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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

Navigation Menu 
  • About Us
    • Rob’s Bio
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  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
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    • Why Your Money or Your Life Rocked the World
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  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never WorkThe Buy-and-Holders are not evil people. They are smart and good people. They made a mistake. They were so excited about their early findings that they experienced cognitive dissonance when the mistake was revealed. They painted themselves into a corner and now don’t know how to get out. This article explains how the mistake was made and how we came to find ourselves in the trap we are in today.
    • About Valuation-Informed IndexingBackground, Basics and Links to Materials Giving More In-Depth Information
    • The Stock-Return PredictorStocks are NOT always worth buying. That’s a Wall Street lie! This calculator performs a regression analysis on the 140 years of historical stock-return data to reveal the most likely annualized 10-year return for stocks starting from any valuation level. It essentially tells you the price tag for stocks so that you can know whether they are worth buying or not.
    • The Retirement Risk EvaluatorRob pointed out the errors in the Old School safe withdrawal rate studies in May 2002. That post kicked off the biggest controversy in the history of the internet. Today, The Wall Street Journal, Smart Money and The Economist all acknowledge that Rob had it right all along. But they still don’t provide calculators that give the right numbers! The safe withdrawal rate is not a constant number but VARIES with changes in the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. This calculator provides all the details you need for effective planning.
    • The Investor’s Scenario SurferI have run this calculator hundreds of time. it is in my assessment the most powerful tool for learning how stock investing works available today. You have the option of choosing a new stock allocation in each year of a realistic 30-year sequence of returns. You can compare your results with what you would have achieved with a Buy-and-Hold strategy. You will find that Valuation-Informed Indexing strategies yield larger portfolios in 90 percent of your tests of the concept. What matters is what happens in the long term! This tool tells you what strategies give the best results in the long term.
    • The Investment Strategy TesterIf you are worried about losses you have suffered in recent years, you can use this tool to learn what you need to do to get back on the track to early financial freedom. The Strategy Tester lets you design a strategy you want to check out. Then it runs the hundreds of Scenario Surfer tests to see how the strategy compares with other possibilities you identify. The color-coded graphic gives you a good idea of what the odds are of good and bad outcomes for up to four investing strategies at a time.
    • The Returns Sequence Reality CheckerWe all root for price gains in the stock market. Should we? This calculator says “no!” Today’s price increase lowers tomorrow’s price increase. This has been so for the entire history of the market. So the question is whether you should want to pay more for stocks now or later. You are far better off paying more later because that means you get to acquire more gain-producing goodness earlier in life and thus you will enjoy more compounding return magic. This one will blow your mind. It’s a very simple concept but a highly counter-intutive one and one that will someday soon change how we all think about stock investing.
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation StrategiesThis is the most popular of the 200 hour-long RobCasts that I provide at the site. It explores the nuts-and-bolts aspects of Valuation-Informed Indexing — How often do you change your allocation and by how much?
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing StrategiesMy aim is to get this story reported on the front page of the New York Times. On the day that happens, all the nastiness will stop. We will all be working together to bring the economic crisis to an end and to enter the greatest period of economic growth in our history.
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser VersionThis is a briefer version of the same article, the article that I believe is the most important one that I have written in my 30-year journalism career. I believe that the story told at this web site is the most important economic and political story of any of our lifetimes and this article sums up the key points in one little package of dynamite. If Buy-and-Hold were a legitimate strategy, every Buy-and-Holder would be ashamed to learn that even one academic researcher was threatened. We cannot move forward so long as the intimidation tactics of the Buy-and-Holders dominate all discussions of what works in stock investing. I use this short version of the article in my e-mail campaigns aimed at getting researcher and stock advisors and bloggers and journalists and policymakers involved in our effort to open the internet up to honest posting on ALL investing topics. Please help get others involved if you can. We are all in this together!
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau StoryThis article provides links to all of my reports on my 16 months of correspondence with Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, the collaboration that produced the research we co-authored that shows millions of middle-class investors how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent (Ssshh! The Wall Street Con Men don’t want this one getting out!) If you retain doubts re whether Valuation-Informed Indexing is a real thing, looking over the materials available at this page and then reading a few of the reports that strike you as particularly important will dispel them. I believe that Wade will someday win a Nobel prize for the work he did here. The reports show his own skepticism and his transformed into excited BELIEVER in the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept.
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 PercentYou do not have to take on a large amount of risk to obtain good returns. Why should you? When you buy an index fund, you are buying a tin share in the productivity of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy has been sufficiently productive to support an average annual stock return of 6.5 percent real for 140 years now. So that’s what you can expect if you invest in a sensible way. But you are not being sensible if you follow a Buy-and-Hold strategy. You MUST consider price when buying stocks just as much as you must consider price when buying anything else. This is the most important investing research published in 30 years. It frees all of us from dependence on Wall Street “experts.”
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic CrisisThe first step to curing an illness is coming up with a correct diagnosis. What we have been hearing thus far about what caused the economic crisis is Democrats yelling at Republicans and Republicans yelling at Democrats. This political attack-game gibberish will not cut it. We borrowed huge amounts of money from our future selves to finance the insane bull of the late 1990s. Now we are our future selves! Now we are paying the price! It hurts to know we caused this. Buy you know what? We never have to suffer through something like this again once we acknowledge the realities.
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and AnswersYale Economics Professor Robert Shiller predicted the economic crisis in his book “Irrational Exuberance,” published in March 2000. How did he know? Shiller knows how stock investing works. He knows that the Pretend Money created during times of overvaluation ALWAYS disappears over the course of 10 years or so. When that money disappears from our portfolios, we cannot afford to spend as much. So tens of thousands of businesses fail and millions lose their jobs. We avoid economic crises by avoiding out-of-control bull markets. We avoid out-of-control bull markets by letting investors know the truth — When stocks are selling at insanely inflated prices, they offer a very poor long-term value proposition. The lies that Wall Street tells about stocks are destroying out free-market economic system.
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on ValuationsLots of people hate me. There was a time when I was receiving fresh death threats in my e-mail inbox on an almost daily basis. But lots of people love me too. Thousands of my fellow community members have told me that I am the first person who ever described how stock investing works in a way that truly hangs together. This article offers 101 comments of my fellow community members asking the Buy-and-Holders to knock off the funny business and permit civil and reasoned discussion of the last 30 years of peer-reviewed academic research. This article reveals the emotionalism of the Buy-and-Holders and it is the fact that Buy-and-Hold causes such emotionalism that tells me that it can never work in the long run.
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed IndexingLot of smart people know that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage. They are afraid to speak out today because they know what will happen to them if they do. But they try to position themselves for the post-next-crash period, when “Buy-and-Hold” will be an obscene phrase. Bret Arends tells us that the Wall Street Con Men “are leaving out half the story.” Precisely so. The purpose of this web site is to let you in on the half of the story that the Wall Street Con Men have been keeping from you for 32 years now.

