” for PhDs. The jargon in many studies is so convoluted as to make them unreadable.
How many times have you seen that a higher reward implies greater risk? [For example, in explaining the value premium.] That way of thinking is ridiculous, of course, but I have seen it too many times. The Efficient Market Hypothesis FORCES a convoluted way of thinking.
Common sense says otherwise.
Have fun.
John Walter Russell
The Efficient Market Hypothesis FORCES a convoluted way of thinking.
You and I see eye to eye re this one, John.
There was a day when the Efficient Market Hypothesis led us to some good places.
That day is long behind us now.
People need to work up the courage to call a spade a spade and to call a failed model for understanding how stock investing works a failed model for understanding how stock investing works.
It’s over. People (including the big-name experts) need to give it up.
Rob