Critique: Does Long-Term Market Timing Really Work?

Shadox at the Money and Such blog recently posted a blog entry entitled Critique: Does Long-Term Market Timing Really Work?

Juicy Excerpt: I tend to be skeptical of theories that are built on the assumption that everyone else is subject to mass delusion, hypnosis or hysteria, yet we seem to be the only ones retaining our sanity and keeping our wits. It just doesn’t feel right.

Michael Harr argued in a comment that Valuation-Informed Indexing reduces risk but does not yield great returns.

Juicy Excerpt: There is no published study that I’ve seen to date that supports a superior return from Rob’s strategy that I liken to dynamic asset allocation. However, there is a load of evidence that it reduces the risk in a portfolio.