“I’d Respectfully But Firmly Ask That You Stop Posting Comments on the Topic of the Morningstar Dispute”

September 26, 2010 By Rob

Yesterday’s blog entry set forth the texts of e-mails between Jim Wiandt and me re an article that I wrote on Valuation-Informed Indexing for the www.IndexUniverse.com site. Those e-mails were sent on January 28, 2008. The two e-mails below were sent on the following day. The first was sent by Matt Hougan, who served as site administrator for discussions held at the site’s forum. The second was my response to Matt.

Mr. Bennett –

We’ve worked very hard to create a professional, informative Web site focused on indexes, index funds and ETFs.  Our discussion boards are a key part of that site, and we are committed to keeping the discussions there respectful and topical.

I’m not intimately involved in your dispute with the Diehards board, and I’m not taking one side or the other. I do not, however, want our discussion boards to become the forum for interpersonal disputes between you and other posters. I want to keep the forum open, but some of the recent posts by both you and others have crossed the line of civility. I’m going to delete many of the posts in the recent thread, which I have discretion to do as moderator.

I’d respectfully but firmly ask that you stop posting any comments related to the topic of the Morningstar dispute.

Best regards,

Matt Hougan

Matt:

I have never put forward a post that crosses the line of civility. I never will.

You do not need to be “intimately involved” in a “dispute” to know that making death threats is wrong.

If you want to set up an arrangement in which I notify you promptly when someone posts abusively on a thread at which I am participating, I would be happy to go along with that. Please just let me know any details of how you would like to proceed and I will do my best to make things work for all the people who are trying to learn about the subject of index investing. Those are the people I am concerned about.

Rob

Related Posts

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  • Rob Bennett to Morningstar Site Administrator: “The Greaney Supporters Openly Discuss Tactics for Disrupting Morningstar Threads….They Have Taken Comfort in the Posts by Mel [Lindauer]”Rob Bennett to Morningstar Site Administrator: “The Greaney Supporters Openly Discuss Tactics for Disrupting Morningstar Threads….They Have Taken Comfort in the Posts by Mel [Lindauer]”
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Filed Under: Index Universe & VII Tagged With: Bogleheads, Index Universe, Morningstar, Vanguard Diehards

Browse Index Universe & VII

  • "This Is What All the Fuss Is About?" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence that I had with www.IndexUniverse.com in an effort to have an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Jim Wiandt on January 29, 2008, and Jim's response. Jim: I've written an article entitled "A New Approach to 'Staying the Course' " and attached it to this e-mail. I write on an Apple, and I presume that you will not be able to read a file written…

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    Recent blog entries have reported on my e-mail correspondence with www.IndexUniverse.com in which I tried to get an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Jim Wiandt on January 30, 2008, and Jim's response. Jim: I'll send an e-mail to Matt to connect with him on this (we have already exchanged a few e-mails on the problem of the abusive posters). Yes, this is what the "fuss" is about. I of course…

  • “Rob, You Should Consider That Your Image Is Very Damaged” 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on the texts of e-mail correspondence that I had with Jim Wiandt and Matt Hougan in an effort to get an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the  www.IndexUniverse.com site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Matt on January 29, 2008, and his response. Matt: Here is the text of an abusive post recently added to the thread on the article re the Bogleheads: Rob, you should consider that your image is very damaged and…

  • "Give Me a Few Days to Chew On It....We'll Figure Out Something" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence that I have had with www.IndexUniverse.com re an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing that I sought to have published at the site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail sent to me by Matt Hougan on February 6, 2008, follow-ups from me to him and Jim Wiandt sent on February 6, February 11, February 21, and February 26 and February 29, and a response from Matt sent on February 29. Rob - Thanks for the response. Give me a few days to…

  • "If It's Good, and If It's Pertinent, We'll Run It" 1 Comment

    I will report in the next few blog entries on my correspondence between Jim Wiandt and Matthew Hougan of the www.IndexUniverse.com site (Jim is the publisher and Matt is the editor). This correspondence took place in January and February of 2008. The background is that an article appeared at the site on the formation of www.Bogleheads.org forum. The article failed to mention the primary purpose of the formation of the forum. I had been posting honestly at the Vanguard Diehards forum (at…

  • "I’d Respectfully But Firmly Ask That You Stop Posting Comments on the Topic of the Morningstar Dispute" 0 Comments

    Yesterday's blog entry set forth the texts of e-mails between Jim Wiandt and me re an article that I wrote on Valuation-Informed Indexing for the www.IndexUniverse.com site. Those e-mails were sent on January 28, 2008. The two e-mails below were sent on the following day. The first was sent by Matt Hougan, who served as site administrator for discussions held at the site's forum. The second was my response to Matt. Mr. Bennett – We’ve worked very hard to create a professional,…

  • "Thanks for the Information, Rob" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence that I engaged in with people at the www.IndexUniverse.com site in an effort to get an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below are the texts of an e-mail that I sent to Matt Hougan on February 29, 2008, and one that he sent me on March 1, 2008. Matt: As I have noted before, I am always happy to respond to any particular questions or concerns. But it is obviously not possible to put forward all of…

  • "The Best Way to Proceed Is to Permit Readers to Hear Both Sides and to Decide for Themselves" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence that I have had with www.IndexUniverse.com in an effort to get an article relating to Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Matt Hougan on February 6, 2008. Matt: Thanks so much for your frankness in your response. That's a huge help. I of course agree that the insight that drives the Valuation-Informed Indexing approach is nothing more than common sense. It IS…

  • "It Would Need a Dose of Academic Rigor" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on my correspondence with www.IndexUniverse.com in an effort to have an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below are the texts of one e-mail that I sent on on January 30, 2008, one that I sent on February, 2008, and one that I sent on February 5, 2008, followed by one sent by Jim Wiandt on February 5, 2008, and one sent by Matt Hougan on February 5, 2008. Matt: I have submitted an article to Jim Wiandt entitled "A New…

  • "By Failing to Follow the Published Rules of the Site, You Send the Goons a Signal That You Are Weak" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence that I had with www.IndexUniverse.com in an effort to have an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Matt Hougan on January 29, 2008. Matt: That sends exactly the wrong signal. The Goons who destroyed the Vanguard Diehards board are watching what you do to see what they can get away with. The purpose of the abusive posting on this thread was to have the…

  • "You Are a Lightening Rod of Controversy" 0 Comments

    Recent blog entries have reported on my correspondence with www.IndexUniverse.com in an effort to have an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing published at the site. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Matt Hougan on February 5, 2008, and his response, sent the following day. Matt: Thanks for your response. This particular article was intended as an introduction to the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept, not as a complete and total proof that it is the way to…

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  • “If the CEO of a Cookie-Manufacturing Company Told You That the Fact That You Have Been Eating Three Boxes of Cookies Every Night for 30 Years and You’re Not Dead Yet Proves That Eating Three Boxes of Cookies Every Night Is “100 Percent Safe,” Would You Believe Him?”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: You made the same comments 5 years ago and were wrong.  You made the same comments and were wrong.  You made the same comments 20 years ago and were wrong.  Meanwhile, you think it is reasonable to expect a $500 million windfall for nothing. I was never wrong. I said that Shiller’s Nobel-prize winning research shows that valuations affect long-term returns. I still say that. If the ceo of a cookie-manufacturing company told you that the fact that you have been eating three boxes of cookies every night for 30 years and you’re not dead yet proves that eating three boxes of cookies every night is “100 percent safe,” would you believe him? Rob Related Posts“The Bennett/Pfau Research Shows That Market Timing Is 70 Percent of What It Takes to Achieve Long-Term Stock Investing Success. So 70 Percent of What We Hear From Investment Experts Should Be Telling Us Ways to Avoid Getting Sucked in By the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold Garbage.”“This Is a Field Where People Don’t Admit Their Mistakes. The ‘Experts’ in This Field Feel That They Need to Persuade Their Clients That They Are Super-Human and Thus Incapable of Making Mistakes. It’s Not So. And We Are All Suffering in Serious Ways As a Result.”” Wade Pfau Was Afraid to Post at the Bogleheads Forum Because of the Abusiveness He Saw From You Goons Whenever I or Someone Else Discussed Shiller’s Research and the Many Important Implications That Follow From It. Wade Is in Very Good Company re His Fearfulness. Once We Send a Clear Message That It Is Safe for Everyone Working in This Field to Express His or Her Sincere Views, No One Will Be Holding Back.”“There’s No Such Thing as an Expertise That Remains Forever. It Was One Thing to Believe in Buy-and-Hold in 1980. It’s Something Very Different to Believe in it 44 Years After Shiller Published His Nobel-Prize-Winning Research. What Kind of Expert Can Someone Be Who Is 44 Years Behind in His Reading of the Peer-Reviewed Research? ““Say That There Were Only 100 Million Investors in the World. That Would be $5 from Each of Them. I Think it Would be Fair to Say that There Won’t be One Investor in the World Not Getting a Whole Lot […]

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  • “You Don’t Think Your Problem Has Anything To Do With the Fact That You Have Been Unemployed for 25 Years?”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: You don’t think your problem has anything to do with the fact that you have been unemployed for 25 years?  Your website indicates that you made the decision to quit your job and you have also posted that you don’t want to get a job since you are still working on the same book for over a decade.  How is this anyone else’s fault but your own? I do not. I haven’t been unemployed for a single day. I work as a self-employed journalist working to get every site on the internet opened to honest posting re the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. It’s the most important journalism project of my lifetime and, once I have achieved the goal, it will put me at the top of my field and i will have zero financial problems. Rob Related Posts“Most People Who Agree With Shiller Hold Back From Exploring All the Implications of His Ideas Publicly. That’s Why Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Only Won Over 20 Percent of the Population in 34 Years. I Want It to Win Over 100 Percent of the Population. So I Say Things in the Way in Which They Must Be Said for Us to Get to 100 Percent.”“I Certainly Am Not Going to Demand Prison Sentences If Most Others Do Not See a Need for Them.”Goon Poster to Rob: “Any Wife Would Be Saddened by a Husband Who Is Capable of Working But Hasn’t ‘Made a Dime in 13 Years.’ Since You Acknowledge That Fact, To What Extent (If Any) Does It Bother You?”“As Of Today, I Honestly Do Not Feel That I Have Ever Been Unfairly Harsh in My Dealings With You Goons. But I Also Think That It Is Possible That There Are Things That I Just Cannot See Because of My Human Limitations. I May Look Through Some Earlier Discussions and See If I Can Identify Places Where I Have Been Unfair or Unkind. If I Can, I Hope That I Will Have the Courage to Own Up to Them Publicly.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “Valuation-Informed Indexing Failed. You Have Been Wrong. You Just Can’t Bring Yourself to Ever Admit It Because Then You Would Have to Admit That the Last Two Decades of Your Life […]

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  • “You Wouldn’t Expect Everyone to Make the Switch to the Superior Strategy in 24 Hours. People Need to Have Discussions and Ask Questions Before They Feel Comfortable Making the Change.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Funny how all the people you talk about are all financially successful, yet you are the only one broke.  Yet some you think people should take your advice. Any financial issues I have experienced are because of abusive posting on the part of Buy-and-Holders. Buy-and-Holders obviously don’t have to deal with that problem. Buy-and-Hold was developed in the 1960s. Shiller’s Nobel-price-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns hadn’t yet been published. You wouldn’t expect everyone to make the switch to the superior strategy in 24 hours. People need to have discussions and ask questions before they feel comfortable making the change. Because of the abusiveness of the Buy-and-Holders, that has never happened. We are stuck where we were prior to the publication of Shiller’s amazing research. To move forward (which benefits everyone!), we need to open every site to honest posting re the peer-reviewed research. I think we will make it in time. I believe that we are a fundamentally good people. We have seen that even many Buy-and-Holders (people like Bernstein and Bogle before he died) see the merit of permitting honest posting. Rob Related Posts“Shiller Showed Us That It Is Primarily INVESTOR EMOTION That Determines Stock Prices, Not Economic Developments. So We All Need to Make a Switch to Talking Primarily About Investor Emotion. We Should Be Looking for Signs of Emotion and Then Trying to Explain Them.”“Even I Am Suffering from Cognitive Dissonance to Some Degree. I See Lots of Stuff That Most Others Do Not See Today. But I Do Not See It All. That Will Come Only When Lots of Other See More Than They See Today. We All Learn From Each Other.”“The Losses That We Need to Cover as a Result of the Continued Promotion of Buy-and-Hold ‘Strategies’ are $24 Trillion, $6 Trillion More Than the Entire Federal Debt of $18 Trillion, Constituting All the Annual Budget Deficits Going Back to the Days of George Washington Added Together. Buy-and-Hold Is Truly Bad Stuff.”Valuation-Informed Indexing #262: The Unpredictability of Short-Term Return Sequences Masks the Predictability of Long-Term Returns “We Will All Be in a Better Place When I Can Go to Any Discussion Board or Blog on the Internet and Post With 100 Percent Honesty and Not Have Any Concern […]

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  • “30 Years to Build a Multi-Million Portfolio Is Not Get Rich Quick.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: 30 years to build a multimillion portfolio is not get rich quick.  Meanwhile. Going broke and staying unemployed for 2 decades is insanity. It is Get Rich Quick if you are counting amounts that are due to irrational exuberance as if they are real. Today stocks are priced at two times their real value. So those counting irrational exuberance as real are pretending that their accumulated wealth is two times what it really is. Is that not a Get Rich Quick approach? Someone with $500,000 of wealth tells himself that he has $1,000,000 and makes financial plans as if that were the case? Huh? Someone who has been building his portfolio for 30 years has experienced a great deal of real economic gains over the years. None of that is the product of Get Rich Quick thinking. But if he doesn’t make an adjustment for irrational exuberance at a time when valuations are insanely high, that’s extremely dangerous. It’s high-emotion behavior. Someone who hands in a resignation to a high-paying corporate job because he believes that irrational exuberance gains are real is hurting himself in a very serious way. I believe that we should permit honest posting re the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research at every site. I am not able to imagine any possible downside. Rob Related PostsBuy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “Taking 30 Years to Build Up $6.3 Million Is a Get Rich Quick Scheme? Really?”Goon Poster to Rob: “Are You Suggesting that the Wall Street Institutions That Set Stock Prices Don’t Have Access to the Same Information as You?”“People Who Achieve Wealth by Treating Irrational Exuberance as Real are Highly Vulnerable. All that it Takes is Honest and Open Discussion of the Last 39 Years of Peer-Reviewed Research in this Field for Their Wealth to Disappear. Shiller’s Amazing Research Has So Far Only Convinced 10 Percent of the Population because 90 Percent of the Population Views that Research as a Threat to Their Financial Well-Being.”“While the Intellectual Support for Buy-and-Hold/Get Rich Quick Is Precisely Zero, the Institutional Support for It Is Huge. For the Buy-and-Holders to Come Clean, They Not Only Have to Acknowledge Their Initial Mistake, Which Is No Big Deal, but Also the 42-Year Cover-Up of the Mistake, Which Makes Them […]

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  • “The Greaney Retirement Study Hasn’t Been Corrected in 23 Years. There’s No Way That That Could Happen Without a Lot of Funny Business Going Down.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: You have made the allegations of criminal acts, yet you won’t show links to those criminal acts and you won’t file chart. What are you hiding? All that you have to do is to look at the Greaney retirement study and see if you can find a valuation adjustment in it. There isn’t one. I pointed that out in a post that I put to the Motley Fool board on May 13, 2002. It hasn’t been corrected in 23 years. There’s no way that that could happen without a lot of funny business going down. That’s the story. We can all live better lives from this point forward by opening every site to honest posting re the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research. Or we can continue to pretend that there’s no need to practice valuation-based market timing when prices begin to get out of hand. I vote for permitting honest posting. Rob Related Posts“The Reason Why This Situation Has Gotten So Out of Control Is Because We All Like the Pretend Money That Results From Letting Stock Prices Get Insanely High. It’s Never Going to Change For So Long As We Focus Solely on Being Popular and Not At All on Being Honest.”“The Easiest Way to Find Out If There Has Been Some Funny Business Going On Is To Check How Long It Took Greaney To Correct the Error in His Retirement Study After It Was Pointed Out To Him.”“I Pointed Out the Error in the Greaney Retirement Study on the Morning of May 13, 2002 (It Lacks a Valuation Adjustment). It Hasn’t Been Corrected to This Day, Please Explain.”“If It Weren’t for the 42-Year Cover-Up, the Buy-and-Holders Would Be United in Insisting that Greaney Correct the Study Immediately. But That Would Expose the Entire Cover-Up, in Which Everyone Who Works in This Field Is Involved to at Least a Small Degree (Everyone Who Works in the Field Has a Responsbility to Stay Up to Date With the Peer-Reviewed Research).”“I Believe in Occam’s Razor Too. When You Point Out an Error in a Study That Thousands of People Have Used to Plan Their Retirements and It Remains Uncorrected for Over 17 Years, There Is Some Sort of Funny Business Going On.”“Everyone Who Was Aware of […]

    (4 Comments)

  • “The Get Rich Quick Psychology That Causes People to Believe That Their Stock Portfolio Is Worth More Than What the Peer-Reviewed Research Says It Is Worth Also Affects Their Views on Legal Actions.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: If you think laws have been broken, then file charges.  Otherwise, we know those are just more made up things. The Get Rich Quick psychology that causes people to believe that their stock portfolio is worth more than what the peer-reviewed research says it is worth also affects their views on legal actions. When we solve one of these problems, we will have solved all of them. As of today, all that we have is the peer-reviewed research we need to understand what is going on. The next step is to give ourselves permission to discuss it at every internet site. Then we will be on our way to lots of wonderful advances. Rob Related Posts“The Statute of Limitations Doesn’t Begin Running Until Every Site Has Been Opened to Honest Posting re the Peer-Reviewed Research Because the Fraud Remains an Ongoing Matter Until That Happens.”“The Fact That Wade Pfau Won’t Speak to Me Today Definitely Tells a Tale That Needs to Be Widely Told.”Valuation-Informed Indexing #265: P/E10 Permits Us to Quantify Investor Emotion“After the 2008 Crisis Got Me Thinking That There Has to Be a Better Way to Invest, I Started Doing a Lot of Financial Research. The Thing That Disturbed Me the Most Is That Most of Them Were Saying the Same Thing. People Work So Very Hard for Their Money, Usually for 40/50 Year and Usually at Jobs They Don’t Particularly Enjoy. They Need to Have the Respect of the Financial Industry to Be Given, At the Very Least, Access to All Information As It Pertains to Investing.”“There Is No Intellectual Controversy Here. All of the Evidence Is On One Side and There Is Zero Evidence on the Other. What We Have Is a Power Imbalance. The Wall Street Con Men Have More Power and Money and Connections Than the Rest of Us and They Have Demonstrated a Ruthless Willingness to Destroy Anyone Who Exposes Their Con. This Is About Power, Not Research.”Goon Poster to Rob: “Are You Suggesting that the Wall Street Institutions That Set Stock Prices Don’t Have Access to the Same Information as You?”

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  • “It Is Just Too Weird to Have One Set of Laws That Applies to Everything Outside of the Investment Advice Field and an Entirely Different Set of Laws that Applies in the Investment Advice Field.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: ……………you do know that this is what the whole discussion is about, right?  We need to have those millions in our account by the time we turn 60.  Being broke in your 60’s is what is the biggest concern. The purpose of peer-reviewed research is to help us all to build our retirement accounts as big as possible as quickly as possible. The fact that a good number of Buy-and-Holders are hotly opposed to the discussion of the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research is a very bad sign for Buy-and-Hold. It’s certainly not all Buy-and-Holders that feels that way, it’s about 10 percent who engage in abusive and in come cases criminal behavior. But the 90 percent of Normals have not spoken up strongly enough in opposition to the tactics that you Goons employ to suppress learning experiences. If Buy-and-Hold were a real thing, we never would have seen a single abusive post. I mean, come on. I don’t say that the Buy-and-Holders always knew that valuation-based market timing was of critical importance. But they certainly knew that Shiller had done something important and that we all should have been discussing the far-reaching implications of his Nobel-prize-winning research going back to the day it was published. I believe that we are fundamentally a good people. I believe that we will get there. I think it is just too weird to have one sets of laws that applies to everything outside of the investment advice field and an entirely different set of laws that applies in the investment advice field. We’ll see. Rob Related Posts“If Buy-and-Hold Were a Real Thing, We Never Would Have Seen a Single Abusive Post, Much Less Any of the Criminal Stuff.”“I Don’t Think That Buy-and-Hold Started out As a Scam. Prior to 1981, It Was Just a Mistake That Was Made Because All of the Research Needed to Know the Realities Had Not Yet Been Published, Today, Buy-and-Hold Is a Scam. The Much Bigger Problem Today Is That, Because the Buy-and-Holders Do Not Want People to Know About the 39-Year Cover-Up of Their Error, They Have Engaged in Criminal Behavior to Stop Anyone Else From Reporting Accurate Numbers.”“When Someone Like Jack Bogle Fails to Speak Out About Prison Sentences When That […]

    (6 Comments)

  • “You Went Broke. I Have Millions. End of Story.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: I learn by looking at results. You went broke. I have millions. End of story. Um…. Rob Related PostsBuy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “Nothing You Say Is accurate or Factually Based. It Is Just Your Opinion. End of Story.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “It’s Not What You Say About Yourself. It Is What Others Say. You Have to Learn How to Deal With That Reality.”“No One Fights This Hard to Block a Non-Story From Getting Out”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “We Are Still Waiting for You to Say Those Words. Until Then, Expect to See the Same Horrible Results.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “Timing Has Never Worked for You or Anyone Else.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: Just Because You Were Able to Browbeat Wade Into Emailing the Trinity Guys Doesn’t Mean I’ll Do Your Bidding Too. Set Up Your Own Damn Forum.”

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  • “I Believe That Shiller’s Nobel-Prize-Winning Research Showing that Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Was Something New.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Some of us know how stock investing works.  Unfortunately, broke market timers still haven’t figured it out.  Your assessment has a 20+ year track record of failure. And there’s zero chance that you could ever learn anything new? All of the peer-reviewed research that we would ever need was published prior to the day the Buy-and-Hold strategy was developed? I don’t buy it, Anonymous. I believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research showing that valuations affect long-term returns was something new. I believe that we need to incorporate that research into our thinking. Take Buy-and-Hold and add the last 44 years of peer-reviewed research and you have Valuation-Informed Indexing. Rob Related Posts“Are You Willing to Say What You Believe Shiller Thinks About Safe Withdrawal Rates?”“The Reason Why People Cannot Stand to Learn What Shiller Showed Us Is That His Stuff Is Such a Huge Advance Over Buy-and-Hold That We Cannot Bear to Acknowledge the Mistake We Made As a Society When We Elected to Spend Hundreds of Millions of Dollars Promoting Buy-and-Hold Strategies. Shiller is the Steve Jobs of Personal Finance. But We Don’t Have IPhones in This Field Today! Because He Is Too Shy to Speak Out About His Huge Achievements!”“What I Am Doing In Demanding Recognition of Everyone’s Right to Post Honestly Is As Important As What Shiller Did in Publishing His Revolutionary Research. Shiller Got Us Where We Need to Go Intellectually. I Am Getting Us Where We Need to Go in the Practical Realm. Shiller Did Amazing Work. But Millions of Investors Are Today Completely in the Dark re the IMPLICATIONS of His Amazing Work.”“Lots of People Have a Hard Time Accepting That There Is an Ongoing Cover-up of Research That Was Awarded a Nobel Prize and Featured in a Best-Selling Book. I Say That There Has Been a Cover-Up of Shiller’s Work. But It Is a Cover-Up Taking Place in Broad Daylight. Exceedingly Strange Stuff.”Commentor on One of my Value Walk Columns: “You Are Only Mad Because Shiller Did Not Give You a Binary Response (Buy/Sell) to His View of the Market. Market Models Are Not Binary or Absolute Systems and They Are Closer to Probability Systems…. You Are Directionally Correct But Still Pretty Far Off From the Correct Solution Because You Are […]

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  • “The Peer-Reviewed Research Is Never Going to Fizzle Out.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Looks like the land of Hocomania has just fizzled out. We’re all always going to need to know how stock investing works. The peer-reviewed research is never going to fizzle out. It’s amazing that Buy-and-Hold remains dominant today, I’ll give you that one. But the behavior we have seen from the Buy-and-Holders has been desperate behavior. That’s not a good sign for the long-term survival of the strategy, in my assessment. We’ll see. Rob Related Posts“The Bennett/Pfau Research Shows That Market Timing Is 70 Percent of What It Takes to Achieve Long-Term Stock Investing Success. So 70 Percent of What We Hear From Investment Experts Should Be Telling Us Ways to Avoid Getting Sucked in By the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold Garbage.”“This Is a Field Where People Don’t Admit Their Mistakes. The ‘Experts’ in This Field Feel That They Need to Persuade Their Clients That They Are Super-Human and Thus Incapable of Making Mistakes. It’s Not So. And We Are All Suffering in Serious Ways As a Result.”“People in the Investment Community Are Having Conversations With Themselves Every Day, We Have Seen Over and Over Again That the Experts in the Field Would Love to Be Able to Do Honest, Research-Based Work. ““Research-Based Investment Strategies Are Not Super Hot at a Time When the CAPE Value is 28. Who Would Have Thunk It?”“The Buy-and-Holders Feel Burned. They Want to Use the Fact That They Root Their Strategies in Peer-Reviewed Research to Shut Everybody Else Down. But, Since They Made a Mistake About What the Research Says, They Ended Up Shutting Themselves Down. This Is What Makes Them Angry.”“If Shiller’s Nobel-Prize-Winning Research Is Legitimate Research, the Dominant Investment Strategy Gets It Precisely Backwards. The Last 38 Years of Peer-Reviewed Research Shows That the Most Important Thing in Stock Investing Is to Always, Always, Always Practice Price Discipline (Long-Term Timing). The Buy-and-Holders Assure Us Relentlessly That There Is No Need to Practice Long-Term Timing, That It Might Even Be a Bad Idea to Do So. Huh? What the F?”

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  • “It Seems Like You Have Pretty Much Given Up on Most Everything.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: It seems like you have pretty much given up on most everything.  No work going on with the book.  No job.  Blog activity dropping off.  I guess you are not really worried about your perceived buy and hold crisis. I remain worried. I haven’t given up. There’s only so much that one person can do. I believe that I’ve done everything that one person could be expected to do. I’m at peace with that. I work on the book every day. Progress has been exceedingly slow. But I am seeing slow progress. I remain highly confident that I will get there. That’s my primary project today. When I talk to normal people about this matter, they have no difficulty accepting the basic realities. What’s lacking is a sense of urgency. People have never experienced the level of abusiveness that we have seen for 23 years from those posting in “defense” of Mel Lindauer and John Greaney. They often wish me luck. But they don’t feel confident of their abilities to say for sure how stock investing works. And they have zero desire to see that abusiveness turned on them. They don’t want to get involved. So they are okay with letting others solve the problem. They are complacent about it. I am not even a tiny bit complacent about it. But most people are (to the extent that they think about the matter at all). That’s where things stand. I believe that a huge price drop followed by an economic crisis (which is inevitable sooner or later if Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research) may change that. But we’ll have to wait and see to find out for sure. If/when we see another Buy-and-Hold Crisis, I’ll do what I can to help us get out of it and to insure that we never see another one. I can do no more and I can do no less. I am of course frustrated that we are not today seeing the benefits of such a wonderful advance in our understanding of how stock investing works. It’s painful to think about the lost opportunities. But the other way of looking at it is that we might have never achieved that advance in the first place and we did. So […]

    (4 Comments)

  • “There’s One Major Flaw. The Price of Stocks Is Set By the People Who Own Them. There Is Nothing to Stop Those People From Setting the Price of Stocks at Artificial Levels, From Creating Irrational Exuberance That Will Fool Them for a Time Into Thinking That Their Holdings Are Worth More Than They Really Are Worth.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Shocker!  Silly me thinking that you should have a book done since it has been over 10 years. I believe that Greaney should have corrected the error in his retirement study (it lacks a valuation adjustment) within 24 hours of the moment it was brought to his attention (the morning of May 13, 2002). There’s obviously some strange forces at play here that are causing things to play out in ways in which they ordinarily do not play out. Shiller discovered the secret of stock investing. Stocks are an amazing asset class that offers an average annual return of 6.5 percent real. What could be better? There’s one major flaw. The price of stocks is set by the people who own them. There is nothing to stop those people from setting the price of stocks at artificial levels, from creating irrational exuberance that will fool them for a time into thinking that their holdings are worth more than they really are worth. Shiller showed us how to overcome irrational exuberance, to engage in valuation-based market timing and thereby to avoid the crazy bull markets that you experience when you follow Buy-and-Hold strategies and the crazy bear markets that follow whenever you have crazy bull markets and the horrible economic collapses that follow whenever you lose the trillions of dollars of consumer buying power that you always lose in a crazy bear market. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be any downside to this amazing advance in understanding. But there is one. Since irrational exuberance is the cancer of the personal finance realm, adopting a strategy that makes it impossible for irrational exuberance to grow adds rationality to the investment advice field. If we were starting fresh, everyone would agree that that is super. But we are not starting fresh. Buy-and-Holders have been arguing against rationality, saying that there is no real need for market timing, for as long as there has been a Buy-and-Hold strategy. That “idea” is of course absurd. We have thousands of markets and price discipline is critical in every one. So it is a pretty out there idea to believe that the stock market is the sole exception. But the Buy-and-Holders did not have Shiller’s research available to them when they […]

    (2 Comments)

  • “Anything Good That Seems to Come About Because of Buy-and-Hold Comes Not From the Strategy But From the Productivity of the U.S. Economy.”

    Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Half of Americans have no retirement savings, just like. Yet here you are, telling a bunch of successful millionaires that you are right and they are all wrong. Who is dishing out the empty calories??? Anything good that seems to come about because of Buy-and-Hold comes not from the strategy but from the productivity of the U.S. economy. Buy-and-Hold encourages people to invest in stocks and stocks are an amazing asset class because of the productivity of the U.S. economy. The thing that is distinctive about Buy-and-Hold is that it encourages the creation of irrational exuberance to the max and that only subtracts and never adds. Irrational exuberance makes it impossible for people to know how much genuine wealth they have accumulated and that makes effective financial planning impossible. It would be better to let people know what the research says. Then they could practice price discipline re their purchases of stocks as they do with the purchases of everything else they buy. In a world in which most investors acted in their self-interest and practiced price discipline, stock prices would be self-regulating. That would mean no more bull markets and no more bear markets and no more economic collapses. All of the good associated with stocks and none of the bad. Investor heaven. Rob Related Posts“The Losses That We Need to Cover as a Result of the Continued Promotion of Buy-and-Hold ‘Strategies’ are $24 Trillion, $6 Trillion More Than the Entire Federal Debt of $18 Trillion, Constituting All the Annual Budget Deficits Going Back to the Days of George Washington Added Together. Buy-and-Hold Is Truly Bad Stuff.”“Valuation-Informed Indedxing (Market Timing!) Just Permits the Economic Realities to Assert Themselves More Quickly.”“There’s a Drop in the 1960s and 1970s, When We Were Recovering from the High Stock Prices of the Early 1960s. Look at the Years After the Early 1980s, When the Bull Market That We Are Currently in Was Beginning. Consumer Spending Is a Rocket Ship. When Stock Prices Drop 70 Percent (We Usually Drop to a CAPE of 8 When a Bull Market Comes to an End), You Are Going to See That Rocket Ship Reverse Course. How Could It Be Otherwise?”“If Irrational Exuberance Is a Real Thing (I Believe That It Is), Then There’s […]

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What’s Here

  • Bennett/Pfau Research (62)
  • Beyond Buy-and-Hold (117)
  • Bill Bengen & VII (8)
  • Bill Bernstein & VII (4)
  • Bill Schultheis & VII (2)
  • Brett Arends and VII (1)
  • Carl Richards & VII (8)
  • Daily Caller Articles (10)
  • Economics — New and Improved! (103)
  • Financial Highway Column (11)
  • From Buy/Hold to VII (394)
  • Guest Blog Entries (96)
  • Index Universe & VII (11)
  • Intimidation of VII Advocates (66)
  • Investing Basics (535)
  • Investing Experts (97)
  • Investing Strategy (56)
  • investing theory (23)
  • Investing: The New Rules (120)
  • Investor Psychology (95)
  • J.D. Roth & VII (17)
  • Joe Taxpayer & VII (14)
  • John Bogle & VII (97)
  • Larry Evans and VII (12)
  • Lindauer/Greaney Goons (475)
  • Michael Kitces & VII (43)
  • Mike Piper & VII (31)
  • Podcasts (200)
  • Reactions to Pfau Silencing (71)
  • Reality Checker (4)
  • Return Predictor (12)
  • Risk Evaluator (11)
  • Rob Arnott & VII (4)
  • Rob Bennett (306)
  • Rob E-Mails Seeking Help (67)
  • Rob's E-Mails to Researchers (1)
  • Robert Shiller & VII (105)
  • Roger Wohlner and VII (5)
  • Saving Strategies (23)
  • Scenario Surfer (3)
  • Scott Burns & VII (8)
  • Silencing of Wade Pfau (97)
  • Strategy Tester (5)
  • SWRs (89)
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  • Uncategorized (24)
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  • VII Column (720)
  • Wall Street Corruption (363)
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Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group